Powertrip: BS Vijayendra cracks the whip and what DMK election surveys say

Welcome to Powertrip, a newsletter exclusively curated for TNM Subscribers by Dhanya Rajendran, Shabbir Ahmed and Pooja Prasanna. In this issue, we talk about the tough choices for Pawan Kalyan, the two election surveys of the DMK and what new Karnataka BJP boss Vijayendra wants..Inside TrackExclusive stories, for your eyes only..BS Vijayendra cracks the whipNovember 2023 was an important month for BS Yediyurappa and his son Vijayendra. After years of being sidelined at whim by the Modi-Shah duo, Yediyurappa was firmly back after Vijayendra was made the president of Karnataka BJP. We hear that following a long round of meetings and pleasantries, Vijayendra is down to business and one of the main things on his agenda is planning for Lok Sabha 2024.In 2019, the BJP won 25 out of the 28 seats in the state and it seems Vijayendra is not keen on repeating 8-10 of the MPs. People like Sadananda Gowda have already bowed out, as the party made it clear that they will be excluded like Jagadish Shettar. On Vijayendra’s list are sitting MPs from Bagalkot, Bijapur, and Davangere, among others. But this won’t be a walk in the park for Vijayendra as slicing the list will need approval from Yediyurappa’s nemesis in the party – national general secretary BL Santhosh. Election lists in Karnataka in the last few years have been about who prevails – BSY or Santhosh. We have one more story on how Vijayendra is pushing back against BL Santhosh; it will soon be up on our website.Meanwhile, the Congress too is getting ready to allot seats to new faces. We know that DK Shivakumar has already asked a couple of new faces to get ready for campaigning. Pawan Kalyan and tough choicesJana Sena leader Pawan Kalyan stepped out of the Rajahmundry jail in September 2023 after paying a visit to jailed TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu and made a dramatic announcement about an alliance with the TDP. Three months down the line, one would assume that the parties have figured out their formula… well, they haven’t. Talks are stuck. Seat sharing and power sharing discussions have not moved forward, some sources say as Pawan has asked for the Deputy CM post for Jana Sena if they win seats.While the TDP is keeping a strategic silence, there is another dimension to the problem – Amit Shahji. Shah hasn’t quite forgiven the TDP for walking out from the NDA and will not accommodate them back easily. Pawan’s first choice would be to stay with the BJP and then the TDP. But if the BJP refuses a tie-up with the TDP, what will Pawan do? PEN does two surveys for DMKIn July 2023, we told you about MK Stalin’s son-in-law Sabareesan officially launching the Populus Empowerment Network, or PEN, a socio-political research organisation. Other than media strategy, data and research, etc, PEN is also doing political analysis and surveys, much like IPAC and other agencies. Recently, they have done two surveys for the Lok Sabha polls and what we have been told is that a survey across 39 Lok Sabha seats done by 400 agents show that while things are favourable for the DMK, it isn’t rosy for many old faces. The suggestion is to replace these people with new faces. PEN anyway has a good example to cite – the BRS loss in Telangana. Despite feedback that his MLAs are loathed in many constituencies, KCR refused to change a majority of them.One survey has pointed out that things may not be favourable for the Congress and therefore suggests giving them less seats this time. In 2019, the party had contested from 10 seats. It seems it may not do well in places like Karur and Krishnagiri, according to the survey. But we are also hearing that CM Stalin does not want DMK to simply give away its weak seats to allies, making them dummy candidates. He wants a new dynamic where the DMK contests even from weak seats and ensures that the alliance wins maximum seats. Winning 39 out of 39 would make Stalin a huge force within the INDIA bloc. Udayanidhi Stalin as Deputy CM?Nope, don’t jump at the heading and think it is happening soon. What we know is that the DMK is definitely discussing this and it will happen, just that the timeline isn’t clear. Some say that there are people pushing for an immediate elevation, but that’s unlikely. Most agree that the announcement will come post the Lok Sabha polls. 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