While most of India elects its parliamentarians to the 17th Lok Sabha this poll season, in Tamil Nadu it will be an unofficial Assembly battle for the Edappadi Palaniswami-led AIADMK government. Last Monday, the Election Commission announced bye-polls to four pending Assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu. While the state went to polls to elect 38 Lok Sabha MPs and 18 MLAs on April 18, bye-elections to 4 Assembly seats will be held on May 19. The results of all three sets of elections will be declared on May 23.
This poll season for Tamil Nadu has come to occupy more significance than ever as the fate of the present dispensation hangs in the balance. So is the month-long gap between the two sets of bye-polls aiding the ruling party?
The numbers game
Normally, the strength of the state assembly is 235 of which 234 are elected members. However, as things stand, the current strength of the elected state assembly is 212. This is because 18 AIADMK MLAs were disqualified under the Anti Defection Law, 3 MLAs (AIADMK’s AK Bose, DMK’s M Karunanidhi and AIADMK’s R Kanagaraj) died in office and one MLA (Minister Balakrishna Reddy) was disqualified in view of his conviction in a rioting case. There are 114 AIADMK legislators (including the Speaker of the Assembly and three MLAs who contested on the AIADMK symbol), 88 DMK legislators, 8 Congress legislators, one IUML legislator and one independent MLA. The magic mark to form government is 118. Given that 22 seats are up for polls, the AIADMK will need to win at least 5 seats to comfortably stay in power.
Advantage AIADMK
Speaking to TNM, RK Radhakrishnan, Associate Editor of Frontline and senior journalist who has covered elections in Tamil Nadu for nearly three decades points out that the difference in polling dates for the 18 bye-polls and the four pending bye-elections offers the AIADMK government the chance to strategize, giving them the edge to stay in power. The Election Commission cited pending court cases on these polls for not having announced all 22 together.
“Unless it is a close contest, you will generally know who is winning which seat the moment polling is over. If it is an extremely close margin, you cannot know. The Election Commission has essentially given the AIADMK another chance. Based on their performance on April 18 where they are likely to win a minimum of 3-4 seats, they can strategize for the other four bye-polls,” he says.
‘Gap with a motive’
Speaking to TNM, DMK’s Organising Secretary RS Bharathi says that the party has already complained to the EC about the alleged ‘abuse of power’ by the present dispensation that has been exacerbated by the long gap. “We moved the Supreme Court (in March) over this very reason, that the long gap may lead to further complications. We wanted the bye-polls to be conducted together and earlier. But it kept getting delayed. It has been done with a motive.”
Bharathi cites Sunday’s statement by PMK chief S Ramadoss which called for a relaxation in the Model Code of Conduct in order to carry out welfare schemes, including the Rs 2,000 dole for families below the poverty line. "Government's help should be timely. A further delay of 37 days to provide the financial assistance schemes started by the central and state government's which have been temporarily stopped will not be useful," states Ramadoss' letter which also says that the MCC should remain in place only in the four pending bye-poll constituencies.
The government had earlier informed the Madras High Court that it had stopped the distribution of the special assistance ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. “The Election Commission should be neutral. If they are not, we will approach the court.” says the DMK leader.