A call from Kerala that spurred Karnataka CMO into action | Powertrip #132

Welcome to this week’s Powertrip, a political newsletter exclusively curated for TNM and NL subscribers. This week’s edition is by Shabbir Ahmed, Pooja Prasanna, and Nidheesh MK.In this edition, we tell you how the Bengaluru demolition issue escalated after a Kerala NGO alerted Priyanka Gandhi’s office.In Kerala, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s expected January visit is being framed as a launchpad for the upcoming Assembly polls that will comprise more than routine welfare promises.We learnt the reasons behind Congress’ sudden tough talk on power sharing in Tamil Nadu..Inside TrackExclusive stories, for your eyes only A call from Kerala that spurred Karnataka CMO into actionThe demolition of houses at Kogilu’s Waseem Layout and Fakir Colony in north Bengaluru on December 20, carried out by Bengaluru Solid Waste Management Limited, has triggered a political storm for the Congress government in Karnataka, drawing in the party’s central leadership and raising uncomfortable questions.The operation, officially described as a clearing drive, involved the removal of residential structures that civic authorities said were unauthorised. But the images of bulldozers tearing through homes and families being evicted, many of them daily-wage workers and migrants who said they had lived there for years, quickly sparked public outrage and gave the opposition an opening to attack the government.As reported earlier, the controversy soon acquired a political dimension beyond Karnataka. With the Kerala Assembly elections scheduled next year, Congress leaders grew concerned that the optics of a Congress government using bulldozers against residents could be exploited by political rivals.The matter escalated after Congress general secretary KC Venugopal, considered close to the Gandhi family, intervened, triggering fresh allegations of high command interference in a state administrative issue.Sources say the demolitions were carried out at the behest of Deputy Chief Minister and Bengaluru Development Minister DK Shivakumar, and that the Chief Minister’s Office was not kept in the loop until after the issue had turned into a public controversy. By then, Venugopal had reportedly contacted the CMO conveying concerns raised by the offices of Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah was advised to step in and contain the political fallout by announcing rehabilitation and relief measures for the displaced residents and by publicly assuring that no injustice would be done.Venugopal is said to have told Siddaramaiah that a grassroots organisation in Kerala aligned with the Congress had contacted Priyanka Gandhi’s office expressing alarm, warning that visuals of demolitions under a Congress government could hurt the party’s prospects in Kerala where it is attempting to regain political ground.The CPI(M) also sent representatives to Bengaluru to engage with the affected residents, keen to ensure that the issue was not used to project the Congress as anti-poor or authoritarian in Kerala’s political discourse.In the aftermath, DK Shivakumar has reportedly been instructed not to interfere further in the matter, even though it formally falls within his ministerial remit. BJP’s 2026 Kerala push: Reading the numbers, managing the optics The BJP is preparing to press the accelerator early on the next Assembly polls in Kerala, to be held sometime in April-May, 2026. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s expected January visit is being framed as a launchpad towards this. Party sources say the visit could see the announcement of the BJP’s first list of candidates, alongside headline-grabbing commitments pitched as long-term national investments for Kerala, including a marquee healthcare or medical infrastructure initiative rather than routine welfare promises.On paper, the party’s Kerala footprint remains thin. In the last local body elections, the BJP won just 30 of 941 grama panchayats, 2 of 86 municipalities, and failed to secure a single district or block panchayat. Yet perception often matters more than aggregation, and their win in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation continues to punch far above its numerical weight.Vote share trends tell a more complex story. From about 11.5% in the 2021 Assembly elections with no MLAs, the BJP climbed to roughly 20% in the 2024 parliamentary elections with one MP seat. Whereas in the local body polls, its vote share reduced from about 17% in 2020 to