Of the 10 cows walking on the road, four went to eat the grass that was placed on the road. How many cows are left? This is the question posed by Kumaran Sir, a Maths teacher in a popular WhatsApp forward doing the rounds in Kerala. While the rest of the class, according to the joke, answers 'six', only Anthru says that the answer is 'none'. This bright student knows that if cows see grass, all of them will go towards it and not just the four specified by the teacher. For those who didn't get it, the joke is on the lockdown strategy implemented by the Kerala government.
The joke further reads, "Their maths is simple. If 100 people turn up when a shop is open for eight hours, how many will come if it is opened for four hours? Answer: 50. If 70 people travel in two buses operating in a day, how many will travel if only one operated? Answer: 35." The criticism has come up because of the rush that is evident on the streets and in the shops on the days that they are allowed to open in the state. On Fridays and Mondays, before and after the complete lockdown during the weekend, the rush is especially high and the roads are full of vehicles.
Kerala went under a complete lockdown on May 8 when the COVID-19 caseload was shooting up, with a Test Positivity Rate of 27%. The lockdown was eased from June 17 and the curbs were lifted in a phased manner. The government's strategy was to impose stricter restrictions on the basis of COVID-19 cases in each local body ― panchayats, municipalities and corporations ― while continuing to ease up restrictions statewide. As per this strategy, banks, commercial establishments and shops were allowed to function on alternate days. The government on July 13 announced a few more relaxations but these were not too different from the existing policy. Banks which were open to the public for three days a week so far, will work on all weekdays now. The complete weekend lockdown, however, will continue. Shops, other than those for essential services, will continue to function only on alternate days. But in some places where the TPR is high, shops have been allowed to open only once a week, triggering huge crowds.
However, despite these restrictions, the caseload of the state has not gone down. The TPR continues to be above 10% and saw a dip below this only a few times in the recent past. On July 15, the state recorded 13,773 new cases with a TPR of 10.95%
Info Clinic, a social media group comprising doctors who try to debunk myths and stigma related to diseases, has come out with suggestions to mitigate the situation. In an article titled 'Should COVID-19 restrictions be revised currently?', Info Clinic has termed the government's lockdown strategy impractical, unscientific and illogical. "For example, allowing private vehicles on alternate days on an odd-even number basis. Though this has been dropped, it is only now that the district administration took the call. It's sheer logic that when the number of public vehicles is restrained, it will lead to a rush and increase the transmission rate," the article reads.
Regarding the restrictions on the working hours of banks, the article says that it resulted in creating a bigger than usual crowd in banks, leading to a proportionate increase in transmission. "It should be kept in mind that banks function in buildings where there isn't much air circulation. What is more appropriate is to increase the working hours of the banks and provide more online services. It's also inconvenient for people to resume work that they had suspended during the lockdown. The existing strategy should be revised," says the article.
The weekend lockdown, too, is adding to the problem. Regulating the working hours of shops and other commercial establishments have also led to a rush during the permitted time. "It would be appropriate for these establishments to operate for longer hours so that the rush can be reduced. People should follow proper COVID-19 behaviour, but it's not right to say that the restrictions are necessary to sensitise people about the situation. Even toddlers in the state know about COVID-19. There are lakhs of people who have lost jobs and their livelihood due to the lockdown. Hence, the situation should be such that income can be ensured for everyone but with restrictions. If not, the consequences will be huge. The restrictions in place currently are impractical, illogical and unscientific," the article reads.
Kerala Vyapari Vyavasayi Ekopana Samithi, the largest organisation of traders in the state, has also urged the government to allow shops and commercial establishments to be open on all days. On July 12, the traders in Kozhikode clashed with the police on the streets over the same issue.
The Kerala chapter of the Indian Medical Association (IMA) has termed Kerala's lockdown as unscientific and ineffective. In a letter addressed to Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on July 14, the IMA has said that the current lockdown restrictions actually encourage people to crowd near shops and establishments. "We shouldn't follow a strategy that attracts crowds. If shops are closed for a few days and kept open on other days, there will naturally be a rush. Or we have to go for a complete lockdown. Reining in the crowd by partially opening shops won't work because it's impractical, and we can't ask only so many people to visit shops on the days it's open. To deal with mob psychology, we need to increase the number of business hours," Dr Sulphi Noohu, state president-elect of IMA Kerala told TNM.
The IMA has also suggested focusing on vaccination as the prime tool to contain the transmission of the virus. "Vaccination has got wide acceptance in Kerala. But the infrastructure for carrying it out is not sufficient. If the vaccination drive is carried out solely with the human resources of the Health Department, it will take longer to vaccinate everyone. Setting up three or four teams in addition to that of the Health Department and assigning slots on a ward to ward basis will help," the IMA has said.
"That makes sense and that's how it was done in other countries," says Dr Jacob John, a renowned virologist. Jacob John is the former head of the Indian Council of Medical Research's (ICMR) Centre for Advanced Research in Virology and Professor Emeritus at the Christain Medical College, Vellore. However, he notes that the lockdown strategy alone is not solelt responsible for the spread of the virus in the state, and that the public needs to maintain COVID-19 appropriate behaviour everywhere, including in personal interactions.
"One can't say that the COVID-19 cases are high because of this [the lockdown strategy] as one can contract the virus from anywhere. Intra-familial spread is 100%. The Delta variant is like a heat-seeking missile. Yes, it will spread faster if anything that attracts a crowd is there. The strictest measures of wearing masks and maintaining physical distancing are the only ways to slow down the spread," he says, adding that restrictions on alternate days isn't going to help. "The whole idea is to reduce the number of people interacting with each other. That has to be done through public education. The way ahead is to restrict the number of people going into a shop and maintain distance between them. Calling for disciplined behaviour would be more helpful rather than closing down for some days. If it's closed down for one day, people who wanted to shop will go shopping the next day," Dr Jacob John says.