May 23 was a day of historical significance for the BJP in Karnataka. The party accomplished what seemed like an unachievable feat just a couple of decades ago – the decimation of the Congress in Karnataka. It was a washout for the Congress-JD(S) alliance in Karnataka, as the BJP won 25 out of the 28 constituencies in the state. The results came as a massive embarrassment to the Congress, which had prided itself in reigning over Karnataka for decades at a time. The tables have turned and the status quo has been demolished.
For the first time in the state, the BJP secured a 51.4% vote share, while the Congress scraped through with a negligible 31.9%. Even a decade ago, the BJP in Karnataka could not have achieved such a monumental feat. So what changed in Karnataka in 2019?
The traditional Congress voters shifted to BJP
One of the reasons why the Modi wave swept Karnataka and demolished traditional vote banks is due to the pre-poll alliance the Congress forged with the sub-regional party – the JD(S).
The vote base of the Congress – comprising the OBC, minority and Dalits ended up voting for the BJP. One of the most shocking turn of events was the BJP’s victory in the Old Mysuru region, which was a fortress of the Congress and JD(S).
The Old Mysuru Congress strongholds comprised the Mysuru-Kodagu, Mandya, Hassan, Kolar, Chikkaballapura, Tumakuru and Chamarajanagar constituencies.
This time around, in Kolar and Chikkaballapura, two Congress heavyweights KH Muniyappa and Veerappa Moily conceded defeat to the BJP candidates. This was because the members of the Chalavadi community along with the Marasu Vokkaligas voted for the BJP. The situation was the same in Chamarajanagar, where the votes of the OBC community went to BJP’s V Srinivas Prasad.
In Mysuru, Tumakuru and Mandya regions, the Congress vote base, including a certain section of Vokkaligas and the members of the Kuruba community voted for the BJP. This sudden shift in vote base is purely because of the coalition, says political analyst Mahadev Prakash.
“See, the people belonging to backward communities and certain sub-sects of the Dalit community have been unhappy with the Congress. This is because the Vokkaligas were traditionally the community which oppressed and humiliated those belonging to backward castes. There is history of violence and humiliation perpetrated by Vokkaligas that the minorities and OBCs cannot forgive. They will never vote for the JD(S) or anyone who supports the JD(S) simply because it is a party of those belonging to the feudal class. The alliance was a big mistake,” he added.
How the BJP gradually eroded the Congress voter base.
Since the first Lok Sabha election in 1951, when Karnataka was still the state of Mysore, the state has been a bastion of the Congress. Unlike its other southern counterparts, Karnataka has never had a strong regional leader or party that could withstand the might of the national parties. The Congress’ winning streak was first broken in 1998 when the party won 13 Lok Sabha segments.
Apart from its traditional vote bank comprising the Brahmin and upper caste communities, the BJP had managed to take away the support of the Lingayats from the Congress and Janata Dal. In addition, the BJP consolidated the votes of the Valmiki Nayak and Madiga communities in Central Karnataka and parts of the Maratha belt. This was done by wooing disgruntled and neglected Congress leaders belonging to these communities.
By 2004, the Congress and JD(S) had effectively managed to alienate leaders from the Lambani, Bovi, Koli and Idiga communities, which are prominent in Northern Karnataka and parts of Hyderabad-Karnataka. “Congress did not give importance to leaders from these communities. These leaders were time and again neglected. Congress adamantly gave preference to the issues of southern Karnataka and the political power too was consolidated by people from down south. This worked in favour of the BJP,” Mahadev Prakash added.
By 2014, the BJP had made inroads into several constituencies of Old Mysuru including Mysuru-Kodagu, Tumakuru and Kolar. “Those belonging to the Ganiga, Kumabar, Vishwakarma, Madiga and Chalavadi and Devanga communities in Old Mysuru shifted loyalties to the BJP because they never got adequate representation in the Congress. The party did have so many prominent local leaders who just defected to BJP because they were not given the importance,” he added.
This time around, the ill-conceived Congress-JD(S) coalition, coupled with decades of political dissatisfaction and the Modi wave broke the vote bank formula that has worked in Karnataka for decades.
“The Congress did not think beyond the age-old vote banks. They did not expect people to shift loyalties and vote against them. The Congress also overlooked one important thing – their vote bank would never support JD(S) come what may. They did not vote against the Congress but voted against the JD(S),” he said.