Most exit polls have projected a hung Assembly in Karnataka. At least five exit polls have predicted Congress emerging as the single largest party, but fall short of a majority. The JD(S) is likely to play kingmaker in 2023 with most exit polls projecting that the regional party will win more than 20 seats. Two exit polls have given the Congress a majority. India Today-Axis My India has projected an outright majority for the Congress party with 122-140 seats, 62-80 seats for the BJP, 24-32 seats for JD(S) and 0-3 seats for others. News 23-Today’s Chanakya has predicted 120 seats (± 11 seats) for the Congress, BJP 92 (± 11 seats), JD(S) 12 (± 7 seats) and 0 (± 3 seats) for others.
ABP-C-Voter has projected between 109 to 129 seats for the Congress, 67-87 seats for BJP and 19-29 seats for JD(S) and 2-6 for others. TV 9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat has also projected that Congress will emerge a single largest party with 99-109 seats, 88-98 seats for BJP, 21-26 seats for JD(S) and 0-4 seats for others. Asianet Suvarna-Jan Ki Baat is the only exit poll that projects BJP emerging as the single largest party. The exit poll gives the ruling party 94-117 seats, 91-106 seats for Congress, while JD(S) will get 14-24 and 0-2 seats for others. Times Now-ETG Research exit poll has projected 106-120 seats for the Congress, 78-92 seats for the BJP and 20-26 seats for JDS and 2-4 for others.
With 224 seats in the Karnataka Assembly, a party needs 113 seats to form the government. The 2018 Karnataka Assembly Elections threw up a fractured mandate, with the BJP emerging the single largest party, winning 104 seats. The Congress won 78 seats while the JD(S) picked up 37 seats. BS Yediyurappa was invited to form the government and was sworn in as Chief Minister. But he stepped down three days later, just before the trust vote. The Congress and JD(S) came together to form the coalition government with HD Kumaraswamy as Chief Minister. However, this government lasted for 13 months after 17 MLAs belonging to the Congress and the JD(S) defected to the BJP in July 2019. While Yediyurappa returned as CM, he stepped down in 2021, being replaced by Basavaraj Bommai.
