Tamil Nadu: Who’s winning this election? | Let Me Explain | Pooja Prasanna

Tamil Nadu's politics has always been about more than elections — identity, language, social justice, and a culture shaped as much by ideas as personalities.

For decades, this has been a two-front contest. And of course, the DMK and AIADMK still remain the main players.

But as Tamil Nadu votes on April 23, that equation is beginning to stretch, 

with actor Vijay entering the fray, 

the BJP pushing for a foothold in a state it has long struggled to break into, 

and competing visions of development and identity in play.

This election is much much more layered than it appears.

So join me and my colleague Azeefa Fathima as we look at the eight factors that are really shaping this contest.

Let me explain.

Factor 1: Alliances

Pooja: Tamil Nadu elections are rarely fought by parties alone. They’re fought, and often decided, by alliances.

This goes back to 1967, when the DMK first came to power through a broad coalition. Since then, no national party has won here on its own.

This time, the DMK leads the Secular Progressive Alliance — a broad coalition that includes the Congress, Left parties, Dalit groups like the VCK, and several regional players.

This is not just a large alliance. It’s tried and tested, and delivered a big win in 2021 and has continued to perform strongly in national elections as well.

Azeefa: On the other side, the AIADMK is leading an alliance with the BJP, PMK, and others.

But this front comes with visible tensions. Even AIADMK leaders have described alliances as a “marriage of convenience.”

BJP brings a certain protection from central agencies, something that can be valuable. But it comes with a major discomfort in a state where Dravidian politics has historically resisted Hindutva politics.

Pooja: Then there’s the Pattali Makkal Katchi, which has a strong Vanniyar base, but also internal tensions between S Ramadoss and Anbumani Ramadoss. 

Azeefa: Its alignment alongside leaders like Porkodi Armstrong also shows how very different social blocs are being brought together.

Pooja: So the question is simple. Is this a cohesive alliance or a tactical one? And even if it is tactical, will voters actually buy it?

Factor 2: Anti-incumbency vs continuity

Pooja: The next question is familiar – is there anti-incumbency? 

Azeefa: After five years in power, signs of dissatisfaction do exist — around law and order, rising costs, and everyday governance. 

There are often two types of anti-incumbacy waves. One can be against the entire administration, you know, the people right at the top. In this case, CM Stalin and his son and deputy CM Udhyanidhi Stalin. 

Pooja: When that happens, it is rarely possible to escape the wrath of the people. 

Then it can be against individual MLAs. And the DMK seems to be responding to that.

The party has reportedly dropped around 60 sitting MLAs, including some ministers, and brought in new faces.

Azee: This includes dropping three of the 34 incumbent ministers – R Gandhi, T Mano Thangaraj and N Kayalvizhi Selvaraj. However, Gandhi’s son Vinoth Gandhi got the ticket for his father’s Ranipet constituency.

That suggests it is trying to contain dissatisfaction before it becomes a larger anti-government wave.

Pooja: At the same time, the DMK is making a different pitch – continuity. The argument is that things are working, so don’t disrupt it.

The state has seen strong growth, steady investment, expanding welfare, and administrative stability.

And there is another crucial factor. What is the alternative?

Azee: Because anti-incumbency only works when there is a convincing alternative. And right now, that space looks fragmented.

The AIADMK is still rebuilding after leadership changes, and as we already pointed out, its alliance with BJP is not comfortable for all its voters. And newer entrants like TVK are still finding their footing.

Pooja: So this election is not just about whether there is anti-incumbency. It’s about whether that dissatisfaction can consolidate into a vote base, or whether DMK’s argument that continuity is safer than uncertainty – will hold.

Factor 3: Tamil Nadu vs BJP

Pooja: There’s also a larger political narrative shaping this election. The DMK’s primary political opponent remains the AIADMK. But there has been a sharp focus on BJP as an ally of the AIADMK. While they are still a junior partner in the alliance, the DMK has framed this electoral contest as Tamil Nadu versus BJP. With this, the DMK has positioned itself as the flagbearer of Dravidian politics as well as federalism.  

This draws on a long history– of language politics, state autonomy, and the Dravidian movement.

Azee: But this election, that argument has sharpened. Because the BJP is now directly in the picture, trying to expand in a state where it has historically struggled to gain a foothold. And the AIADMK’s alliance with the BJP adds another layer to this.

The DMK’s argument is that even if the AIADMK is the face, power lies elsewhere. That, decisions are being influenced from Delhi. In an interview with us, minister Palanivel Thiaga Rajan made this point.

Pooja: And this plays out across multiple issues.

Take NEET, which has been a long-running topic of concern, where the Tamil Nadu government has opposed a centralised exam system, arguing it disadvantages state board students.

Take the language debate, where the two-language policy versus three-language formula continues to be politically charged.

Azee: Even cultural debates – like the interpretation of Tamil history, including sites like Keezhadi — have been drawn into this larger political framing.

So this is also about identity and autonomy, and also about whether Tamil Nadu’s politics continues to be shaped primarily from within the state, or influenced from outside it.

Pooja: And this brings us to the next piece of this election — federalism. 

