Data: How Cong’s incumbency edge, BJP’s vote splitting cinched Telangana municipal polls

In February 2026, Telangana held elections to 116 municipalities and 7 municipal corporations, 123 localities in all, spread across the length and breadth of the state. When the results came in, four main parties and a scattered field of independent candidates had between them accounted for almost everything: the Indian National Congress (INC), the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), alongside unaffiliated independents, together captured 94% of all votes polled and 97% of all 2,995 wards. Across ~38 lakh votes cast, Telangana's municipal politics had narrowed down to four organised parties alongside a long tail of local candidates contesting on their own.

But within that contest, the real story was far more granular. A ward-level analysis of all 123 localities shows that the final results were shaped not just by how many votes each party got, but by two things that the headline numbers obscure: who else was in the race in each locality, and the structural advantage that came with being the ruling party.

The Conversion Gap: How Congress maximised seats while BRS faltered

Across all 123 localities, Congress polled 39.26% of the total votes. But it won 51.32% of all wards. That gap, 12.06 percentage points between vote share and ward share, is what political analysts call an efficiency gap. It means Congress votes were concentrated in exactly the right places, while the opposition's votes were spread in ways that did not translate into wins.

Every other party ended up on the wrong side of this equation. BRS polled 28.40% of votes but won only 26.08% of wards. BJP polled 15.45% but won only 11.22% of wards. Independent candidates collectively and AIMIM also underperformed their vote share in terms of wards, though in the case of independents, this aggregate masks the reality that they ran as individuals with no shared ideology or coordinated strategy, making their combined numbers a statistical convenience rather than a political statement.

But the numbers behind these averages are where things get interesting.

How Congress’ control of state machinery influenced local outcomes

A significant part of Congress's efficiency advantage is rooted in the fact that it enters these elections as the ruling state government. Municipal elections in general are fought at the most local level, ward-level voters are deciding who controls their roads, their drainage, their water supply, and their access to government schemes. The party that holds the state government controls the flow of funds, administrative approvals, and scheme disbursements to these localities.

Congress has governed Telangana since December 2023, giving it over two years to establish which localities get responsive administration and which development projects get sanctioned before polling day. BRS understood this playbook well; during its decade in power, it used the same machinery to dominate municipal and local body elections. The difference now is that the machinery has changed hands.

BRS’ conversion crisis: Decent vote share, diminishing returns

BRS is not losing these elections because it has run out of supporters. A ward councillor wins not just on popularity, but on what he can promise and deliver – road repairs, ration card processing, housing scheme sanctions – which require access to state government machinery. BRS’ vote share has held up, but the ward count has not.

In Bhupalapally municipality, the vote gap between Congress and BRS was just two percentage points, 42.5% and 40.5% respectively. But the gap in ward count was much wider – 16 wards for Congress (53%) to 10 wards (33%) for BRS in the 30-wards municipality. There was a 20 percentage point gap in outcomes or wards won, on just a two percentage point gap in votes. 

In Ramayampet municipality, the gap in vote count was only five percentage points, but the gap in wards won was over 40 percentage points. Congress won 8 of 12 wards, BRS won only 3. 

These results cannot be explained by one party being far more popular than the other. They are explained by how votes were distributed across wards and who had the administration and organisational depth to convert narrow pluralities into wins.

The most extreme case of this pattern is Kesamudram, where BRS polled 49% of votes – four percentage points more than Congress’ vote count. But BRS still drew level with Congress at 8 wards each in this 16 ward municipality. 

The loss in the 2023 Assembly elections fundamentally changed the BRS situation by taking away the administrative power and scheme delivery tools that usually keep a local base intact. While people are still casting votes for the BRS, the party is losing its ability to convert that support into actual representation.

Bipolar vs triangular contests: How a third force reshapes the field 

One of the most revealing findings comes from splitting the 123 localities into two categories: bipolar and triangular. 

A locality was classified as bipolar if no third contestant crossed 15% of the vote, meaning the fight was effectively between two main parties. If any contestant, whether BJP, AIMIM, a strong independent candidate, or even Congress or BRS themselves in localities where they finished third, crossed that 15% threshold, the contest was triangular, meaning a meaningful third force was present. 

Of the 123 localities, 77 were bipolar and 46 were triangular.

The third forces in the triangular category were varied. In 29 cases BJP was the third force. In 10 cases BRS itself was third, with BJP and Congress fighting it out at the top, as seen in the Karimnagar Municipal Corporation (BJP 30.43%, Congress 23.82%, BRS 22.62%). 

In four cases, locally strong individual candidates drove the fragmentation as the third forces. 

In the extraordinary case of Bhainsa, AIMIM and unaffiliated local candidates together crossed 60% of the vote, leaving all mainstream parties as bit players. 

Meanwhile, Congress was the third force in two localities, Amangal and Amarchinta municipalities.

In straight two-party fights, Congress's efficiency gap was (+13.37%) and BRS's was (-3.36%). In three-way contests, Congress's gap was (+9.14%) and BRS's was (-1.91%). 

This means Congress’ incumbency advantage was most decisive when the question on the ballot was simple: ruling party or challenger. When a third force entered, the picture fractured, though Congress remained ahead in both types of contests.

