The Tamil Nadu Assembly will witness a floor test on May 13, and new Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay will have to prove his majority on the floor of the House.
Over the last few days, the political equations and the numbers have shifted rapidly. So let’s break down where things stand now.
The Tamil Nadu Assembly has 234 seats. But here, we have to exclude Vijay’s vacant Trichy east constituency and also the Speaker’s vote. That brings the effective strength of the House down to 232.
The halfway mark is 116. Which means Vijay needs the support of at least 117 MLAs to comfortably win the trust vote.
At the moment, Vijay appears to be in a safe and comfortable position.
The TVK has 106 MLAs. The Congress has extended support with 5 MLAs.
The Left parties together contribute 4 more, with 2 each from the CPI and CPI(M). The VCK has 2 MLAs, and the IUML has another 2.
That takes Vijay’s tall y to 119.
But then came a setback.
The Madras High Court has said that TVK MLA R Srinivasa Sethupathi, elected from Tirupattur, should not participate in Assembly proceedings for now. The election result had been challenged by DMK candidate and former minister KR Periakaruppan, who lost the election by one vote.
With Sethupathi unable to vote, Vijay’s effective strength comes down to 118. Even then, he remains above the majority mark.
And then comes the AIADMK’s CV Shanmugam factor.
A faction within the AIADMK led by CV Shanmugam has announced support for Vijay during the trust vote. The numbers within this camp have been fluctuating, but if we conservatively place it at 20 MLAs, Vijay’s tally rises to 138.
There is one more addition.
AMMK MLA TTV Dhinakaran’s party member Kamraj, who had initially alleged that a support letter in Vijay’s favour was forged, later stated on the floor of the Assembly that he would support the TVK government.
That pushes Vijay’s numbers to 139 ahead of the floor test.
It is more or less clear that Vijay will sail through the floor test. But the real challenge may begin after that.
The next few months will be crucial because Vijay’s numbers depend heavily on smaller allies such as the Congress, CPI, CPI(M), IUML, and the VCK. If even one or two allies decide to walk away, the government’s strength could quickly come under pressure.
That is where the CV Shanmugam faction becomes politically important.
For the TVK, maintaining an understanding with that AIADMK faction could offer some stability. But that also raises a larger political question: how will Vijay’s current allies react if the AIADMK becomes a formal part of the government? Will parties like the Congress, the Left, the IUML, or the VCK be comfortable sharing political space with a faction of the AIADMK?
Tamil Nadu politics has traditionally been shaped by two clear fronts. Voters have largely chosen one alliance over the other. But what is unfolding now could reshape those familiar political lines and create a political arrangement the state has rarely witnessed before.
