In the Maharashtra Assembly election held in November 2024, the BJP-led Maha Yuti (Grand) alliance secured a landslide victory, winning 235 of the total 288 seats. The election is done and dusted, but not the political controversy it triggered. The Indian National Congress has alleged “industrial-level rigging” of elections after figures showed a jump of 41 lakh voters in six months between the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.
The Congress is also not convinced about the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) explanation on various allegations, including the unprecedented difference – 7.83% – in the provisional and final turnout. The party has now asked the ECI to provide machine readable electoral rolls and CCTV footage of polling booths.
In an email interview with TNM, All India Professionals’ Congress chairman Praveen Chakravarty says that it is statistically impossible to explain the massive increase in the number of voters. The sharing of voter lists on ‘piecemeal basis’ also makes it difficult to get a comprehensive overview, he says, questioning the ECI’s reluctance to share data.
The Election Commission credits its intensive campaign to the increase in the number of voters – close to 41 lakh – during the five months ahead of the Assembly polls in Maharashtra. It is also pointed out that a jump in the number of voters ahead of polls is not uncommon. Were the Congress or its allies unaware of this increase in voters?
It is important to understand the larger picture here. The issue is NOT one of increase in voters ahead of polls. The issue is the abnormal, sudden and massive surge of 40 lakh net addition in voters in five months between the Lok Sabha and the Vidhan Sabha elections. To put this in context, in the previous five years between the 2019 Vidhan Sabha elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in the same state, there were only 32 lakh new voters.
Doesn’t it defy common sense and logic to say that more new voters can be added in five months than in the previous full five years? Even a fifth grade student will know this is absurd because new voters can only be those that have turned 18 or adults previously not enrolled as voters, and they cannot fall from trees suddenly. So who are these new voters, where did they come from, what documents were checked?
If the EC claims that it was due to some intensive campaign, two questions – 1) what was so special about 2024 Vidhan Sabha election in Maharashtra alone for EC to have carried out such a campaign to enrol more voters in five months than in five years? 2) However intense a campaign may be, it is statistically impossible to explain such a massive increase. This phenomenon of more voters in five months than in the previous five years has never happened in India’s 70-year electoral history.
Aren’t voter lists and revisions shared with parties periodically? Then how is that you were unaware of the increase in number?
Sharing of voter lists on a piecemeal basis incrementally will not give a comprehensive overview. EC gives the rolls for each Assembly by each booth as a separate file, not as one consolidated file. Maharashtra has more than 1 lakh booths. That means 1 lakh different voter list files. How can one do a consolidated analysis on these? Basically, they give voter rolls deliberately in a manner that makes consolidated analysis much harder.
If each person is looking at only a specific part of the elephant, will anyone know the full size and shape of an elephant, as the old Sufi tale goes? This is similar. It’s a laughable defence by the EC.
Have your cadres done any on the ground checks? Are there areas where false addresses have been used in bulk? Or any other such major violation?
Yes, party cadre and candidates have pointed this out in various constituencies. One example is Shirdi where the candidate even did a video testimony of many students from outside the state being enrolled as voters without having clear documentation.
A recent India Today report cited an 84% increase between the LS and Assembly polls in 2019. So how can the 49% jump in 2024 be seen as a case of manipulation?
People who don’t understand data and trends should refrain from indulging in such analysis. Just throwing some numbers such as 49% or 84% without context shows the ignorance of these journalists. I have asked a clear question using EC’s own data – how did you add more new voters in five months than in five years? One does not need to understand data to know that this is completely illogical.
Rahul Gandhi, in an op-ed piece, alleged “industrial-scale rigging” in the Maharashtra elections. There is no doubt that the burden of proof lies with the EC. However, since these allegations have the potential to erode public confidence in the election process, as a responsible political party, have you conducted any ground level verifications into the allegations of fake voters. Also, there are questions as to why Congress workers failed to flag it when it happened.
If your house is robbed and you go to the police to report it, how will it be if the police turned around and said your security guard was sleeping and so it’s your fault. This is just as bizarre. Of course, there is no denying that the Congress party organisation could have been more watchful and all the so-called party ‘war rooms’ could have actually “warned” us about this issue back then. But that does not explain or condone the crime, does it?
The latest demand that the Congress has laid before the EC is to give access to machine readable data and CCTV footage of the voting day. The allegations and EC’s denials have been going on for the past few months. Is the Congress planning any legal recourse in the matter?
Yes, there is already a petition in the Supreme Court on this matter filed by Congress leaders. There are many in the state of Maharashtra too.
One particular seat Rahul Gandhi projected in his article as a case study was Kamthi constituency. Comparing the results of the LS and the Assembly polls, it was cited that the Congress maintained its votes while there was a 56,000 jump in the BJP’s votes. Congress directly linked it with 35,000 new voters added just before the Assembly polls. However, some reports pointed out the inaccuracy or the selective data interpretation in this as it was not BJP but its ally Shiv Sena that contested in the LS polls. Also as an Assembly constituency, Kamthi has been with the BJP since 2004. It won the same 54% vote share it gained in 2014.
This is not a sensible argument. The analysis clearly mentioned BJP+ to denote alliance. Picking on this silly thing and ignoring the larger message in this issue – when the same number of voters voted for the Congress alliance in LS voted for the Congress alliance in VS too, how come it won in LS and lost in VS is the question asked. And there are 45 more such constituencies. Rahul Gandhi pointed to a larger suspicious trend and cited Kamthi as an example. Ignoring the larger issue and nitpicking on BJP versus BJP+ is a clear sign that the BJP seems to have been caught red-handed.
The next major election will be for the Bihar Assembly. What are the additional steps that the Congress wants the EC to take to prevent any such allegations? There are fears that the proposed special intensive revision (SIR) might result in the disenfranchisement of a substantial number of electors of Bihar. What are the concerns ahead of the Bihar polls?
I urge the media to understand the seriousness and the gravity of this issue. This is not about Bihar or Maharashtra or Bengal or Kerala state elections. This is about a match being stolen in broad daylight in front of the whole stadium, and either the match referees are deliberately refusing to interfere or are in connivance. The question asked is – can matches continue to be played like this? It is not about the next match alone. India’s voter rolls are deeply flawed. EC’s SIR initiative in Bihar is a clear admission of this but their solution is worse than the problem.
ECI has published the Bihar electoral rolls on its website. You have been demanding the same for Maharashtra for a while. How do you respond to this?
It shows two things: 1) EC does have digital electoral rolls of all states for every year going back 20-30 years. 2) EC can make it available to the larger public if and when it wants.
So, why not Maharashtra 2024 rolls also? Why the guilt-ridden reluctance to do so?