The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance may not garner a full majority in the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections but may comfortably win to form the government if it goes for post-election alliances, according to a State of the Nation opinion poll by CVoter.
In a scenario where there is no grand alliance in the state of Uttar Pradesh, the NDA may get over 300 seats out of the total 543.
The opinion poll, which was carried out after the airstrikes carried out on Jaish-E-Mohammad (JeM) terror camps across the border, has projected that the NDA will get 264 seats while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is expected to get 141 seats. Other parties are expected to get around 138 seats.
If there is no grand alliance in Uttar Pradesh, the NDA will get 307 seats and the UPA will settle for 139 and all other parties are expected to get 97. In terms of seats, the BJP is expected to get 220 seats on its own and the allies are likely to get 44.
According to the survey, if the NDA gets into a post-election alliance with south parties like the YSR Congress and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti – in addition to other parties like the Mizo National Front (MNF) and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) – the NDA tally may go up to 301. The YSRCP may add around 11 seats to the NDA’s tally and the TRS may add 16 seats to the NDA tally.
Though TRS has been saying that they are part of the federal front, it is widely speculated that once the elections are over, Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao will join the NDA. Jagan Mohan Reddy of the YSR Congress party is also expected to join the NDA post polls. With the public sentiment in Andhra not in favour of the BJP, Jagan has not spoken about the national party at all. But post-poll, like KCR, Jagan too in all likelihood will join the NDA.
Meanwhile, the Congress alone is expected to get 86 seats and its allies will add around 55 seats. If the UPA opts for a post-poll alliance with parties like All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Left Democratic Front (LDF), MGB (Mahagathbandhan in UP), Trinamool Congress (TMC), its tally will go up to 226.
The BJP is expected to make major chunk of seats from Bihar (36, up from 22 in 2014), Gujarat (24, two down from all 26 seats in the state bagged by the BJP), Karnataka (16, one down from 2014), Madhya Pradesh (24, two down from 26 won last time), Maharashtra (36, 13 more than 23 won in 2014), Odisha (12, against only 1 last time) and Rajasthan (20, four down from 2014).
The Congress will improve its 2014 tally of 44 by getting most of the seats from Assam (7, up from 3 in 2014), Chhattisgarh (5 against only 1 in last election), Kerala (14, one more than 2014), Karnataka (9, same as last time), Jharkhand (5, a seat less than last time), Madhya Pradesh (5, against 3 last time), Maharashtra (7, a marginal improvement from 4 in 2014), Punjab (12 against 3 last time), Rajasthan (5, up from nil in 2014), Tamil Nadu (4 against nil last time) and Uttar Pradesh (4, up from 2).
In terms of vote share, the NDA is likely to get 31.1 per cent of votes against 30.9 for the UPA. The other parties are likely to get 28 per cent.
The CVoter opinion poll also added that PM Narendra Modi’s approval rating rose from 47% on the first day of the year to 62% by March 7, 2019. Congress President Rahul Gandhi’s rating has dropped from 26% to 16% in the same time period.
(With IANS inputs)