In triangular fights, one number stands out. BJP's efficiency gap in three-way contests is (-1.84%). BRS's is (-1.91%). The difference between them is just 0.07 percentage points. 

In the overall results, BJP and BRS look like very different parties: BRS polled 28.40% vote share statewide, while BJP polled 15.45% of votes. BRS governed Telangana for a decade while BJP never held power in the state. 

Yet in the triangular fights specifically, both parties converted votes into wards at virtually the same rate. 

BRS's organisational depth over BJP, which is visible and significant in bipolar fights, disappears entirely when a third party is in the race. This points to a vote share transfer from BRS to BJP that is already underway. 

In the 46 triangular localities, wherever BJP crossed 15% of the vote, a section of what was once BRS's support base appears to be moving to BJP. BRS is no longer the consolidating force in these localities. It is competing for the same fragmented non-Congress vote as BJP and converting that vote into wards at exactly the same inefficient rate. 

The most precise way to understand what bipolar fights mean for BRS is in those 77 localities, where Congress's average vote share was 43.78% and BRS's was 32.20%, a gap of 11.58 percentage points. But the ward share gap between the two parties was 57.15% to 28.84%, a difference of 28.31 percentage points. 

An 11.58 point vote advantage translated into a 28.31 point ward advantage for Congress. The ward gap was ~2.4 times larger than the vote gap. That multiplier is the clearest single measure of how much the structure of a direct two-party contest amplifies a ruling party's organisational and administrative edge over its main challenger, the BRS in this case. 

The spoiler effect: BJP’s high vote count vs low ward representation

BJP polled ~5.9 lakh votes across the 123 localities. Given its vote share, it should proportionally have won around 15% of wards, but it won only 11.22% of wards. That gap (-4.2 percentage points), which roughly translates to 1.6 lakh votes that produced no proportional return in wards, represents the most inefficient vote distribution of any party in this election.

More significantly, BJP acted as a spoiler in 46 of the 123 localities. A spoiler, as used here, is any party finishing third or lower, whose vote share equals or exceeds the gap between the winner and runner-up. A party that cannot win by itself, but is taking enough votes to decide who does.

In 34 of those 46 cases where BJP played spoiler, the party that paid the price was BRS. 

In Huzurabad municipality, Congress won with 39.27% of votes and BRS came second with 29.84%. BJP's 19.16% was the deciding factor. 

In Parkal, Congress secured 40.21% and BRS secured 39.67%, a gap of less than half a percentage point. Congress won 13 of 22 wards and BRS won just six. BJP, which had no realistic chance of winning the municipality, polled 16.46% – much larger than 0.54% margin between the top two. Again, BJP was the spoiler and BRS paid the price.

BJP topped the vote share in just five (Adilabad, Raikal, Narayanpet, Khanapur, and Karimnagar) of 123 localities. All five were triangular fights, and four of them were in the northern part of Telangana which has been a BRS stronghold. 

In not one bipolar contest did BJP finish first in votes. The party's relevance in Telangana at the local level is entirely dependent on fragmented fields. When the field consolidates, BJP disappears from the contest entirely.

Fragmented mandates: Where vote splitting decided the winner

Zooming out from BJP, the spoiler picture is even larger. In 71 of 123 localities, at least one party's vote share exceeded the winning margin between the top two finishers. This means more than half the contests, the result could have gone differently had the fragmentation not occurred.

The data shows a clear pattern – the BJP frequently acted as a spoiler for the BRS, costing them victories in 18 bipolar and 16 triangular contests. 

While the BJP also split the Congress vote in 10 municipalities, specifically across six triangular and four bipolar contests, this impact was far less severe than what was seen with the BRS. 

In total, the BJP functioned as a spoiler against the BRS in 34 different localities, making the Congress the primary beneficiary of this divided opposition. 

By splitting the non-Congress vote, the opposition allowed the ruling party to win close to two-thirds of these fragmented localities. Local independent candidates also played a role, tipping the balance as spoilers in 12 different races across the state.

What this tells us about Telangana’s politics going forward

The results paint a sobering picture for the BRS. While the party is not short of supporters, its votes are currently distributed in a way that produces second place finishes rather than victories. 

For the BJP, the data reveals a party that currently matters more as a vote splitter than as a winner. Its presence in former BRS strongholds is significant, but the benefits are flowing almost entirely to the Congress rather than the BJP itself. 

However, this advantage for the Congress is currently confined to the dynamics of these municipal elections. The impact of this vote splitting could vary significantly when the state moves toward Assembly elections, where different political factors and candidate dynamics come into play.

This 12-point efficiency advantage for the Congress is a direct result of being the ruling party in a state where municipal wins are decided by local delivery. 

By choosing the Congress for schemes, development, and funds, voters have also signalled a strong belief in the current government’s ability to deliver. 

While the Congress currently appears to hold an efficient grip on the state’s political landscape, these calculations could shift in the Assembly elections as the factor of anti-incumbency begins to weigh on the government. Furthermore, the triangular and bipolar dynamics observed at the local level also could change during the Assembly elections as the scale of the contest and voter priorities evolve.

Pradeep Kumar Dontha is a political consultant based out of Hyderabad.