Fears of an economic crisis in India are likely to decrease and the country may recover from decelerating growth in 2020, a new report said on Tuesday.
According to US-based private equity firm Blackstone, this year the Modi government is likely to continue business-friendly growth reforms, and the Indian economy is likely to grow at 6%, while the markets could rise by up to 20%.
Blackstone Vice Chairman Byron Wien has teamed up with Chief Investment Strategist Joe Zidle this year to deliver their list of 'Ten Surprises for 2020', This is the 35th year that Wien has given his views on economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year.
Wien defines a "surprise" as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place, but which Wien believes is "probable", or having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.
Wien predicts that US President Donald Trump might not be convicted or removed from office in 2020.
Both China and the US may keep their hands off Hong Kong in 2020 and will wait for the protests in the latter to settle down by itself, Wien predicted.
Emboldened by the pain of economic sanctions, Iran is likely to take advantage of the US' unwillingness to intervene and step up acts of hostility against Israel and Saudi Arabia.
According to the report, economic problems in Russia may intensify even though the price of oil is rising this year. As a result, social unrest likely to spread in that country.
In 2020, anarchy and disharmony likely to spread throughout the world, creating turbulence in financial markets everywhere. Investors may turn away from emerging market local currency debt, forcing spreads higher, Wien predicted.
North Korea may agree to suspend its nuclear development programme after another meeting with President Trump in 2020, the report said.