On March 24, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that the nation will enter a lockdown beginning midnight, lakhs of workers, who had moved to places far away from their hometowns for jobs, did not expect to be left in the lurch with just four hours’ notice.
Lakhs of migrant workers were stranded in different parts of the country, without means of survival. When all they wanted was to reach the relative comfort and familiarity of their homes, they were subject to police action on their way across state borders.
There has been widespread criticism about the way the governments— both central and state— have handled the situation. In Tamil Nadu, economist and Director at the Institute of Development Alternatives (IDA), Chennai, J Jeyaranjan has been vocal in his criticism of the central government for its handling of the issue. In this interview with TNM, he speaks about the lockdown, the plight of migrant workers and the economy.
I am not able to judge it because I am not in a position to say whether such a hurried lockdown was necessary or not. That is the job of public health experts and not of economists like me. It is a public health decision. I can only talk about the consequence of doing it and not about its need.
What we do know is that because it was done on short notice, the most underprivileged people are left high and dry. We (economists) know only that.
If the economy was in better shape, it would have ended up in shambles due to COVID-19. Now we have no idea what is going to happen. Firstly, we don't know when this phase will end. We don't know how many days this will go on for and how long it will take to recover.
Usually, when we speak about these things, we will have a precedent to base our views on. Now this is an unprecedented event and hence, we are not able to imagine the consequences of the pandemic on the economy. The growth estimate is falling day on day. So it is a big question mark.
Migrant workers are important for southern states and states like Maharashtra and Gujarat. These states, mainly, have gone through fertility transition, which means that the rate at which the population grows is lesser than the replacement level (meaning every generation is less populous than the one before).
Secondly, the economy in these states are very vibrant.
In states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, etc, population growth is twice or thrice that of the replacement levels. This has created a sort of polarisation, because in the seven industrially vibrant states, labour is required but the availability of labour is less. On the contrary, in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, labour is abundant but there are no opportunities to work. As a result, there is a lot of migration from the centre towards the west and the south. That has been happening on a huge scale in the last 10-15 years.
Even in Tamil Nadu, in jobs that require more than 5-10 people, they prefer migrant workers because of two main reasons.
One, they will be regular and stable in their employment. They won't suddenly leave to find a new job or new city. Two, their salaries are a lot less when compared with workers from the same city/town or even state because they usually negotiate for food and stay along with salary and it ends up being a more economical option for the employers.
In fact, migrant workers have organised themselves into specific sectors in Tamil Nadu. For example, the front office work in most hotels in Tamil Nadu are operated by people from the northeast, while the backend operations are handled by Bengalis and Odiyas. Similarly flooring work will be done by people from Rajasthan etc. The market has segmented itself based on the states from where the labourers hail. The situation has become such that the industrial hubs around Chennai will not function without these migrant labourers. They have become indispensable for work.
They were not considered as human beings at all. They were thrown on the streets and left at the mercy of nature. The governments did nothing.
The central government has huge financial muscle and states are the ones dealing with the people directly. So the Centre should keep the resources and the state should execute it. That is the system we have in place. That's how the Constitution has been written.
Suddenly, they announced the lockdown and nobody bothered about the migrant workers. They lost work, they didn't have money, food, or a place to stay and so they started walking back home. It is a simple human reaction.
The clampdown was brought in to stall the spread of the virus. To ensure that, the governments must have instructed people to stay back wherever they are and provided them with basic necessities like food and a place to stay. That was not taken care of.
Instead of closing down all schools and colleges, some of them could have been set up to accommodate the workers. The Food Corporation of India warehouses are overflowing with grains. It could have been given to these workers along with provisions. The government has not done that.
They (the judges) are occupying the highest positions and they are very insensitive. This middle-class arrogance has seeped into the judiciary. What else can I say about their attitude?
These are fellow citizens whom they are talking about. If they are going to turn towards them and tell them 'when you have rice and lentils, why do you need money?', where do we, as human beings, go from this point?
This is pathetic money. At least the government of Tamil Nadu is trying to do whatever is possible with available resources. But the Centre is not opening its kitty at all. It is just rehashing the schemes that were already in existence and packaging it very cleverly. It is all mere words.
We need to wait and watch since we do not know the kind of damage the pandemic would inflict on the economy. We do not know when this is going to end. We do not see the end of the tunnel or the light there. Without that how do we assess?