Mizoram: Exit polls suggest potential hung assembly, Congress seats to be decisive

In 2018, the Mizo National Front won 27 out of 40 seats in the state while national parties did not fare too well.
L-R: Mizoram CM Zoramthanga and ZPM party leader Lalduhoma
L-R: Mizoram CM Zoramthanga and ZPM party leader Lalduhoma
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Four out of five exit polls for the northeastern state of Mizoram predicted a hung assembly. The elections to the state Assembly were held in a single phase on November 7 for its 40 Assembly constituencies.

ETG-Times Now exit polls have predicted a hung assembly with Mizo National Front (MNF) 14-18 seats and Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) – an alliance of six regional parties – securing 10-14 seats. ETG also predicts 9-13 seats for Congress and 0-2 seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). 

The P-Marq exit polls also predicted a hung assembly with the Mizo National Front (MNF) winning 14-20 seats and the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) winning 9-15 seats. According to P-Marq, Congress will win 7-13 seats, which will be decisive in determining who comes to power in the state. 

Meanwhile, the Jan Ki Baat exit poll points to the possibility of a ZPM alliance of eight parties predicted to win 15-25 seats. MNF, meanwhile, is predicted to win 10-14 seats. Here too, the 5-9 seats predicted to go in favour of Congress are likely to prove decisive in choosing the government if ZPM fails to cross the 20-seat mark. Jan Ki Baat predicts 0-2 seats for the BJP. 

On the other hand, ABP-C Voter has predicted a narrow win for the MNF with 15-21 seats followed by ZPM with 12-18 seats. Similar to other exit polls, C Voter also predicts 2-8 seats for the INC. 

However, only India Today’s Axis My India exit poll predicted a sweep for ZPM which is expected to win 28-35 seats. The poll also indicated that the incumbent party MNF is expected to win only 3-5 seats. The poll further predicted that Congress would win 2-4 seats, while the BJP would secure 0-2 seats. 

In 2018, the MNF won 27 out of 40 seats in the state. National parties did not fare too well as the Congress won only four seats while the BJP won just one. The remaining eight seats were won by the ZPM. The current Chief Minister of the state is Zoramthanga, the president of the MNF. 

During the last elections, MNF had the highest vote share with 38.4% followed by Congress with 30%. ZPM had a vote share of 23% while the BJP secured 8.1% of the vote share.

Mizoram had one of the highest voter turnouts in both 2013 and 2018 with 80.8% and 81.6% respectively. This year, Mizoram’s voter turnout was 78.40%.

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