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After senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader O Rajagopal broke the party’s jinx in 2016 by winning its first seat in the Kerala Legislative Assembly, poll pundits predicted there would be no turning back for the saffron party in the state. However, the 2021 election turned out to be a damp squib for the BJP, which was unable to increase its seats and also lost its only seat in Nemom to its arch rival, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI[M])
Though the seat slipped away from the BJP, the party has been able to raise its vote share in the state. As per the data available at the Election Commission, the BJP’s vote share only slightly increased from 10.53% in 2016 to 11.3% in 2021. However, it showed a sharp increase to 16.8% in the general election of 2024, when BJP’s Suresh Gopi won from the Thrissur seat.
This vote share went down to 14.76 % in the local body elections of 2025. But major local bodies, including Thiruvananthapuram corporation, Thripunitura and Palakkad municipalities, went to the BJP.
This term, the BJP has been strategically focusing on around 40 seats where it has scored well during the recent local body elections. Among these, top priority has been given to seats such as Nemom, Palakkad, Manjeswaram, Kazhakoottam and Thrissur.
Apart from these constituencies, the party is seen as a strong force in Kasargod, Malampuzha, Attingal and Chattannur, where it was a runner-up in the last Assembly election.
Nemom
One of the first candidatures announced by the BJP was that of its state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar in Nemom Assembly constituency in Thiruvananthapuram district. As per a C Voter pre-poll survey, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has a high chance of winning the seat.
Rajeev is contesting against sitting MLA V Sivankutty of the CPI(M), who beat Rajagopal and closed the BJP’s single account in Kerala in 2021. Congress has fielded its former MLA KS Sabarinathan. Sabarinathan too is enjoying the success of increasing the tally of the United Democratic Front (UDF) in Thiruvananthapuram corporation in the recent local body election.
This makes it a strong triangular fight in Nemom. The CPI(M), which scraped through by a narrow margin of 3,949 votes in 2021, is feeling the heat of BJP’s intense campaign. In fact, reports said that Sivankutty was initially reluctant to contest from this seat this time but was persuaded by the CPI(M). The party feared that Sivankutty’s absence would lead to speculations of CPI(M) helping the BJP win.
It is an existential crisis also for the Congress, which has faced allegations of a deal with the BJP ever since Rajagopal won the seat in 2016 and has lagged in third place since.
Deals are in the news this time too in Nemom after the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) openly announced its support for the CPI(M) candidate. Announcing its support for Sivankutty, the SDPI claimed that the CPI(M) local leadership had sought their support.
The high vote share gained by the BJP during the Thiruvananthapuram corporation election has raised the NDA’s expectations. Of the 23 wards of the Thiruvananthapuram corporation, which comes under Nemom constituency, 17 went with the NDA. Also, areas under the Nemom Assembly constituency have largely favoured Rajeev in the Lok Sabha election, where he lost to Congress’ Shashi Tharoor in 2024. Rajeev had a clear lead in the Nemom, Kazhakoottam and Vattiyoorkavu Assembly segments in the last general election.
Palakkad
If the show of strength during campaigns is an indicator, the BJP is witnessing an upward momentum in the Palakkad constituency. This is a seat from where the Congress had back-to-back victories. The BJP candidate is Sobha Surendran, one of the senior leaders of the party. In 2016, Sobha was instrumental in pushing CPI(M) to the third position in Palakkad, while she came second. Since then, the contest has been between Congress and BJP. Though the constituency has supported Congress in the past two elections, the situation is a bit tight this time.
The Congress is facing the battle with the baggage of its former MLA Rahul Mamkootathil, whom it had to dismiss from the party over a series of sexual harassment cases. To turn public sentiment in their favour, the party has fielded actor-director Ramesh Pisharody, a long-term supporter of Congress. The Left, on the other hand, has brought NMR Razack, a businessman, on board.
Though BJP’s heavyweight, metroman E Sreedharan, tasted defeat in the seat in the 2021 election, the party hopes that winning the Palakkad municipality for the last three consecutive terms will be favourable to Sobha.
The belief in a possible win for Sobha rests on the fact that she has consistently increased the BJP’s vote share wherever she has contested, be it Palakkad, Alappuzha or Kazhakoottam. She was also able to consolidate significant support from sections of the Ezhava community. This support is likely to carry on to Palakkad as well. There is little doubt that Sobha remains a strong crowd-puller. Yet, there is no visible “Sobha wave” on the ground.
Sobha might also suffer due to in-party fighting. A party source in Palakkad said that district president Prasanth Sivan was not participating in her campaign, putting in occasional appearances.
Prasanth is said to belong to the C Krishnakumar faction, and none of Krishnakumar’s supporters have extended their support to her. While Krishnakumar is contesting from Malambuzha, Prasanth had been eyeing a ticket for Palakkad.
Sobha has been working in the constituency for a considerable period and was not a last-minute candidate. When TNM visited Palakkad on March 22, she had already covered nearly half the constituency.
