As nearly 200 countries gather in the Amazonian city of Belem for the 30th UN Climate Conference (COP30), India finds itself walking a delicate line. The country must meet the energy needs of its 1.4 billion people while proving that it can be a responsible and credible voice for the Global South in the global climate debate.
COP (Conference of the Parties) is a global climate meeting where countries gather to address the challenges of climate change. At COP, leaders negotiate climate agreements, assess progress, and set new actions to cut emissions and protect the planet.
The challenge is enormous. India’s economy is expanding rapidly, and so is its energy demand. Yet, the latest UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 shows that India’s emissions are projected to increase by only 1.4 percent this year, slower than in recent years. The Emissions Gap Report, published annually by the UN Environment Programme, compares the world’s current emission levels with what’s needed to keep global warming below agreed limits like 1.5°C. An early monsoon helped reduce cooling needs during peak summer, and with strong growth in renewables, the country saw a modest rise in coal consumption.
Despite this progress, the same report ranks India among the world’s six biggest emitters, along with China, the United States, the European Union, Russia and Indonesia. In 2024, India recorded the largest absolute increase in greenhouse gas emissions among the G20 nations, even though its per capita emissions remain below the global average.
“We are increasing capacity, but actual contribution to electricity is still not enough because that requires a revamp of distribution systems and a lot of capital investment to ensure renewable energy contributes effectively to the grid. Capacity is the first step but actualization requires infrastructure and capital investment,” said Dr Dhanasree Jayaram, assistant professor of geopolitics and co-coordinator of the Centre for Climate Studies at Manipal Academy of Higher Education.
Coal still accounts for nearly three-fourths of India’s energy use, powering industries, transport and households. Experts say this dependence will not vanish overnight, but the country’s investment in renewables is starting to reshape its energy map. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2030, India will be the world’s second-largest market for renewable energy growth, after China.
“This year India’s emissions have been record high, so it mismatches the idea of having 50 percent non-fossil fuel capacity. Emissions will keep growing for at least the next decade. Long term strategy becomes important. Net zero is too far away but requires front-loading action right now, which is lacking,” she added.
COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago acknowledged India’s growing influence in the clean energy transition. “And India is somehow doing the same (like China), because they also have brilliant companies and engineers and incredible people. They are going in the same direction. So we are going to have two major markets that will lower the price of this transition because both countries have embraced this transition in a very clear way,” he said on the opening day of the summit.
Yet, India’s leadership at COP30 comes with unfinished homework. The country has not yet submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plan — key documents that spell out how nations plan to cut emissions and cope with climate impacts in the coming decade. The new NDCs for 2031–2035 are expected to be a crucial marker of ambition, especially as COP30 marks ten years since the Paris Agreement.
“It is also crucial for India in many other ways because this happens every year when certain targets are being set and India’s next iteration of NDC is also coming up. India also needs to look at the gaps it needs to fill in its climate action because it seems to be doing well when it comes to expanding renewable energy capacity but what are the gaps, and what else does it want to join,” Dhanasree Jayaram said.
According to Srinivas Krishnaswamy, CEO of Vasudha Foundation and a leading expert on clean energy and climate policy, to ensure that India meets its 2070 Net Zero goal, “we would need ramping up renewables with storage at a faster pace, policies and programmes to increase adaptation capacities of communities and importantly put in place systems and processes to ensure that energy transition is not just a technology shift but particularly ensuring that impacting communities by the transition are also taken along in the transition journey.”
He added, “Perhaps for strategic reasons or otherwise, which we are not aware of, India as a country may not be as communicative to the global audience on its climate efforts. Though the recent BURs have made an attempt to present India’s actions fairly comprehensively, the gap in broader communication still remains.”
Delivering India’s statement at the Leaders’ Summit, Indian Ambassador to Brazil Dinesh Bhatia reaffirmed the country’s commitment to multilateralism and climate equity. “Between 2005 and 2020, we reduced emission intensity of our GDP by 36%, and the trend continues. Non-fossil power now accounts for over 50% of our total installed capacity, enabling us to reach our nationally determined contribution (NDC) target five years ahead of schedule. India has not only conserved but also expanded its forest and tree cover, which now stands at 25.17% of its total geographical area,” Bhatia said.
At the opening plenary of COP30, India delivered statements on behalf of two major developing country blocs — the BASIC group (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) and the Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDC). The statement reiterated the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities,” underlining that developed countries must take the lead in cutting emissions and financing transitions.
India called for a universally accepted definition of climate finance and stressed that adaptation funding needs to rise significantly, noting that vulnerable communities in developing nations face the harshest climate impacts despite contributing the least to global warming. The statement also highlighted the need for affordable access to clean technologies and cautioned against unilateral climate-related trade measures that could act as barriers for developing economies.
“There are many things India is talking about: adaptation financing for instance, which has been less focused upon until now, but there has been no consensus on the global goal on adaptation. The loss and damage mechanism continues to linger, and the funding mechanism is insufficient. Technology access is another area,” Dhanasree said.
India also joined 52 other nations in supporting Brazil’s newly launched Tropical Forests Forever Facility, an initiative offering annual payments to tropical forest countries that protect and expand their green cover. India’s tropical forests, spread across the Western Ghats, the Northeast and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, play a vital role in absorbing carbon and sustaining biodiversity.
Still, the broader global picture remains grim. According to the Global Carbon Project, fossil fuel emissions are projected to reach a record 38.1 billion tonnes this year, up 1.1 percent from 2024. The world is already 1.3°C warmer than the pre-industrial era, and without sharper action, the UN warns that global temperatures could rise by 2.8°C by the end of the century.
For India, this backdrop raises a fundamental question: can it both lead and demand fairness in global climate action? The country has long argued that wealthy nations, responsible for most historical emissions, must do more to cut carbon and finance the transition in developing economies.
Climate finance remains India’s biggest sticking point. The promised $100 billion per year from developed countries has yet to materialize fully, and without that support, India says poorer nations cannot shift away from fossil fuels fast enough. The country’s negotiators insist that climate action must go hand in hand with development, not come at its cost.
“The developed countries that have been historically responsible for climate change must and can support the transition of developing economies. The developed countries must not only honour their commitments but also expand climate finance,” Srinivas Krishnaswamy, CEO of Vasudha Foundation and a leading expert on clean energy and climate policy told TNM.
“Climate action must not be viewed as a burden but rather as an economic development opportunity. Leap-frogging and embracing a development pathway that is sustainable in nature is beneficial for the country,” he added.
As the world’s most populous democracy and one of its fastest-growing economies, India’s choices carry global weight. Its steady expansion of renewable power, moderation in coal growth and efforts to preserve forests show genuine intent. But as COP30 unfolds in the heart of the Amazon, the test for India is not just how much it can do at home, but whether it can persuade the world to deliver on promises made to the Global South.
For millions at home, the climate crisis is not an abstract global issue but a lived reality, in floods, droughts and extreme heat. And for India, leading at COP30 means making sure that climate justice is not just a slogan but a shared global responsibility.