How Opposition came together against Constitution Amendment Bill | Powertrip #146

Welcome to this week’s Powertrip, a political newsletter exclusively curated for TNM and NL subscribers. This week’s edition is by Dhanya Rajendran, Shabbir Ahmed, and Pooja Prasanna.In our first story today, we learnt how the TMC became the “man of the match” in defeating the recent Constitution Amendment Bill in Parliament.Why was Rahul Gandhi a no-show in Tamil Nadu till very late this election season? Sources point to the Congress’s strained seat-sharing talks with the DMK.More on Tamil Nadu. Amit Shah is reportedly displeased with the BJP’s electoral prospects in the state, with intelligence inputs suggesting that the NDA alliance led by the AIADMK is lagging behind..Inside TrackExclusive stories, for your eyes onlyWho brought Samajwadi Party to the table for Constitution Amendment Bill?Defeating the Constitution Amendment Bill in Parliament was a significant moment for the Opposition. It allowed them to project the BJP, and especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, as politically vulnerable, given that both had personally backed the legislation.But the larger question is how this became possible in the first place. Why did the BJP believe the amendment would pass, despite requiring a two-thirds majority in Parliament?According to sources, the BJP’s calculation rested on two assumptions. First, that many Trinamool Congress MPs would stay away amid the intensity of election campaigning. Second, that the Samajwadi Party would not strongly oppose the bill, as the proposed delimitation exercise was not expected to significantly reduce Uttar Pradesh’s representation.While the DMK played a significant role in convincing the SP, sources say the turning point also came from the Trinamool Congress. The party convinced Akhilesh Yadav that this was not just about one bill, but an opportunity to politically corner the BJP and lay the groundwork for a more cohesive Opposition ahead of the Uttar Pradesh elections.One source described the TMC as the “man of the match” in this episode.There is also a view that this victory could shape Opposition strategy going forward. Both Akhilesh Yadav and Mamata Banerjee are likely to push for a formula in which the strongest party in each state takes the lead on key alliance decisions, both in state elections and Lok Sabha polls.Notably, this is not a new idea. Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal had proposed a similar framework as early as December 2023, though the Congress had not been on board at the time.The BJP was, however, right on one count. It was indeed difficult for the Trinamool Congress to ensure that all its MPs reached Parliament. A source said some MPs had to be literally shoved onto flights, as they were in the thick of election campaigning.Rahul Gandhi’s Tamil Nadu absence decodedFor a leader who’s typically a visible and popular campaigner for the Indian National Congress in Tamil Nadu, Rahul Gandhi’s near no-show this election season has raised eyebrows—until his late entry in the final days.Sources suggest the answer lies in the tense seat-sharing talks between the Congress and the DMK. The negotiations were tough, and by some accounts, marked by sharp exchanges from sections of the DMK leadership. The Congress, unwilling to walk out of the alliance, appears to have signalled its displeasure differently—by keeping Rahul Gandhi away from the campaign trail.But politics rarely stands still. The constitutional amendment bills tabled in Parliament seem to have reset equations. MK Stalin is believed to have reached out to Rahul, urging him to take a leading role in rallying the Opposition against the BJP government led by Narendra Modi, with the DMK’s full backing.With that thaw, Rahul Gandhi’s return to Tamil Nadu—albeit in the closing stretch—was set in motion.Amit Shah unhappy with AIADMK’s performance Union Home Minister Amit Shah is reportedly unhappy with the BJP’s electoral prospects in Tamil Nadu, with intelligence inputs suggesting that the NDA alliance led by Edappadi K Palaniswami’s AIADMK is underperforming.According to sources, internal assessments indicate that the DMK holds an edge in the upcoming election, while actor Vijay’s TVK has emerged as a major disruptor, with an estimated vote share of that could go above 20%, with some estimates saying 25%.BJP insiders told TNM that local leaders have been projecting an overly optimistic picture to the party high command, claiming that the AIADMK-BJP combine is performing well on the ground.Adding to the concerns, on Sunday, April 19, Amit Shah held a roadshow in Chennai’s Mylapore constituency, which was intended to be a major show of strength. Local leaders were instructed to mobilise large numbers of party workers for the event.Senior editors and top journalists from several prominent national television channels were flown down to Chennai, with the expectation that the Union Home Minister would interact with them during the rally.However, the situation reportedly shifted once the roadshow began. Shah is said to have noticed that a significant portion of the crowd comprised people mobilised from local areas rather than committed party workers, with a visible lack of enthusiasm.Unhappy with the turnout and the response on the ground, Shah is learnt to have cut short his campaign appearance and cancelled his scheduled media interactions.Zero HourA political story of public importanceHow Indian cities are becoming deadly heat traps as summer temperatures soar.Poor migrants to the cities largely live in informal, unplanned settlements that are most vulnerable to heatwaves..PowermovesTop 5 political storiesThe Lottery King’s blueprint: On the campaign trail with Santiago Martin’s familyBJP calls Soros an enemy; Hardeep Puri’s daughter managed millions for himTCS Nashik case: The complaints, the crowd and the FIRsSCs, STs three times more backward than general castes: Telangana survey findingsIn Bengaluru’s water-stressed areas sit most of its data centres