The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted a heavy rainfall spell over Kerala for four days. Yellow alert has been declared across all 14 districts in Kerala from October 20 to 23. Heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, and squall (localised storms) are expected across the state, according to the IMD website.
IMD’s press bulletin dated October 19 stated that a cyclonic circulation that is persisting over north Andaman Sea and neighbourhood since October 18 had extended up to mid tropospheric levels on October 19. The cyclonic circulation is likely to form a low-pressure area over the south east and adjoining East central Bay of Bengal on Thursday.
The low-pressure area will likely move in the west-northwest direction and concentrate into a depression by the morning of October 22 over Central Bay of Bengal, the IMD said. In the subsequent 48 hours, it may intensify into a cyclonic storm over West central Bay of Bengal. “A north-south trough runs from South east Arabian Sea off Kerala coast to cyclonic circulation over East central Arabian Sea off Maharashtra coast in lower tropospheric levels,” the press bulletin read. Hence, “rain or thundershower is most likely to occur at most places in Kerala and Lakshadweep from October 19 to 23,” it noted.
On Thursday, heavy rain is expected in Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram, Wayanad and Kozhikode. The IMD’s forecast suggests that heavy rain will subside in the next three days, even though there is a prediction of thunderstorm and lightning for up to five days.
The immediate forecast for Thursday morning says that Kottayam, Ernakulam and Kochi stations are likely to witness light thunderstorms with maximum surface wind speed less than 40 kmph. Moderate rain is expected in 17 stations till afternoon on Thursday.