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Kerala's political pendulum appears set to swing once again. Exit polls conducted after the conclusion of local body elections across the state are pointing to a victory for the United Democratic Front (UDF), dealing a blow to the Left Democratic Front (LDF)'s hopes of securing an unprecedented third consecutive term in power.
Surveys by Axis My India-India Today, People Pulse and News18 Vote Tracker show the UDF in the lead. Most estimates place the UDF between 70 and 90 seats. The LDF is projected to get around 49 to 65 seats. The NDA is expected to win only 0 to 3 seats. Polls by People’s Pulse show a similar trend.
The Manorama News-CVoter exit polls also predict a strong and comfortable comeback for the UDF, estimating that they will secure between 82 and 94 seats. The ruling LDF is expected to win between 44 and 56 seats, while the NDA is expected to secure 1 to 3 seats.
According to an India Today poll, the UDF is projected to secure about 44% vote share, while the LDF may get around 39% and the NDA about 14%.
Axis my India
LDF - 49 - 62
UDF - 78 - 90
NDA - 0 - 3
People Pulse
LDF - 55 - 65
UDF - 75 - 85
NDA - 0 - 3
CNN-News 18 Vote Tracker
LDF - 58 - 68
UDF - 70 - 80
NDA - 0 - 4
Manorama News-CVoter
LDF - 44 - 56
UDF - 82 - 94
NDA - 1 - 3
In 2021, most exit polls in Kerala correctly predicted that the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) would make history by retaining power, but significantly underestimated the scale of their victory. Only two polls - India Today-Axis My India and News 24-Today's Chanakya were close to the mark.
The LDF secured a landslide mandate with 99 seats, while the UDF was relegated to just 41.
In 2026, most pre-poll surveys predicted a highly competitive environment with a notable shift toward the United Democratic Front (UDF). While Manorama News–C Voter survey projected a slim edge for the UDF, Lok Poll predicted a clear majority for the UDF. The IANS-Matrize forecasts a slight advantage for the incumbent LDF. The News18 Vote Tracker described the race as a "near dead heat," highlighting a deeply polarized electorate where minor swings in vote share could ultimately decide whether Kerala continues its tradition of alternating power or grants the LDF a third consecutive term.
