'Strict social distancing' can reduce coronavirus cases by 62%: ICMR

The paper also stated that screening of passengers at entry point could cause a three day to three week delay in the onset of the virus in a community.
'Strict social distancing' can reduce coronavirus cases by 62%: ICMR
'Strict social distancing' can reduce coronavirus cases by 62%: ICMR
Written by:

In a paper submitted towards the end of February 2020, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has predicted that strict social distancing would reduce the number of expected cases of COVID-19 in the country by 62%. This is a part of the findings by ICMR through a mathematical modeling.

The paper submitted by researchers in the ICMR and published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research on March 23, 2020 suggests that social distancing measures like home quarantining symptomatic and suspected cases, when strictly implemented, can bring down the 'peak number' of positive cases (the highest number before cases start coming down) also by 89%. The paper also suggests that entry level screening of travellers with COVID-19-like symptoms can cause a three day to three week delay in the virus getting into the community.

The ICMR paper has provided validation to the global claim of effective social distancing and isolation helping countries to slow down the progress of infection among its population, thus flattening the booming curve of coronavirus positive cases. An article in the Washington Post had earlier attempted to create simulations of the society amid the spread of coronavirus. The four situations that were simulated in the story were -- a ‘Free for all’ situation in which no restriction is imposed on the citizens in the middle of a raging pandemic, an ‘attempted quarantine’ situation in which the government authorities impose mandatory quarantine on the people living in a locality, a ‘moderate distancing’ situation in which 75% of the population practises social distancing effectively and an ‘extensive distancing’ situation in which 87.5% of the population successfully practices social distancing. The result of those simulations showed that in the fourth case, in which 87.5% of the people living in a locality practised social distancing, the rate at which the virus spread was slow, and the number of positive cases tested over a period of time was also less, before things started slowing down.

Several Indian states have imposed complete lockdown and prohibitory orders under section 144 to prevent people from gathering in public places in large numbers. States like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have also closed their interstate borders to prevent unnecessary movement of people between the states.

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), India had zero active cases of COVID-19 as on February 28, 2020. The three positive cases that were reported in Kerala had been discharged by February 20, 2020. On March 9, India had 44 cases of COVID-19 which increased to over 500 by March 24.

Related Stories

No stories found.
The News Minute
www.thenewsminute.com