Karnataka elections: TV9-POLSTRAT predicts Congress will emerge single largest party

The TV9 Bharatvarsh-POLSTRAT exit polls for the Karnataka assembly elections predicted that the state is heading towards another close contest between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the principal opposition party, the Congress, with the Janata Dal (Secular) expected to finish third. The polls suggested that the BJP could get anywhere between 88 and 98 seats, while the Congress could win between 99 and 109 seats and the JD (S) is projected to win between 21 and 26 seats, leading to speculation that the regional party will play a decisive role in the formation of the next government.

According to their projections, the BJP is predicted to win 24-27 seats out of 50 constituencies in the Mumbai-Karnataka region, while Congress is projected to get 23 to 26 seats. In Bengaluru, the state capital, BJP is expected to win 15 to 17 seats out of the 32 constituencies, while Congress may get 13-15 seats and Janata Dal (Secular) (JDS) 0 to 2 seats.

Congress is expected to perform much better than the BJP in other regions. In the Old Mysore region, Congress is predicted to get 25-27 seats out of the 50 constituencies while BJP may win 6 to 9 seats and JD(S) 18 to 20 seats. In the Hyderabad-Karnataka region, Congress could win 18 to 20 seats and BJP 8 to 12 seats, with JD(S) winning one seat and others getting three seats. In Coastal Karnataka, BJP may win 15 to 18 seats and Congress 3 to 5 seats.

TV9-POLSTRAT was one of the few exit polls to explore the role of identities in the voting patterns. They predicted that the BJP will retain its popularity among Lingayats while the Congress would retain support of Muslims while making major gains among the Scheduled Caste voters. The projections also indicated that the BJP would do marginally better than the Congress among Vokkaliga voters even as the JD (S) is expected to secure the lion’s share of the community’s support.

Karnataka has a total of 224 seats and to form the government, a party or coalition needs to win a minimum of 113 seats. In 2018, BJP won 104 seats, Congress 78 seats, and JD(S) 37 seats. However, after bye-elections in 2019, the BJP managed to win over Congress and JD(S) legislators, increasing its numbers in the Assembly to 120. Meanwhile, the Congress was reduced to 69 seats, and JD(S) to 32 seats.