As Karnataka goes to lockdown, one projection predicts 58,000 new daily cases by May 2

According to the state government's COVID-19 War Room, the average positivity rate in the state has been 14.5% for the last 7 days.
Man doing COVID-19 testing
Man doing COVID-19 testing

Karnataka is heading into another COVID-19-induced lockdown beginning on the night of Tuesday, April 27, but according to projections by experts, it will get a lot worse before it gets better. Data shared on Twitter by Bhramar Mukherjee, professor of Epidemiology and Chair of the Department of Biostatistics at the University of Michigan, has said the number of cases in a day will reach 58,000 in the next seven days, factoring in the average case count of 27,000 in the last seven days.

“Many of you asked about our analysis for Karnataka as the number of daily deaths have climbed recently. The effective R is high and at a plateau. Intensification of intervention measures may be needed,” she tweeted. 

This projection comes as Karnataka had reported a record high of 34,000-plus cases in a day on Sunday, with more than 20,000 cases recorded from Bengaluru alone. 

Patients in the state, especially Bengaluru, are struggling due to a high demand of ICU beds, oxygen supplies and ventilator beds as all available government hospitals are filled to near capacity. In Bengaluru, some critical patients are being ferried to nearby towns and cities, including in neighbouring Tamil Nadu, for urgent medical services. 

Beginning in April, Bengaluru saw an increase in recorded COVID-19 deaths, with 1,170 fatalities in the city. The number of related deaths for the month of March, February and January were 147, 88 and 66 respectively. 

The highest number of deaths earlier was recorded in July 2020 when 962 persons died in Bengaluru due to COVID-19.

According to the state government's COVID-19 War Room, the average positivity rate in the state has been recorded at 14.5% for the last seven days. With Kodagu at 19.8%, Bengaluru, Tumakuru and Hassan have a positivity rate of approximately 18%. Positivity rate is the measure of persons testing positive for the virus per 100 tests. 

At the end of March, the positivity rate across the state was less than 3%.


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