Retail inflation rose marginally to 4.91% in November, mainly due to an uptick in food prices, government data showed on Monday, December 13. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 4.48% in October 2021 and 6.93% in November 2020. As per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), food inflation was at 1.87% in November this year compared to 0.85% in the preceding month.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which mainly factors in the retail inflation while arriving at its bi-monthly monetary policy, expects the inflation print to be somewhat higher over the rest of the year as base effects turn adverse. According to the RBI, it is expected that headline inflation will peak in the fourth quarter of the current fiscal and soften thereafter.
Earlier this week, projecting the inflation trajectory in line with its earlier estimate, the RBI also said the retail inflation is expected to be around 5.3% during the current fiscal year. It is expected to ease further to 5% by the first quarter of the next fiscal year, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said while announcing the monetary policy for the last time of this fiscal. The inflation trajectory is likely to be in line with our earlier projections, and price pressures may persist in the immediate term, Das said.
Read: RBI keeps GDP growth forecast at 9.5%, inflation unchanged at 5.3%
At the time, Das said that RBI's monetary policy stance is primarily attuned to the evolving domestic inflation and growth dynamics. The reduction of excise duty and value added tax (VAT) on petrol and diesel will bring about a durable reduction in inflation by way of direct effects as well as indirect effects operating through fuel and transportation costs, the governor added.
With PTI inputs