less than 15% in 2025. The BJP could brag about winning two municipalities and one corporation, a big victory in a tough tri-party contest, but they also struggled to retain previous wins elsewhere despite contesting in significantly more wards.The contrast is politically instructive: the Muslim League has translated an 8.5% vote share into 15 MLAs, the CPI has secured 17 seats with about 7.5%, and even parties with around 3% vote share have managed five seats. The BJP’s problem is not votes alone, but vote efficiency.Still, Delhi believes there is a base to build on. Assembly-level data from recent contests show the BJP polling over 35,000 votes in 12 constituencies, and between 30,000 and 35,000 in another 13. In nine seats, their performance crossed the 40,000 mark, with Nemom and Vattiyurkavu topping the list. The internal assessment is that these 34 Assembly segments together represent a credible launchpad, if consolidation holds.The mandate from Delhi is blunt: a minimum of five Assembly seats in 2026. Names doing the rounds include Rajeev Chandrasekhar in Nemom, V Muraleedharan in Kazhakkoottam, R Sreelekha in Vattiyurkavu, Shobha Surendran in Aroor, and Sandeep Vachaspathi in Chengannur, PK Krishnadas in Kattakkada, K Surendran in Kodungallur–Thrissur, and ML Ashwini in Manjeshwaram.The BJP expects the heavy central signalling, and the momentum, if announced loudly enough and early enough, can reshape a stubborn electoral arithmetic. Top-tier / Core focus seats (these are repeatedly flagged internally)• Nemom• Vattiyurkavu• Kattakkada Seats with 35,000+ votes (High potential cluster)• Kovalam• Vattiyurkavu• Parassala• Chirayinkeezhu• Kottarakkara• Puthukkad• Irinjalakuda• Kodungallur• Nattika• Ottapalam• Palakkad• Mavelikkara Seats with 30,000–35,000 votes (Secondary target list)• Thiruvananthapuram• Attingal• Kunnathur• Aranmula• Karunagappally• Kundara• Chelakkara• Vadakkanchery• Manalur• Shornur• Kunnamangalam• Kozhikode North• Nenmara Other seats explicitly mentioned in strategic discussions• Kazhakkoottam• Aroor• Chengannur• Thrissur• Manjeshwaram Why Congress decided to play hardball with DMKThe Congress’ sudden tough talk on power sharing in Tamil Nadu did not come out of nowhere.On December 3, the high-level committee formed to hold seat-sharing talks with the DMK met Tamil Nadu Congress functionaries. Much to the surprise of senior leaders, a majority of those present said they were open to exploring an alliance led by Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).A senior leader who attended the meeting told TNM that the functionaries demanded a firm commitment from the DMK of at least 41 seats and a share in power for the Congress to stay on in the alliance.Soon after, when the committee met Chief Minister MK Stalin as a courtesy call, a senior DMK leader conveyed a blunt message. The DMK, he said, was not willing to give the Congress more than 15-20 seats and said that the DMK will form a seat sharing committee in February. This position was communicated to Girish Chodankar, the AICC in-charge for Tamil Nadu.It is in this backdrop that AICC Professionals Congress chief Praveen Chakravarthy’s meeting with TVK chief Vijay took place. Within the Congress, this was seen as a pressure tactic and political messaging.This also explains why Girish Chodankar soon began making an open pitch for more seats and a share in power, breaking from the traditionally cautious tone the Congress has adopted in Tamil Nadu.Meanwhile, TVK leaders claim they have been receiving feelers from Congress leaders seeking meetings with Vijay. Will Kanimozhi contest in the 2026 Assembly elections?There is strong buzz within the DMK that a few leaders want Kanimozhi Karunanidhi to contest in the upcoming 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. The move is said to be driven by pressure from senior leaders in the party. Reliable sources told TNM that several DMK seniors have reached out to her, urging her to shift to state politics.So far, Kanimozhi has been seen as the DMK’s point person in Delhi and has been in close contact with the Congress and other alliance partners. However, in some instances, she has been overshadowed by MK Stalin’s son-in-law, Sabarisan, in reaching out to the Congress leadership.TNM had earlier reported in Powertrip that Sabarisan had met Congress president Mallikarjuna Kharge to constitute a high-level committee to hold seat-sharing talks with the DMK.Kanimozhi has been actively touring several parts of the state. 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