Vijay’s Karur visit challenges and DMK’s mixed numbers | Powertrip #123

Welcome to this week’s Powertrip, a political newsletter exclusively curated for TNM and NL subscribers by Dhanya Rajendran, Shabbir Ahmed, Pooja Prasanna, and Haritha John. In this edition, we tell you how Vijay has been allowed to visit Karur to meet 41 families of stampede victims, but on one condition. Powertrip has also learnt that TVK has run into difficulties trying to find such a venue. It’s also time for political surveys in the state and one such survey across constituencies in southern Tamil Nadu showed mixed numbers for the ruling DMK while the figures for TVK seem promising, ahead of the 2026 Assembly election. What are the numbers? All details below. Meanwhile, in Kerala, sources told us that a faction within the Kerala Congress (M) is looking to return to the UDF..Inside TrackExclusive stories, for your eyes only.Vijay’s Karur visitThe Supreme Court’s interim order transferring the Karur stampede case to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) has come as a massive relief for TVK and Vijay.The entire TVK leadership that went missing in action after the Karur incident is now back to its base and this time their focus is on Vijay’s visit to Karur to meet the kin of the stampede victims.TVK insiders say that the police are willing to give permission for the visit if TVK can bring all 41 families to a single location and organise the event. While most of the victims were from Karur, some were from Tiruppur and Erode districts. Police say it would be tough to provide security in three districts on the same day.TVK leaders who have been trying to find a wedding hall in Karur for the event have faced multiple challenges. Hall owners are reluctant to provide space. A functionary told TNM that each time they finalised a venue in the morning, the wedding hall owner would withdraw by evening without giving any reason.Despite challenges, two venues have been zeroed in: KRV Mahal and SKP Mahal in Karur. TVK leader Arunraj, along with the district police officials, will be finalising the venue for Vijay’s visit before Deepavali..Mixed numbers for the DMKWe have learnt that a political consultancy has been conducting periodic surveys across Assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu for the DMK. In one such survey carried out in August 2025 across 62 seats in southern TN, the findings showed that the DMK holds a clear edge in 30 seats, is on par with the AIADMK in 20 seats, and trails in 10 seats where the AIADMK has the advantage.What makes the survey particularly interesting is the constituency-wise breakdown, which shows that the TVK is performing considerably well. For instance, in Kiliyoor, currently held by the Congress, the DMK has a 40% voter preference, the NDA has 20%, while the TVK stands at 27%. In Ranipet, the INDIA bloc has 35% voter preference and the NDA 19%, but the TVK registers 21%. A similar pattern repeats across constituencies, with the TVK’s support ranging from 19% to as high as 29% in Nagapattinam.The surveys categorise the NDA as comprising the AIADMK and the BJP. The potential turning point for the upcoming TN election could be if the TVK and AIADMK decide to join forces, combining their respective voter bases. However, it is worth noting that these figures may be slightly inflated, as pollsters often amplify emerging trends by around 5% to prompt strategic action from their clients (they call this normalisation).Another survey done post Karur by the DMK says that if TVK aligns with the BJP and AIADMK, it will make things easy for the DMK. However, if TVK contests alone, it can spell some trouble in the short-term and become a big headache long-term.Interestingly, TVK’s own internal surveys – commissioned by Aadhav Arjuna – before the Karur incident reportedly indicate that the party’s overall vote share ranges between 8% and 12%..Congress issues gag on VijayWe told you in last week’s Powertrip that a section of Congress leaders from Tamil Nadu are of the opinion that the party must consider the option of aligning with the TVK.Congress insiders say that the party high command has received multiple proposals from various factions within the party, some claiming that actor-turned-politician Vijay’s party would garner at least 25% of the vote share.As the chorus grows, some prominent faces from the Congress, despite being part of the DMK-led alliance, have been defending Vijay. Leaders like Tirchy Veluchamy started blaming the DMK government for mishandling the Karur issue.The DMK has expressed its displeasure through various channels to the Congress high command, and an internal report was also sent on the matter. Sensing trouble, the Congress high command has issued a gag order to its TN functionaries, directing them not to comment about TVK, Vijay, or the possible alliance..Kerala Congress (M) to ally with UDF again?Sources indicate that a strong faction within the Kerala Congress (M) is considering a return to the UDF, believing that a change of government is likely in the next elections. The UDF has also been actively courting the party. However, several senior KC(M) leaders oppose the move, preferring to remain with the LDF. There have been complaints within the party about not receiving adequate prominence and recognition in the LDF. Those in favour of the shift also believe that Jose K Mani would have a better chance of winning from Pala if he contests under the UDF banner..Zero HourA political story of public importance.For India’s Muslims, the Hindutva applause for Israel’s war on Gaza is especially chilling.It is a declaration of domestic desire, a performance of what many fear could be replicated against Indian Muslims..PowermovesTop 5 political storiesWTF Is: Inside Nikhil Kamath’s networks, narratives and new ambitionsTVK seeks ‘zero-tolerance’ crowd control and media curbs for Vijay’s Karur visit Kerala's rationalist group joins right-wing in defending Israel's actions Tribal lands under threat: How non-tribal settlers are changing Andhra Pradesh’s hillsAcademician Nandini Sundar slams BJP govt for fueling violence, Hindutva in Bastar

Vijay’s Karur visit challenges and DMK’s mixed numbers | Powertrip #123

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