It was on November 21 that Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami and Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam shared a stage with Home Minister Amit Shah. The duo made a grand announcement that the AIADMK BJP alliance in Tamil Nadu will continue. But for over a month, the BJP did not endorse this announcement, Union Minister Prakash Javadekar went a step ahead and chose not to comment on the alliance in his visit to Chennai last week. The BJP, that had hoped that actor Rajinikanth's party would change equations, had placed AIADMK in an inconvenient position.
But the political landscape in Tamil Nadu has changed dramatically- with Rajinikanth's announcement that he will not take the political plunge. This announcement may have left his fan club members disappointed, but one man will heave a sigh of relief- Edappadi Palaniswami.
Insiders in the BJP say that two reasons stopped the BJP leadership from announcing EPS as their choice for CM. Firstly, they were reluctant to allow any AIADMK leader to emerge as a tall figure in the state which they believed would hamper their expansion plans. Secondly, the BJP leaders hoped to stitch an alliance between BJP, AIADMK and Rajinikanth with the superstar projected as the leader of the coalition. Now, given the change in scenario, EPS’ position as the sole face of the alliance has been cemented and his close aides believe that it will be a matter of time before the BJP too publicly endorses him.
"Though some leaders in Delhi were okay with endorsing EPS, there was a lobby from Tamil Nadu which wanted the central leadership to wait till January to see how much traction Rajinikanth gets. With that plan falling flat, one can expect an announcement from BJP supporting AIADMK alliance and EPS," a source working with EPS said.
Bargaining power of PMK and DMDK curtailed
Several allies of the AIADMK too were reportedly being aloof and pricey with the hope that with possible talks with Rajinikanth in the offing, they can drive a hard bargain. Parties like the PMK and DMDK will now be more amiable with the ruling party, with their bargaining power dwindling.
Sources confirmed to TNM that surveys conducted for both the AIADMK and the DMK, indicated that Rajinikanth’s proposed party will dent the AIADMK’s fortunes more than the DMK's. While Rajinikanth had been ambiguous regarding his political stance on many issues, his repeated statements about ‘spiritual politics’ indicated that he would possibly vie for a vote bank similar to that of AIADMK. The anti-DMK votes would further split, leading to EPS’ position further diminishing. With his stardom coupled with his proximity to BJP leaders including PM Modi and HM Amit Shah, Rajinikanth posed a serious threat to EPS as an alternate leader of the pro-Hindu, anti-DMK, anti- Dravidian party vote bank.
In Tamil Nadu, while each party has its own loyal caste voters, some communities often oscillate between parties and these floating parties may also have lent their support to Rajinikanth. Sources in AIADMK say that several communities like Mutharaiyar, Nadar, Yadavar, Sourashtra, Reddiyar, Chettiar and Nayakkar would have favoured EPS in the upcoming elections but for Rajinikanth. With the political landscape changing, these communities may come back into the AIADMK fold, sources believe.
The AIADMK, after much internal negotiations, had announced EPS as its CM face. Many in the AIADMK also worried that the BJP’s delay in acknowledging EPS as the CM face will have a negative bearing on their prospects as well.
Recently when national leaders like Prakash Javadekar also refused to answer questions on the same, the AIADMK had been feisty in their response. On Sunday, AIADMK MP KP Munusamy, said at a party meeting that there can be no room for a coalition government and that the government will be headed by the AIADMK, sending a message to ally BJP.
And with Rajinikanth bowing out, the AIADMK has more room to become aggressive with BJP and form the alliance on its terms. By not doing something, Rajinikanth its seems has done a lot for Edappadi Palaniswami this poll season.