In Karnataka BJP internal feud, a political consultancy caught in the crosshairs

The ongoing feud between Karnataka BJP leaders BS Yediyurappa and BL Santhosh has taken a new turn. With Yediyurappa’s son Vijayendra at the helm of the party in the state, Varahe Analytics, Santhosh’s brainchild, finds itself in the crosshairs. This lesser-known consultancy, started by political strategist Sunil Kanugolu’s protégés in 2022, was surprisingly tasked with shaping the BJP’s Karnataka poll strategy. But Vijayendra wants them to take a step back and has provided the party a set of reasons for his decision..Following the BJP’s loss in the Karnataka Assembly elections last year, the role of Varahe Analytics came under the scanner. Varahe, one of the three political consultancy groups employed by the BJP, enjoys the confidence of national general secretary BL Santhosh, who held considerable sway in Karnataka BJP. But the final election results revealed that Varahe’s numbers were way off the mark and BJP leaders who had till then grudgingly cooperated with the strategists started questioning their competence and intent. Varahe had been tasked with many aspects of electioneering when Basavaraj Bommai was the Chief Minister. Ahead of the elections, they conducted surveys to assess the winnability of aspiring candidates, designed the party’s social media campaign, and gave inputs on the direction in which the election campaign was to be taken.Six months after the elections, a new BJP president was appointed, somebody on whom Santhosh has no sway. Vijayendra has decided that he will not outsource the job of shortlisting candidates for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections to Varahe Analytics. He has presented to the party high command the numbers predicted by Varahe and a few of their recommendations for the Assembly elections that backfired.The previous BJP state president, Nalin Kumar Kateel, was happy to oblige BL Santhosh and went with the recommendations given by Varahe Analytics for the Assembly polls. After all, Kateel owed his appointment as BJP president to Santhosh. According to a source in the BJP, Varahe had submitted a report that said that the BJP will win in over 31,000 booths in Karnataka, ensuring the party crosses the 110 mark easily. The BJP managed to win 66 seats..TNM had reported that many aspiring candidates had been rejected based on surveys conducted by Varahe that apparently showed that the candidate will not win, but according to Vijayendra and his loyalists, the surveys were fabricated based on inputs by BL Santhosh. This list of leaders to reject included names of former CM Jagadish Shettar and former DyCM Laxman Savadi, both of whom quit the BJP in a huff and joined Congress and contested elections.The election manifesto was also designed and compiled by Varahe although inputs were taken from BJP leaders. In addition, tracking social media mood, suggesting campaigns, opinion shaping exercises were all tasked to Varahe. A BJP insider alleged that in their survey, Varahe only spoke to people within their eco chamber who gave the impression that BJP will get a simple majority, failing to speak to a cross-section of voters. Their assurance that BJP will make significant inroads in the Old Mysuru region proved to be wildly inaccurate.In addition to failing to read the pulse of the voters accurately, Varahe has also been blamed for being ineffective in responding to Congress’s campaign against former CM Bommai, particularly with allegations of corruption. In a meeting with BJP office bearers early on after being appointed the state president, Vijayendra has made it clear that he will limit the role of Varahe. Presently, they have been confined to research and social media analysis and kept away from surveys and predictions.The role of most political consultancies is mostly advisory and the final onus of the performance in elections lies with the party..Varahe and the people behind it BJP presently has three political consultancies working for them – Association of Brilliant Minds (ABM), Varahe Analytics, and Nation With Namo. ABM was started by strategist Sunil Kanugolu, who officially joined the Congress in March 2022. ABM works mostly in north Indian states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, Namo With Nation has been taking care of eastern states like West Bengal and the north east. Varahe has been working in the south, particularly Karnataka, Telangana, and now Tamil Nadu. They also worked in Chhattisgarh ahead of the Assembly elections and in the past, have done work in Goa and Uttarakhand.Varahe is a small group of professionals with backgrounds in business, management, data analysis, IT, law, and journalism. Most of them worked with Sunil Kanugolu in ABM during the 2017 campaign for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. A source told us that it was then they were introduced to BL Santhosh by Sunil Kanugolu.While Himanshu Singh who heads ABM is believed to be Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s man, Rangesh Sridhar- the brain behind Varahe- is said to be close to BL Santhosh. Rangesh has previously worked with other political consultancy groups like I-PAC, ABM, and Mindshare Analytics. His wife Dhanya Parthasarathy and father Krishnaswamy are directors in Varahe.Another director of the company, Rahul, has a background in business and law and worked with Nation With Namo before Varahe. He was the lead policy advisor for Karnataka Minister Ashwath Narayan for almost two years. A member of Ashwath Narayan’s team, Shreyas Bharadwaj, too joined Varahe, heading the research department. He has worked earlier with Nation With Namo and did a brief stint with right-leaning magazine Swarajya before that. He worked extensively on BJP’s campaign in 2018 in Karnataka. .Vijayendra’s Plan B Varahe’s work does not stop after the elections conclude. In states where they are in the opposition, like in Karnataka, they continue to engage with the BJP. A source said that much of the campaigning against the Siddaramaiah government, especially on social media, is orchestrated and implemented by Varahe. This is one job that Vijayendra does not want to take away from Varahe, but as far as candidate selection goes, he is touring the state and holding meetings with BJP office bearers and leaders from each district. Presently, Vijayendra has completed visits to eight districts and is expected to resume the next leg of his tour after Sankranthi celebrations on January 15.Vijayendra has decided that he will draw up a list of names based on the inputs he gets from ground-level party workers and present it to the BJP high command with the assurance that if he is allowed to field all the candidates on his list, he will win upwards of 22 seats for the BJP in Karnataka. In 2019, the BJP had won 25 of the 28 Lok Sabha constituencies and with the Congress back in power, a repeat of their stupendous performance will be an uphill task.According to a source close to the BJP president, Vijayendra aims to replace at least 10 of the current Members of Parliament. Notable names of those who are likely to not make it to Vijayendra’s list include former CM DV Sadananda Gowda who, after hearing whispers on the grapevine that he may not get a LS ticket, announced his retirement from electoral politics in November 2023. Another high profile miss could be former Union minister and motor-mouth Hindutva leader Anant Kumar Hegde. Sitting Union Minister Bhagwanth Khuba, the MP from Bidar, too may not be repeated.Parvatagouda C Gaddigoudar from Bagalkot, Ramesh Jigajinagi from Vijaypura, Shivkumar Chanabasappa Udasi from Gadag, Srinivasa Prasad from Chamarajanagar, Bache Gowda from Chikballapur, GM Siddeshwara from Davanagere, and an MP from Dakshina Kannada district may all face the ax.In the feud between two camps – BL Santhosh and Yediyurappa – Varahe has been caught in the crossfire and with Yediyurappa prevailing for now, Varahe’s role and reach has been curtailed a great deal.