The Left Democratic Front (LDF) will win 82 to 91 of the 140 Assembly constituencies in Kerala in the April election, predicts the C Voter pre-poll survey for Asianet News. The United Democratic Front (UDF) will get 46 to 54 seats, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), three to seven seats, and the others, zero to one, says the survey. This is the second pre-poll survey done on the channel. The survey predicted that LDF will win 42% of the votes, while UDF will get 37% and NDA will get 18%. In 2016, LDF won 91 seats, UDF won 47 seats while the NDA won just one seat.
A caste-based division of the survey that recorded replies from 11,000 people across 50 of the 140 total seats in the state shows that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA will get most of its votes from Nairs and other dominant caste Hindus, the UDF will get its majority votes from Syrian and Orthodox Christians while the LDF's vote bank is among the Dalits and Other Backward Caste Hindus. Muslim votes are almost equally divided among the UDF and LDF.
In north Kerala, the CPI(M)-led LDF would get 42 to 45 of the Assembly seats and the Congress-led UDF would win 13 to 16 of them, predicts the survey. The NDA would get two to four seats, it says. It is to be noted that the editors of Asianet who participated in the show did air their doubts over the figure projected for the NDA in north Kerala and maintained that 4 as an upper limit seemed impossible.
The survey gives 17 to 20 seats for the LDF in central Kerala and 21 to 24 seats for the UDF. The NDA is predicted to get zero to one seat there. In south Kerala, the LDF would win 23 to 26 seats, the UDF 12 to 15 seats and the NDA one to two seats, predicts the survey.
The survey was done between March 18 and 27 across 50 of the 140 assembly constituencies. As many as 11,368 voters from 277 cities and 824 villages were included in the survey.
The survey also discussed many key issues such as Sabarimala, KIIFB, the PSC controversy, the IUML fielding a woman candidate in many years, the deep sea trawling controversy and so on. On the question of Sabarimala being an important topic for the election, 39% of the voters surveyed said yes while 49% said no. Eleven per cent are of the opinion it can't be said.
Another important question discussed was about Muslim voters - who were largely the traditional vote bank of the UDF and its ally the Indian Union Muslim League -- now leaning towards the Left. At least 45% of the participants said yes while 42% said no and the remaining 13% said 'can't say'. However, among the Muslim participants included in the survey, only 38% said yes and 45% said no, while the rest couldn't say for sure.
About the controversy of the contract the state government made with a US company for deep sea trawling boats, 53% of the participants said that it will affect the LDF votes. Another 43% said it won't affect the LDF votes while the remaining 4% had no say on it.
Forty one per cent of the participants voted for the incumbent Pinarayi Vijayan as Chief Minister, 27% wanted Oommen Chandy, 11% chose KK Shailaja, seven per cent for Ramesh Chennithala, while six per cent chose K Surendran.