Uncertainty over Karnataka’s CM shift | Powertrip #128

Welcome to this week’s Powertrip, a political newsletter exclusively curated for TNM and NL subscribers by Dhanya Rajendran, Shabbir Ahmed, and Pooja Prasanna.In this edition, we spoke to seven Congress leaders about the Chief Ministerial handover crisis in Karnataka. Will it happen and when will it happen? What are the complications involved? In the next story, we learnt that the NDA, galvanised by its spectacular victory in Bihar, flew in a top RSS leader to talk to EPS about the possibility of a united AIADMK by including VK Sasikala, O Panneerselvam, and TTV Dhinakaran in the party. Read the full newsletter for all the details. For those who can’t access the full newsletter, get a subscription and read every Tuesday. .Inside TrackExclusive stories, for your eyes only.A power swap without a timelineSwitch on any Kannada news channel and there is breathless, wall-to-wall coverage of whether DK Shivakumar will be made Chief Minister. There is already speculation about who belongs to which faction, and who will leave or stay if the power swap does not happen.We thought this week’s Powertrip should offer some clarity on what’s unfolding. We spoke to seven Congress leaders.First, here’s the short version.Will there be a power swap? Everyone says yes.When will that happen? No one is sure. Everyone says Rahul Gandhi will decide.Who is growing impatient? DKS for sure.But is he waiting to be announced CM immediately? Not really (we’ll explain later).What is Mallikarjun Kharge’s stand? It’s complicated.A source close to Rahul Gandhi said that between now and April 2026, a power swap will happen. Many say that DKS was given an assurance before the election and it will be fulfilled.However, if Siddaramaiah insists he will not hand over to DKS, things could get complicated. There are many players willing to put their hat into the ring.What does DKS want? He needs an assurance from the high command that he will be made Chief Minister within a few months. In fact, most Congress leaders say the breathless coverage is courtesy of DKS himself. Rahul Gandhi, however, has not given him an appointment yet.If DKS does not get an assurance, then what happens? Not much, since the Congress’s numbers are too comfortable. Leaders from the Mysuru belt – who cannot afford to anger the Vokkaliga vote – will side with DKS, but it is doubtful he can mobilise a large number of MLAs. At least for now, it doesn’t seem so as DKS has managed to take only a handful of MLAs to Delhi to pitch for him. Moreover, let’s not forget that DKS is a staunch Congressman. He would rather wait and convince Rahul Gandhi than antagonise him.Anyway, no one except a few staunch Siddaramaiah supporters believe that the power swap won’t happen. Everyone else is quite clear that DKS will get his chance, but the timelines remain unclear.Now, let’s introduce the next complication.Mallikarjun Kharge has made it amply clear that he wouldn’t mind becoming the next CM saying that the Congress has missed the chance to make a Dalit the CM. Some say he will make a pitch, but if that doesn’t work out he will throw his weight behind DKS and may want his son and IT Minister Priyank Kharge to be made DKS’s Deputy CM..Bihar results: Top RSS leaders meet EPSThe massive victory in the Bihar election has given hope to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Tamil Nadu.The biggest takeaway for the Sangh Parivar and the BJP from the Bihar elections is alliance consolidation. This was possible because the return of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), led by Chirag Paswan, contributed nearly 5.5% votes to the NDA.Taking a cue from the Bihar election results, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has set its eyes on implementing the same formula in Tamil Nadu. Four days after the Bihar election results, on November 18, top RSS leader and one of the five Sah-Sarkaryavahs, Arun Kumar, landed in Chennai from Mumbai to meet AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami.Arun Kumar, along with RSS Dakshin Kshetra Pracharak Senthil Ji, met EPS in Chennai. According to AIADMK insiders, the top RSS leader explained to EPS the factors that helped the NDA secure such a huge mandate in Bihar and stressed the need for alliance consolidation.The RSS and BJP feel the entry of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam into the fray would narrow the competition. Coupled with SIR and anti-incumbency, they believe that if vote consolidation between the allies is done in the right manner, there is a chance for a stiff competition against the DMK.The RSS leader asked EPS to consider the possibility of a united AIADMK by including VK Sasikala, O Panneerselvam, and TTV Dhinakaran in the party. AIADMK sources told TNM that EPS was not happy with the proposal and flatly rejected it.However, EPS told the RSS leader that he has no objection to Sasikala, OPS, and Dhinakaran joining the NDA alliance. According to sources, one of the reasons a top RSS leader rushed to Chennai to intervene in this matter is because leaders like OPS, Dhinakaran, and KA Sengottaiyan are upset with the BJP for not doing enough to get them back into the AIADMK. As a result, Sasikala, OPS, Sengottaiyan, and Dhinakaran have decided to join hands and have rallied against EPS.The RSS and the BJP fear that the anti-EPS coalition could prove costly for the NDA in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly election. 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Uncertainty over Karnataka’s CM shift | Powertrip #128

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