Why Jose K Mani would want to jump ship | Powertrip #134

Welcome to this week’s Powertrip, a political newsletter exclusively curated for TNM and NL subscribers. This week’s edition is by Shabbir Ahmed, Pooja Prasanna, Prateek Goyal and Nidheesh MK.In our first story in this edition, we report on the rumours about the Kerala Congress (Mani) shifting allegiance to the opposition UDF ahead of the Assembly polls.Why is Vijay’s Jana Nayagan release stalled? It hinges on the fact that he is no longer just a film star but also the president of a political party. We bring you the inside story.Designboxed is the next political strategy firm after I-PAC to face the heat after Pune City Police visited its office and questioned employees.Read the full newsletter for all the details. For those who can’t access the full newsletter, get a subscription and read every Tuesday..Inside TrackExclusive stories, for your eyes only.Will Jose K Mani leave LDF?Speculation around a possible return of the Kerala Congress (Mani) to the opposition UDF has intensified ahead of the party’s steering committee meeting on January 16. The party is widely expected to take a call in the meeting on whether it should continue with the ruling LDF.With less than a hundred days to the Assembly election, a Mani faction exit would be a political embarrassment for the LDF and could weaken its claim of electoral momentum. Yet, party insiders insist much remains unresolved.Jose K Mani is said to be hearing out suggestions, including feelers from the Congress leadership – though reports of a direct call from Sonia Gandhi remain unconfirmed – and quiet persuasion from senior figures in the Church. Another indication of the current internal imbalance is that a proposed central Kerala campaign march, initially expected to be led by Jose K Mani himself, is now being fronted by N Jayaraj, a shift that party insiders read as both tactical and telling.At the same time, resistance from within the Kerala Congress (Mani) has become more visible. Its ministers Roshy Augustine and Pramod Narayan have emerged as the most vocal advocates of the status quo, citing the space and leverage that the Mani group enjoys within the LDF. Both publicly dismissed defection talk and underlined their position by sharing images with Pinarayi Vijayan on Facebook.The Mani group contested 12 seats with the LDF in 2021 and won five. The Joseph faction in the UDF contested 10 and won two. A return would mean renegotiating seats already claimed by leaders such as Mani C Kappan (UDF-MLA in Pala, the most prestigious seat for the Mani faction), with little appetite for sacrifice.So why is the party thinking of moving? Some insiders highlighted a strategic fear, shared by Church leaders, that if the LDF is swept by an anti-incumbency wave, a weakened Mani group could bleed cadres either to the Joseph faction or even towards the BJP.It is notable that the fuel to the speculation was added by an initial report appearing in Malayala Manorama, a paper with deep links to Christian social networks. Jose K Mani’s absence from the high-profile LDF protest meeting on January 12 against the Union government, officially attributed to personal reasons, has only deepened the speculation.Whether this is bargaining or deliberate ambiguity, the party’s long history of splits suggests that the suspense itself may already be doing political work. Some even credit Jose K Mani for fuelling the speculation to see what is in the store for the party. Anyway, thanks to the defection rumours, the Kerala Congress finds itself in a familiar position, with the next move seen carrying the potential to reshape central Kerala politics once again..Karnataka to release draft of Rohith Vemula Bill for public feedbackA draft of the Karnataka government’s bill to address caste-based discrimination in higher education, informally called the Rohith Vemula Bill, will be released for public consultation on January 17. After seeking inputs from students, faculty, and other stakeholders, the government plans to table the legislation in the budget session of the Assembly, likely in March. Officials say the proposed law will set out clearer procedures for filing complaints, conducting inquiries, and fixing institutional accountability within universities and colleges.The bill is named after Rohith Vemula, a PhD scholar at the University of Hyderabad who died by suicide in 2016 after alleging discrimination and sparking nationwide protests and debate on caste and campus politics. A copy of the draft will also be shared with Rohith’s mother, Radhika Vemula..Why is the Censor Board adamant on stalling Jana Nayagan?The makers of Vijay’s Jana Nayagan are facing an unexpected roadblock. The film, slated for a January 9 release, has been delayed after the Censor Board referred it to a revising committee. What has raised eyebrows is the Solicitor General Tushar Mehta’s appearance in the Madras High Court. Tamil film industry sources told TNM that there are several films that have encountered a similar situation in the past, but most get resolved through backdoor negotiations. From what we know, a few people in the film industry suggested that Vijay should approach the Union government. The idea was that Vijay himself should directly engage in talks with the BJP and not the producers of the film.But since Vijay was not ready to speak to anyone, the production house decided to approach the court and secured an order in their favour to release Jana Nayagan. However, the Censor Board received clear instructions from the Information and Broadcasting Ministry to fight it out legally. This was the reason why the Censor Board chose to immediately go for an appeal in the Madras High Court challenging the single judge order and has also gone to the extent of filing a caveat in the Supreme Court.Another bit of information we learnt was that during Vijay’s visit to Delhi for a CBI summons, there was speculation that either the Congress or the BJP might make an attempt to meet him.While the Taj Mahal Hotel located at Mansingh Road in Lutyens’ Delhi, where Vijay was staying, saw a large media entourage, even central and state Intelligence were keeping tabs on developments. However, according to sources, no political meetings happened. .After I-PAC raids, Pune police question staff at Ajit Pawar’s campaign firmAfter the Enforcement Directorate’s raids on I-PAC’s Kolkata offices, it appears that the heat is now spreading to another political strategy firm, Designboxed. Two officers from the Pune City Police visited Designboxed’s office on January 13, spent about half an hour there and questioned employees.Designboxed has been handling NCP leader Ajit Pawar’s campaign since last year’s Maharashtra Assembly elections.The development is especially striking because the Ajit Pawar-led NCP and the Sharad Pawar faction of the party have now come together to contest the Pune Municipal Corporation elections as allies. The agency also handled Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar.The tie-up has revived speculation about a possible reunion of the party, which split in July 2023 when Ajit Pawar broke away and aligned with the BJP and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena.With the PMC elections approaching, the campaign atmosphere has turned intense. Ajit Pawar himself has sharpened his pitch, even publicly criticising what he called the communal rhetoric of some BJP leaders..Zero HourA political story of public importance.India’s new Seeds Bill vows modern reforms but critics say it favours corporations over farmers .The bill is expected to be introduced in Parliament for cabinet approval in early 2026..PowermovesTop 5 political storiesDecoding Zoho's Sridhar Vembu: The software czar who became the Sangh's Swadeshi mascot Why Mamata walked out with a green file: Inside the real stakes of the I-PAC raidSanitation workers end stir after TN Minister assures jobs under GCCWhy Kerala conducts local government polls on time while many others can’tAfter 115-day protest, K’taka govt says no PPP model for Vijayapura medical college