The AIADMK-TVK pivot after Karur tragedy | Powertrip #122

Welcome to this week’s Powertrip, a political newsletter exclusively curated for TNM and NL subscribers by Dhanya Rajendran, Shabbir Ahmed, and Haritha John. After the Karur tragedy, the political landscape is changing dramatically in Tamil Nadu, with EPS reaching out to TVK to renegotiate an alliance. What were the previous conditions that ended in a deadlock? What are the new terms? Read in this week’s newsletter.We will also tell you why the CPI(M) in Kerala conceived its Hindu appeasement strategy. .Inside TrackExclusive stories, for your eyes only.The AIADMK-TVK pivotThe Karur stampede, which claimed 41 lives, is still under investigation. But beyond the grief and the ongoing probe, the tragedy is also reshaping Tamil Nadu’s political equations. Talks between actor Vijay’s TVK and AIADMK chief Edappadi Palaniswami (EPS), which stalled months ago over Vijay’s audacious demand for 150 seats and a rotating chief ministership, are now back on the table.The situation has shifted dramatically post-Karur, and EPS has reached out to TVK to renegotiate. Sources suggest EPS is now amenable to giving TVK significantly more than 60 seats and offering Vijay the Deputy Chief Ministership, a power-sharing arrangement styled after the Andhra model seen with Naidu and Pawan Kalyan.However, the BJP remains a fly in the ointment. The AIADMK is already in an alliance with the BJP, but Vijay wants absolutely no truck with the BJP. The middle ground is now a subject of intense speculation. Some suggest the BJP, playing pragmatic politics, might sit out the alliance just to ensure the DMK does not win the election. Alternatively, Vijay might climb down from his stance and allow the BJP to be a minor partner.The BJP has done everything it can to grab Vijay’s attention and has been defending TVK to the hilt over Karur. In the last Powertrip, we told you that Vijay did not take Amit Shah’s call. After that, one TVK source claimed that someone has spoken to Vijay on behalf of Amit Shah, but others deny it. With Vijay not responding to the overtures, the BJP has for now conveyed that they are in his corner and he can turn to them at any time. The ‘Joseph’ Vijay barb and all is forgotten. One thing is for sure, an alliance between Vijay and the AIADMK seems more probable than ever now.The Congress too finds itself at a crossroads. Though it has long been allied with the DMK, voices within the party, including AICC in-charge Girish Chodankar, are suggesting a rethink and exploring the possibility of joining hands with the TVK. Congress leaders say internal sentiment surveys show a decline in the DMK’s popularity after the stampede, especially an analysis done in Karur.Yet, for all the talk of alternatives, the Congress high command remains firmly aligned with the DMK. Rahul Gandhi shares a strong rapport with MK Stalin, and party insiders admit there is no compelling reason to break the alliance.From our experience covering both parties, such murmurs within the Congress are more about bargaining for a better deal and not a genuine break-up.CPI(M)’s new social engineering planThe CPI(M) has been in the news lately for its Hindu appeasement strategy – through initiatives like the Ayyappa Sangamam and closer engagement with the Nair Service Society (NSS) and SNDP Yogam. But this was not a plan conceived overnight.About a year ago, the party began conducting ground-level surveys, even visiting local households. These surveys revealed that in several districts of Kerala, among non-CPI(M) or politically neutral households, around five out of 10 had shifted their allegiance towards the BJP or were leaning towards right-wing politics. The main reasons cited were the Union government’s welfare schemes, Narendra Modi’s popularity, and growing anti-incumbency sentiment against the CPI(M)-led LDF government.In response, as part of its social engineering strategy, the CPI(M) decided to adopt measures aimed at appeasing sections of the Hindu community. The party has also conducted studies within the Catholic community, where a visible drift towards the BJP has been observed, and is reportedly formulating plans to reach out to them as well..Zero HourA political story of public importance.Chikankari, zardozi to handmade wares, US tariffs could crush India’s fragile artisanal sector .Cottage industries and women artisans are likely to bear the brunt, say experts and exporters..PowermovesTop 5 political storiesExplained: The controversy over missing gold at Sabarimala templeKarnataka caste survey: BJP’s propaganda, HC order and conspiracies within the govt Karur tragedy: When hero worship and administrative negligence turned deadlyOpinion: The Marwadi Go Back movement and Hindutva politics in Telangana‘Parasite, arrogant’: Priyank Kharge, Nara Lokesh trade barbs over Bengaluru ORR firms

The AIADMK-TVK pivot after Karur tragedy | Powertrip #122

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