TN and Kerala exit polls: Believable or not?
In the first part of this week’s South Central, hosts Dhanya Rajendran and Pooja Prasanna discuss the Kerala and Tamil Nadu exit polls and the recent political developments in both states. They are joined by TNM’s Tamil Nadu bureau chief Shabbir Ahmed, Kerala bureau chief Haritha John, and senior reporter Azeefa Fathima.
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Dhanya first recalls the various exit polls, which came on April 29. She particularly mentions the AXIS My India exit polls, which say that the AIADMK will be pushed to the third position, after DMK and TVK. In Kerala, she cites how the exit polls predict a comeback for the UDF.
Shabbir says that we must take exit polls with a pinch of salt. “In 2016, except C Voter, all others said one thing in Tamil Nadu, but the opposite happened. But with AXIS, I feel that it has captured the mood of the state. The competition was between DMK and TVK. A couple of other polls also said the same. Initially, all opinion polls said TVK would not win double-digit seats. But exit polls say this will happen. This means Vijay has the power to convert seats in Tamil Nadu. Vijay is a household name; his popularity is huge. What was disappointing was how the Dravidian parties were handling TVK. They underestimated the party, and that became TVK’s strength,” he says.
Dhanya says that what will make or break it for Vijay will be around 20 per cent. “I think TVK peaked, especially with Vijay’s last speech. After polls, several journalists and strategists said this 20 could move up to even 30 per cent. Which means he would eat into DMK, AIADMK, NTK and everyone else’s vote shares,” she adds.
She also says that strategists pointed out two things. “If Vijay has to crack 35%, he has to do well across. But according to AXIS, he is mainly only doing well in two regions. Even if Vijay does 30 or 35%, the real question is how a first-time party is polling such a remarkable share of votes. This should lead the other parties to ask what went wrong,” she adds.
Pooja points out that the fatigue with existing parties could also be a major contributor here.
“With TVK, what struck me was that it looked like a script given to people as to how Vijay, with a 200 crore income yearly, left that and came to serve people,” she says.
“The need for change and Vijay’s leaving a lucrative career is what motivated people, in my experience. But there is no concrete answer to what kind of change he would bring. The promise of his protecting women was also huge. I felt this could also be a shadow of his films, how he protects women on screen or goes up against the big bad guys,” says Azeefa.
“While NCRB data says crimes have come down, and seizures have been less with respect to narcotics, the AIADMK’s narrative about the drug and crime problem could also have helped Vijay,” says Pooja.
Shabbir says that the principal Opposition, AIADMK, did not take these issues up. “The DMK was on an offensive, unbothered about these issues, which may have helped Vijay to pick on them and gain some momentum. The manner in which Vijay conducted campaigns and his last two days of speeches were well-executed. Some of the TVK cadres I spoke to said they wanted that last-minute speech at the Nananam grounds. The other parties did not anticipate this. He went after the BJP, AIADMK and others in this speech, which impacted voters. He has also been able to create a buzz among even the so-called apolitical young voters and students,” he points out.
Haritha says that in coastal regions, TVK appears to be a perfect alternative. “They are tired of AIADMK because of the BJP alliance, and DMK has triggered fatigue as well. The youngsters have been supporting Vijay, leading to a change in the scenario for the elders of their families as well. Even religious leaders say that Vijay, being a Christian, is desirable in the coastal areas like Kanyakumari. These constituencies have long been wanting a candidate from their community,” she adds.
In Kerala, as exit polls predict a comeback for the UDF, the local polls do suggest that some big names may be on shaky grounds.
“Kalamassery, with Minister P Rajeeve, Aranmula with Veena George, Thrithala with MB Rajesh, are some seats which appear shaky for the LDF. This time, though, even if the exit polls are to be believed, the UDF has not performed enough to gain from it. This time, there is extreme anti-incumbency, but despite that, the UDF has not been able to make as much of a gain. We cannot say there is a clear UDF wave,” says Haritha.
Haritha and Azeefa also say that despite the UDF gaining some votes, several people still feel that as a CM, Pinarayi Vijayan would make for a better leader with the front backing him. They touch upon the internal chaos in the UDF and the anti-BJP aspirations of the people for this.
Dhanya also asks who will be the CM if the UDF comes to power. The panel then delves into the question of whether it is good for the democracy that a front is elected to power again, after a 10-year run, whether it is fair that LDF banks on Pinarayi alone to lead, and so on.
In the second part of the episode, the hosts discuss the World Press Freedom Index 2026, released by Reporters Without Borders (RSF), also known as Reporters Sans Frontières, in which India has been ranked at 157. They are joined by senior journalist Laxmi Murthy, who is also the founder and co-editor of the Free Speech Collective.
Dhanya starts the discussion by pointing out how the index says that across the world, journalists have been feeling the pinch with press freedom being constantly threatened.
“We are sinking lower and lower. This millennium has seen quite severe dips in press freedom. Across the world, the situation is the worst in war-torn countries and countries affected by strife. The RSF report has used the term legal arsenal, which is a very military term that suggests how the law is being weaponised against the media. We found 14875 violations in our own research, and the bulk of them were instances of mass censorship, mainly shutting down the internet and the like. When we look at such a large scale of intimidation, the media is being squeezed through the legal route, world over, and also specifically in India. This also dumps a huge burden on most journalists in terms of dealing with the cases, figuring out finances, and so on,” says Laxmi.
Dhanya points out that media threat is not just government oppression or censorship, but also internet shutdowns and ownership of media. “In India, industrialists, real estate groups and many other parties with vested interests own media outlets. This manipulates media reportage, which again puts the population in peril by not reflecting their interests,” she says.
Laxmi says that the use of central agencies like the ED, NIA and the like to intimidate the media is on the rise. “There is almost no accountability or transparency. The NIA has summoned journalists several times, without even telling them what the charges are. Particularly in places like Kashmir, journalists do not even speak about it anymore. This also extends to their families and parents, and there is no record of this kind of intimidation. Non-state actors and corporate houses are also intimidating media houses. When all bodies which can be approached like the EC, courts, are being manipulated, what is the recourse?” she asks.
She adds that this lack of accountability is what puts India on the global map of countries with heightened media freedom clampdowns.
Dhanya says that those most affected are the journalists working from smaller districts. “Some of these journalists say in the places where they report. Just two days ago, a journalist was hacked to death in Andhra Pradesh,” she says.
Laxmi adds that such journalists are also often disowned by the organisations that commission their reports. “So there is no protection or even parity of payment in such cases,” she says. She further adds that the criminalisation and vilification of journalists lays the ground to then slap cases on them under draconian laws like the UAPA.
Audio Timecodes
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:03:58 - Headlines
00:14:04 - Kerala & Tamil Nadu exit polls
00:51:25 - India slips in Press Freedom Index
1:18:15 - Recommendations
Recommendations:
Dhanya Rajendran
Outrageous Acts and Everyday Rebellions
Laxmi Murthy
Azeefa Fathima
References:
Pinarayi Vijayan: Why Kerala election is about one man
In TN’s fishing hamlets, Vijay’s rise meets both support and scepticism
The Vijay factor: Big crowds and bigger questions
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Produced by Jaseem Ali, Megha Mukundan, edited by Jaseem Ali, written by Sukanya Shaji, Camera by Ajay R