A new model makes the case for children returning to schools in India

Based on their model, the authors point out that in regions with high seropositivity, the increase in COVID-19 cases is expected to be marginal.
School girls with backpacks over their backs going to school
School girls with backpacks over their backs going to school
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With many states across the country reopening schools for several classes even as concerns over a possible third COVID-19 wave are abound, a mathematical model suggests that an increase in cases among children is expected, but it will not lead to a new wave in the country. The findings of the model, authored by Brian Wahl, Sandeep Krishna and Gautam Menon and published in The Hindu, make a case for children returning to school.

Brian Wahl is an Assistant Scientist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, in the US; Sandeep Krishna is an Associate Professor at the Simons Centre for the Study of Living Machines, National Centre for Biological Sciences, in Bengaluru; and Gautam Menon is a professor at Ashoka University, Sonepat and at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai. “Seropositivity levels in children are comparable to those in adults — keeping children at home has not served the purpose of keeping them from becoming infected. This is a point whose importance has been insufficiently stressed: if children are as likely to pick up an infection from the community while staying at home, there is little reason to keep them out of school,” they write. 

Based on their model, the authors point out that in regions with high seropositivity, the increase in cases is expected to be marginal. However, they note that children are at lower risk of severe COVID-19 disease and only very few infections are likely to lead to complications. In states like Kerala and Maharashtra, where the seropositivity is low, the authors recommend studying the current levels of antibodies among its population. Once the seropositivity crosses the 80% level, schools can be reopened. 

The authors emphasise finding a right balance between the “long-term consequences of disruptions in learning and socialisation in children and the short-term possibility of their contracting an infection.” However, they note that given that the COVID-19 epidemic in India is likely to transition into endemicity – where the disease is limited to a particular area – there appears little reason to keep schools closed.  

Another key finding of the model is that the opening of schools is also unlikely to lead to an increase among adults. By increasing vaccinations among older adults – particularly prioritising families of school-going children who have elderly persons – and adhering to COVID-appropriate behaviour like masking and ventilation, among others, they note infections can be further restricted. These interventions need to be continued until there is an overall seroprevalence of 75%-80%, the authors state. 

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