Nilambur isn’t just a byepoll, a preview of 2026? | Powertrip #105

Welcome to this week’s Powertrip, a political newsletter exclusively curated for TNM and NL subscribers by Dhanya Rajendran, Shabbir Ahmed, Pooja Prasanna, and Nidheesh MK. This week, we bring you insider information on the buzz behind the next Director General of Police in Tamil Nadu, given that an election year is coming up. In Kerala, with the controversial PV Anvar contesting from TMC, Nilambur becomes a testing ground for what kind of politics the state may be drifting toward..Inside TrackExclusive stories, for your eyes only.The race for TN’s new DGPThe race for Tamil Nadu’s next Director General of Police (DGP) appears to have ended even before it began. According to sources in the state government, the current DGP, Shankar Jiwal, is likely to get an extension and continue in his post for another six months.Government insiders revealed that the political leadership faced a dilemma in selecting a new DGP. Among the frontrunners were Seema Agarwal (DGP Fire and Rescue Services), Abhay Kumar Singh (Head of Vigilance and Anti Corruption wing), and former Chennai Police Commissioner Sandeep Rai Rathore. However, the government reportedly was not keen on appointing any of these candidates and ultimately chose to retain Jiwal.Within bureaucratic circles, there is talk that apart from Rathore, the other contenders were themselves not very interested in taking up the top post, especially given the challenging nature of leading the force during an election year. Many officers refrained from lobbying for the position, likely due to the uncertain political climate in an election year.Further indicating the government’s lack of intent in appointing a new DGP, the process of selecting candidates and forwarding their files to the Union Public Service Commission (UPSC) was not initiated..Anvar vs Anvar: What the Nilambur contest meansThe Nilambur bye-election in Kerala has emerged as more than just another poll battle, framed less as a clash between traditional fronts and more as a referendum on PV Anvar himself.With shifting loyalties, conflicting narratives, which version of Anvar the voters endorse will offer an early signal of where the public mood is headed—not just ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections, but also before the crucial panchayat polls that will test grassroots sentiment.Anvar, the former LDF-backed independent who resigned his seat in January, is now contesting again with the backing of the Trinamool Congress (TMC). So marginal is the TMC in Kerala that it remains unregistered in the state, forcing Anvar to run as an independent once more. He has also positioned himself as an outsider to the UDF—an alliance he once sought entry into.This is, in effect, Anvar vs Anvar: a campaign to defend his own political relevance against the contradictions of his trajectory—from loyal LDF ally, to spurned UDF hopeful, to a one-man front backed by a party with no base.Across the aisle, the LDF has fielded M Swaraj, a former MLA and prominent CPM youth leader, known for his disciplined party work and sharp ideological messaging. Swaraj’s selection signals the Left’s intent to reclaim lost ground in a place where they have earlier backed independents.The UDF’s pick, Aryadan Shoukath, is a seasoned grassroots politician, an award-winning scriptwriter, and the son of late Congress veteran Aryadan Muhammed, who held the Nilambur seat for over 30 years. Shoukath lost to Anvar in 2016 and now returns under the shadow of both legacy and expectation. His challenge lies not only in reviving the Congress base, but also in navigating criticism from allies like the IUML, who blame the UDF leadership for letting Anvar slip away.The Congress is in a state of confusion after Anvar, who offered them electoral support, announced his candidature for the byepoll.Sources close to Anvar said while both the Congress and the IUML were ready to accommodate him in the UDF by bringing in TMC as an associate partner, the move was stalled by Leader of Opposition and senior Congress leader VD Satheesan. Anvar wanted TMC to be made a constituent of the UDF and not an associate partner. His criticism of Shoukath also did not go well with the Congress, which wanted it to be retracted. The Anvar camp is angry that the decision regarding his entry into the UDF was not made before the announcement of the Nilambur byepoll date. There are also speculations regarding divisions in the UDF camp over Anvar’s treatment after Rahul Mamkootathil, Palakkad MLA and state president of the Youth Congress, held a late night parley with Anvar on May 31. While the Congress said it had not authorised Rahul to hold such a meeting, the Youth Congress leader in his defence said that he arranged it in his personal capacity to ensure that Anvar doesn’t deviate from his anti-Pinarayi cause.Sources close to Rahul said that his decision to go meet Anvar was not to challenge VD Satheesan or any other leader but to keep his connections with him intact. Ever since Anvar took on the Pinarayi government and former ADGP (Law & Order) Ajitkumar, Rahul had pledged his support and led protest marches demanding Pinarayi Vijayan’s resignation. We hear that during the meeting, Rahul told Anvar that he should stop dissing Shoukath in public as this will create problems for his entry into the UDF coalition.As each candidate leans into a different kind of appeal—Anvar on personal visibility, Swaraj on party pedigree, Shoukath on inherited credibility—Nilambur becomes a testing ground for what kind of politics Kerala may be drifting toward. If Anvar succeeds, it could signal a quiet voter shift toward post-ideological, personality-driven campaigns. If he fails, the message may be that despite visible churn, Kerala’s political ground still holds firm to its structured loyalties.Either way, Nilambur will be a stress test for the future shape of Kerala’s politics..Zero HourA political story of public importance.Harsh Mander: When lawless cruelty becomes state policy – India’s casting of Rohingya into the sea.With a legacy of welcoming the persecuted of the world and a Constitution that guarantees the right to life for all, how has India descended to this place?.PowermovesTop 5 political storiesWhat’s changed in Bengaluru’s PGs since a woman’s murder in Koramangala? TNM investigates Caste census matters: It may politically trump the current majoritarian projectRamadoss vs Anbumani: The battle between the father and son in PMKA Kerala police officer leaks woman’s call data to her husband, govt clears himWe told countries diplomacy with Pak not working: MP Lavu Sri Krishna Devarayalu on delegation

Nilambur isn’t just a byepoll, a preview of 2026? | Powertrip #105

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