Federalism isn’t just an abstract idea in Tamil Nadu. It’s a political issue that shows up again and again.

You can see it right now in the debate around delimitation.

Azee: There’s a growing concern in southern states that if parliamentary seats are redrawn based purely on population, states like Tamil Nadu — which have controlled population growth — could actually lose political representation.

The DMK has consistently positioned itself as a defender of federalism. Not just politically, but in multiple ways.

Pooja: Whether it be linguistic federalism, resisting what it sees as the imposition of Hindi.

Or fiscal federalism, raising concerns about how much tax Tamil Nadu contributes versus how much it gets back.

Or even administrative federalism, pushing back against centrally designed schemes and policies.

And many of these questions, from NEET to GST to funding patterns, are now directly affecting governance on the ground. And politically, it ties back to the same core argument.

Who decides for Tamil Nadu? The state itself or the Union government?

And in many ways, this election becomes a referendum on that question too.

Factor 4: Personality politics and the Vijay factor

Azee: Tamil Nadu’s politics has always been shaped by personalities. From Karunanidhi to Jayalalithaa, leadership here has been deeply personal, not just administrative.

After their deaths, that briefly changed. There was no towering figure, and politics seemed to shift towards alliances and ideology.

The AIADMK was dealing with an internal churn. In the DMK, MK Stalin was still stepping into the role. And it felt like Tamil Nadu might shift back towards more ideological, coalition-driven politics.

Pooja: But that moment may now be over, because personality is back at the centre.

Stalin is now firmly the face of the DMK. Edappadi K Palaniswami is leading the AIADMK. Narendra Modi remains the BJP’s central figure. Rahul Gandhi has gained significant visibility on ground. And with NTK, Seeman has built a steady, identity-driven base for himself as well.

But perhaps the clearest sign of this shift… is Vijay. Because in Tamil Nadu, cinema and politics have always been closely linked. And Vijay is stepping into that tradition, in a very different political moment.

Azee: Vijay’s entry is significant not just because he is a new player, but because of what he represents. His party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, is contesting independently, positioning itself as a full alternative to both the DMK and the AIADMK.

In Tamil Nadu’s alliance-driven politics, that’s quite unusual.

And right now, Vijay is bringing not just popularity to the table, but a carefully built persona. As TNM has reported, his political image mirrors his cinematic one — he is supposed to be the “anna”, the protector.

Pooja: For years, his films have reinforced this. And now, that story is moving into politics.

But politics is not cinema, and popularity doesn’t automatically translate into votes. On the ground, organisation, cadre, and ground presence all matter.

And that’s where questions remain. TVK is still new. Its structure is still evolving, and its second-rung leadership is still unclear. Its ideological positioning is also only still taking shape.

Some analysts estimate it could be enough to influence outcomes, but not win power.

So Vijay may not win. But he can still shape the election, by shifting votes and splitting margins.

Factor 5: Multi-front fight

Pooja: This brings us to a bigger shift. Tamil Nadu may still look like a two-front contest. But on the ground, it’s becoming far more crowded.

The BJP is trying to expand. Vijay’s TVK is contesting independently. Seeman's NTK continues to hold a steady vote share.

Now, none of them may form the government, but they matter. Because in a first-past-the-post system, even small vote shifts can change results.

Azee: Both Vijay and Seeman are contesting without alliances, which means their votes are being drawn from across parties.

Vijay could cut across urban voters, younger voters, and sections of both DMK and AIADMK.

Seeman has a more defined base, built on Tamil nationalism and anti-establishment appeal.

So what you’re seeing is vote fragmentation, and in close contests, that can decide who loses, even if it doesn’t decide who wins.

Factor 6 Competitive welfarism. 

Pooja: A central factor in Tamil Nadu’s politics has always been welfare. In fact, it’s been part of the state’s political DNA for decades — from subsidised rice and midday meals to education support and social security.

Even today, much of the electoral fight is about who can offer more, and who can deliver it better. Almost every party is now promising some version of it.

The DMK is campaigning on its existing schemes such as free bus travel, cash support, subsidies. The AIADMK has its “Amma” legacy, and promises expansion. Vijay’s TVK is promising cash transfers, LPG cylinders, and more. 

Azee: Even the BJP, which often criticises “freebie culture” nationally, is offering targeted welfare schemes here.

So voters are not choosing between welfare and no welfare. They’re choosing between competing welfare promises.

And here, welfare is not seen as a freebie. It’s about access to basic resources such as food, transport, education, and dignity.

Pooja: Of course, there are concerns about how sustainable this is, about how much the state can afford. But on the ground, these schemes are everyday life.

If you want to understand this better, watch Azeefa Fathima’s ground report. We’ve linked it below.

This election isn’t as straightforward as it once was — the old two-front contest is still there, but it’s under pressure from new entrants and shifting alliances.

Voters are weighing continuity against dissatisfaction, while also navigating questions of identity, welfare, and the BJP’s growing presence.

What emerges on April 23 will depend on how these different strands come together — or don’t.

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Produced by Megha Mukundan, Script by Lakshmi Priya, Camera by Nithiesh Kumar M, Megha Mukundan, Edit by Nikhil Sekhar ET