Kasargod, irrespective of the varying political waves in the state, is a red bastion. In the 15 Lok Sabha elections held since 1957, the CPI(M) won the seat 12 times.
Between 1957 and 1967, none other than AK Gopalan, who is known as AKG - captured the seat. The Communist stalwart’s margin in 1957 was 5,145 votes, which increased in 1962 and 1967.
In 1971, the Left suffered a setback. Congress candidate Kadannappally Ramachandran defeated CPI(M)'s powerful leader EK Nayanar.
In 1980, the Congress won the seat with the help of Ramanna Ray. The victory was repeated in the next elections in 1984.
KP Satheesh Chandran Facebook Page
Then, from 1989 to 2014, Kasargod stood with the CPI(M) in all the elections. Sitting MP and P Karunakaran, who is also the son-in-law of AK Gopalan, had won in 2004 and 2009 as well.
This time, the CPI(M) has chosen a popular face in the constituency, KP Satheesh Chadran. The Congress, in a surprise move, picked its spokesperson Raj Mohan Unnithan, who is an outsider for the people of Kasargod. Ravish Tantri Kuntar of the BJP is the NDA candidate.
The declining margin of the Left
In 2004, Karunakaran won by a thumping margin of 1,08,256 votes. In 2009, it was reduced to 64,427 votes and further reduced to 6,921 in 2014. The steep fall in the margin had sent shock waves in the party.
In 2014, T Siddique of the Congress won 3,78,043 votes while Karunakaran secured 3,84,964 votes. K Surendran of the BJP had secured 1,72,826 votes.
This has prompted the CPI(M) to face the elections this time with all its strength. The change in the candidate can also be attributed to the party's decision to not give a seat to the same candidate more than two or three times.
Twin murders that shocked
Youth Congress workers Kripesh (22) and Sarath Lal (24) were hacked to death in February 2019. A Peethambaran, a local leader of the CPI(M), is the prime accused in the case. The murders caused much public outrage and put the party on defence.
Both the Congress and the BJP have been highlighting this during the campaign. The CPI(M), however, is hopeful of overcoming it with the public acceptance of its candidate, Satheesh Chandran. And that his influence in Neeleswaram and Uduma constituencies, where the party's vote share had considerably declined last time, will facilitate a strong comeback for the party.
UDF’s surprise candidate or LDF’s household name?
The Congress chose Raj Mohan Unnithan, who is known for his outspoken speeches and for his ability to take on anyone, irrespective of how strong his opponent is.
For instance, during the 2006 Assembly election, Raj Mohan took on CPI(M)'s senior leader and State Secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan at the latter party’s stronghold of Thalassery in Kannur. His remarkable performance affected Kodiyeri's victory margin, which was only 10,055.
In the 2016 Assembly elections, Raj Mohan was defeated by CPI(M’s) J Mercykutty Amma in Kundara constituency of Kollam.
Raj Mohan Unnithan Facebook Page
Raj Mohan has never contested the Parliamentary elections. The 2019 Lok Sabha election will be his maiden fight.
The lack of connections in the constituency and the dissent from a section of workers in the party is a setback for him.
KP Satheesh Chandran, on the other hand, is a household name in several parts of the constituency. He is a two-time MLA, who had represented Thrikkarippur constituency in the state Assembly. He was the party’s District Secretary twice and is also the LDF District Convener and CPI(M) State Committee member.
His humble lifestyle and hard work have made him one of the most admired leaders of the party in the district. He has strong roots in Kasargod since the time he began his political career working in the SFI in the early 80s. His clean image is a factor that could defend the other issues raised by his rivals.
BJP's presence in Kasargod
The BJP had secured the second position in Manjeswaram and Kasargod constituencies in the 2016 Assembly elections. The party’s vote share in the constituency is around 18 percent.
In the 2014 elections, the BJP’s vote share in Kasargod had increased by three percent. This time, by fielding Ravih Tantri Kuntar, a temple priest, the party pins its hopes on linguistic minorities in the northern parts of the district. If he polls more votes, it would split the vote share of the Congress.
Until the recent elections, BJP General Secretary K Surendran has been the party's face in several elections in Kasargod for over a decade. The party, this time, allotted Pathanamthitta to Surendran, where it has high hopes post the issues related to the young women’s entry into Sabarimala temple located in the district.
In the 2016 Assembly elections, Surendran lost in Manjeswaram constituency by merely 89 votes. He lost to his rival PB Abdul Razak of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML).
While Surendran polled 56,781 votes, Razak got 56,870 votes. CH Kunhambu of the CPI (M) went to the third position with 42,565 votes.
Surendran approached the High Court alleging that bogus votes were polled. In June 2017, the court asked voters to appear before it to give evidence. After Abdul Razak passed away October 2018, Surendran withdrew the plea in In February this year.
The Assembly segments that come under Kasargod Lok Sabha constituencies are Kalyasseri, Payyannur, Thrikkarippur, Kanhangad, Uduma, Kasargod and Manjeswaram. In all the seven constituencies, the sitting MLAs are from the Left Democratic Front.
In Kasargod and Manjeswaram, the Congress’s ally in the United Democratic Front, Indian Union Muslim League is powerful. This adds to the expectations of the Congress, although BJP has its major vote share in these constituencies. On the other hand, Kalyasseri and Payyyanur, which are in Kannur district, are Left fortresses.