Kazhakoottam
Kazhakoottam is another prominent seat where the BJP has high expectations. Former Union Minister V Muraleedharan is giving a tough fight to former Devaswom minister and sitting MLA Kadakampally Surendran of CPI(M). T Sarath Chandra Prasad is the Congress candidate.
Kazhakoottam is a constituency where the Sabarimala gold theft case, a topic highlighted by both UDF and NDA in their campaign, could have an impact. Though Kadakampally was never listed as an accused in the case, the fact that the issue happened during his tenure and the two-term MLA’s close association with some of the accused has put him in a tight spot.
Kadamkampally wrested the seat from MA Vahid of the Congress in 2016. Though Kadakampally managed to retain the seat then, the BJP’s presence in the second position has remained a threat to the Left. That year, Muraleedharan secured over 42,000 votes, pushing the then-sitting MLA Vahid to the third position.
Kadakampally retained his seat again in 2021 while BJP candidate Sobha Surendran came second. However, Sobha’s share of 40,193 votes was slightly less than what Muraleedharan gained the previous year.
A recent pre-poll survey by Mathrubhumi News said that the contest was tight between CPI(M) and BJP, with the former showing a slight edge.
Manjeswaram
The poll picture in Manjeswaram is starkly different from the rest of Kerala. Here, the fight is between the UDF constituent Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), represented by AKM Ashraf, and the BJP represented by K Surendran. Manjeswaram, which shares its border with Karnataka, has been witnessing a tight contest since 2016.
That year, BJP’s then state president K Surendran lost to IUML candidate PB Abdul Razzak with a slender margin of just 89 votes. It is said that BSP candidate K Sundara, with close resemblance to the name of K Surendran, played spoilsport by gaining 467 votes.
In the next Assembly election, Surendran again lost, but the margin was only 745 votes. Surendran is hopeful of wresting the seat from IUML. However, sitting MLA AKM Ashraf is confident of repeating his 2021 win. CPI(M) has fielded KR Jayananda as its candidate.
The minority vote consolidation is likely to work against Surendran. The last-minute withdrawal of the nomination by SDPI candidate KM Ashraf has caused speculation that the outfit would support UDF. The SDPI stated that they withdrew their candidature so that it would not split secular votes.
“AKM Ashraf is a popular figure in the Manjeshwaram constituency. “Many CPI(M) sympathisers also vote for Ashraf so that the BJP doesn't win. It is a constituency of cross-voting,” says Rahman, a voter.
Though Ashraf has an edge, it is expected to be a tight contest.
Thrissur
Thrissur district has traditionally been a stronghold of the Communist Party of India (CPI), much like Kannur is for the CPI(M). In 2016, CPI’s VS Sunil Kumar won the Thrissur seat with 42.19% of the vote, while Padmaja Venugopal, contesting for the UDF, secured 36.7%.
In 2021, CPI’s P Balachandran won the seat by a narrow margin of just 946 votes, while Padmaja came second.
This time, Padmaja, the daughter of former Congress Chief Minister K Karunakaran, is contesting as a BJP candidate.
Padmaja’s confidence emanates from the fact that in 2024, BJP’s Suresh Gopi won the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat. This is the first time the BJP managed such a feat.
The Congress candidate is former Thrissur mayor Rajan J Pallan, a popular face in the constituency. CPI is experimenting with poet and writer Alamcode Leelakrishnan.
If Padmaja manages to retain a considerable portion of the Congress votes she secured in the last election, then Rajan Pallan is in trouble.
BJP sympathisers say that factionalism within the Congress was the main reason for Padmaja’s defeat last time as a UDF candidate. “This time she is contesting without anyone working against her, in a constituency where the BJP lost by just 4,000 votes,” says Pankajakshan, a BJP sympathiser.
Another perspective is that Suresh Gopi’s popularity has declined, which could affect the BJP’s prospects in the Assembly elections. Supported by Christian community votes, this support base might have dwindled for the BJP in the face of increasing hostility against Christians across the country.
“Christian votes have majorly helped Suresh Gopi to win elections in 2024. We agree with that, but in the last year, those votes have come back to UDF,” a priest from Thrissur said.
BJP shifts election pattern
Political scientist G Gopakumar said that Kerala, which has long shown bipolar politics, has shifted to tripolar politics with the emergence of the BJP as a strong force. He said the party's winning chances in seats like Nemom, Kazhakoottam and Palakkad were high. He also pointed out Thrissur as a constituency to watch for. Gopakumar predicted a close fight in Malampuzha between CPI(M)’s A Prabhakaran and BJP’s C Krishnakumar.
In this constituency, A Suresh, former personal assistant to the late CPI(M) leader VS Achuthanandan, is contesting as a UDF-backed independent candidate. Another constituency which faces a tough challenge from the BJP is Chathannur, where CPI has replaced sitting MLA GS Jayalal with R Rajendran. The NDA candidate is BB Gopakumar. Pushed to the third position in the last two Assembly elections, Congress has fielded Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee general secretary Sooraj Ravi.