The India Today-Axis exit polls have predicted a landslide victory for the incumbent Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Madhya Pradesh, with the numbers projecting the ruling party to win 140-162 seats, with a total vote share of 47%. The exit polls predicted the Congress to bag 68-90 seats with a total vote share of 41%, while the others were predicted to bag 0-3 seats.
On the other hand, the exit polls conducted by ABP News - CVoter predicted Congress will form the government in Madhya Pradesh. The numbers projected give the Congress 113 to 137 seats with a total vote share expected to be around 44% while pegging the BJP between 88 - 112 seats with a vote share of 40.7%. The BSP has been projected to win 1 to 5 seats. Others are expected to win 1-6.
Meanwhile the exit polls conducted by Jan Ki Baat predict a hung assembly. It predicts Congress to win 100-123 seats, 102-125 seats for the BJP and 5 seats for others.
Exit polls conducted by P-MARQ also predict a hung assembly for Madhya Pradesh. It puts the Congress and BJP with an equal vote share of 43.1% and 103-122 seats. It predicts 3-8 seats for others.
Both the BJP and Congress have contested in all the 230 seats, while the BSP have fielded candidates in 181 constituencies, Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan's Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) in 86, Samajwadi party in 71, AAP in 66, CPI in 9 and CPI(M) in 4 seats.
In 2018 assembly polls, the Congress party ensured a narrow victory by bagging 114 of the total 229 seats they contested and secured a total vote share of 40.89%. Meanwhile, the BJP fell short of the majority by securing 109 seats with a total vote share of 41.02%.
While both the BJP and Congress fell short of the magic number of 115 seats, Congress led by Kamal Nath, managed to form the government with the support from independents.
However, in March 2020, the Kamal Nath government collapsed after MLAs close to Jyotiraditya Scindia left Congress to join BJP following a rift with Kamal Nath.