Cyclone Arnab explainer: How will it affect Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Tamil Nadu?

Cyclone Arnab has formed over the Bay of Bengal and is expected to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm before crossing the Andhra Pradesh coast on Wednesday, October 28. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of strong winds and heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in parts of Andhra Pradesh and neighbouring Odisha.

According to the IMD’s cyclone bulletin issued on October 26, the storm is expected to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of October 28, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 115-125 kmph and gusts reaching 140 kmph.

Authorities in both states have stepped up preparations, including mobilising rescue teams, identifying vulnerable areas and making arrangements for evacuations. Reuters reported on October 26 that Andhra Pradesh had identified around 5.7 lakh people as vulnerable to the cyclone, with evacuations expected to begin that evening.

But where exactly is the cyclone headed? Which districts are likely to be affected, and what does it mean for Tamil Nadu, which is already experiencing heavy northeast monsoon rainfall?

Where is Cyclone Arnab now, and when will it make landfall?

The IMD said that at 5.30 am on October 26, Cyclone Arnab was centred over the east-central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal, around 650 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 730 km east-southeast of Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh. It was moving westwards at around 15 kmph.

According to the IMD, the system is expected to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by midnight on October 26 and a very severe cyclonic storm on October 27. It is then likely to move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast.

The storm has been forecast to cross the coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam, by the forenoon of October 28. The Indian Express reported that the IMD expects sustained winds of 115-125 kmph, with gusts of up to 140 kmph, around landfall.

Which areas are likely to be affected?

Coastal Andhra Pradesh is expected to bear the brunt of the cyclone, with parts of southern Odisha likely to experience heavy rainfall and strong winds.

The IMD has issued a red warning for extremely heavy rainfall in several coastal Andhra Pradesh districts. These include Kakinada, Eluru, East Godavari, West Godavari, NTR and Krishna districts. Rainfall could exceed 200 mm in 24 hours at isolated places in these districts.

An orange warning has been issued for very heavy rainfall in Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Anakapalli, Alluri Sitharama Raju and Parvathipuram Manyam districts, where rainfall could reach 110-200 mm in 24 hours.

The IMD has also warned of a storm surge of around 1 to 1.5 metres above the astronomical tide in low-lying areas of Andhra Pradesh during landfall. According to its coastal bulletin, the highest surge is expected around East Godavari district, near Kakinada, and Yanam.

A storm surge is an abnormal rise in sea level caused mainly by a cyclone’s winds pushing seawater towards the coast. It can inundate low-lying coastal areas, particularly when it coincides with high tide.

What is the situation in Odisha?

Although the cyclone is forecast to make landfall in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha is also preparing for heavy rainfall, strong winds and possible flooding.

The IMD has issued a red warning for extremely heavy rainfall in five districts — Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri — on October 28. Other districts are also expected to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall.

Reuters reported on October 26 that the Odisha government had announced the closure of schools and colleges in five districts on October 27 and 28, while preparing to move people from low-lying areas to cyclone shelters. The state has also mobilised personnel and equipment for emergency response.

Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi has directed officials to prioritise public safety and evacuation. The administration is aiming to minimise casualties, drawing on the state’s experience in dealing with cyclones.

Heavy rainfall in hilly areas could also trigger landslides, while flooding and waterlogging could disrupt road connectivity and essential services.

Will Cyclone Arnab affect Tamil Nadu?

Tamil Nadu is already experiencing heavy rainfall due to an active northeast monsoon. However, the immediate threat from Cyclone Arnab is focused on Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.

According to DT Next’s report on the October 26 forecast, heavy to very heavy rainfall was forecast at isolated places in Pudukkottai, Sivaganga and Ramanathapuram districts on Monday. Several other districts, including Kanniyakumari, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, Tenkasi, Virudhunagar, Madurai, Theni, Dindigul, Karur and Tiruchi, were also under heavy-rain forecasts.

The state has already seen significant rainfall. Coimbatore city experienced waterlogging, with rainwater entering homes in parts of Selvapuram. The Nilgiris district also reported dozens of minor landslips following persistent rain.

The rainfall intensity is likely to come down in Tamil Nadu after October 26, although some districts could continue to receive rain. Residents should check the latest district-specific IMD forecasts, particularly in areas prone to flooding and landslides.

What precautions are authorities taking?

Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu has directed officials to remain on round-the-clock alert and prepare for evacuations, relief camps, medical assistance, drinking water supplies and power restoration.

Authorities have asked fishing boats to return to shore and are preparing for possible disruptions to electricity and other essential services. The state has identified vulnerable populations and is preparing to shift people from areas at risk.

In Kakinada, the Fisheries Department, Indian Coast Guard and district authorities have urged fishers not to venture into the sea. More than 4,800 fishing boats had returned safely to fishing harbours and landing centres along the Kakinada coast by October 26.

People in potentially affected areas should follow official evacuation instructions, avoid entering flooded roads or waterways, stay away from the coast during warnings and keep track of local administration announcements. Those in hilly areas should be alert to landslide warnings, particularly after prolonged rainfall.