The exit polls for the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections has projected a victory for the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) government, led by the CPI(M) leader Pinarayi Vijayan, breaking the state’s four-decade-old trend of anti-incumbency. Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is close behind LDF. BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is unlikely to make significant headway in Kerala this election, too, although they are projected to win more than one seat.
Most exit polls for the 2021 Kerala Assembly election have projected the LDF to win 70-77 seats, a likely decline in the number of seats in the previous election. Some polls have predicted a jump in UDF’s seats in the Kerala Assembly. Compared to the previous elections, the 2021 Assembly saw a major independent party in the fray, the Twenty20 Kizhakkambalam group.
In the 2016 Assembly election, LDF had won 91 seats, with a vote share of 43.48%. The UDF had won 47 seats, with a vote share of 38.81%. With a vote share of 14.96%, the NDA won one seat. Independent candidate PC George won from the Poonjar constituency in Kottayam district. While the CPI(M) had won 58 seats, the CPI had won 19 seats. Congress had won 22 seats, while its ally IUML had secured victory from 18 seats. BJP opened its account in the state with one seat in Nemom, Thiruvananthapuram.
Kerala 140 Assembly seats. The halfway mark is 70 seats. The results for the 2021 Assembly election will be announced on May 2, Sunday.
Four exit polls were conducted for the 2021 Assembly election: India Today-Axis, ABP News-C Voter, Republic TV-CNX and P-MARQ. Exit polls are surveys or polls that are conducted at polling stations after voters cast their votes. Many organisations specialising in election surveys, such as C fore, CVoters and Politique Marquer, conduct these exit polls using various methods, including sample size. Exit polls are not conclusive or accurate but give a broad idea of the mood of the state. There are many instances where the exit polls have got it wrong.
While other exit polls have predicted a simple majority for the LDF, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll for Kerala Assembly election has predicted a sweeping victory for the Left front. The exit poll has predicted the LDF to win 104-120 seats out of the total 140 seats. As per the poll, the UDF is expected to secure 20-36 seats and NDA may bag 0-2 seats. Other parties and independents are also expected to bag 0 to 2 seats in the state.
India Today-Axis My India conducted the exit poll surveys in all 140 constituencies, taking a sample size of 28,124 voters. India Today claims 91% accuracy in their surveys and that among the 47 surveys they have conducted since 2013, 43 have been accurate.
The incumbent LDF is expected to capture 71-77 seats, projected the CPI(M)-led front to return to power in the state. However, this will be a decline of 20-14 seats from what it had bagged in the 2016 election. On the other hand, the UDF is expected to win 62-68 seats, which is a significant jump from the number of seats it had won in 2016 (47 seats). The BJP is predicted to win zero to two seats.
"It is a straight-forward electoral battle between the LDF and UDF,” said C-Voter. “The ruling LDF is expected to retain Kerala and thus buck the trend of defeating the incumbent in every electoral cycle," the agency said about the projection.
The Republic-CNX Exit Poll for Kerala has projected a victory for the LDF with 72 to 80 seats. This would be a decline of 19-11 seats it had won in the 2016 election. The projection for the UDF, on the other hand, has predicted a jump in the number of seats, as it is likely to win 58-64 seats. The NDA is projected to win around 1-5 seats.
Party-wise, CPI(M) is expected to win 49-55 seats in the 2021 Assembly elections, a decline from its current 58 seats. Congress is projected to win nearly 10-14 seats, taking its total count to 32-36, while IUML is likely to win 13-17 seats. The BJP is projected to win four more seats whereas the.
The exit polls has projected a -0.98 swing of votes against the CPI(M)-led LDF. As far as UDF’s vote share is concerned, the Congress-led front is likely to see a -1.86 swing.
According to the exit poll survey by Politique Marquer, in Kerala, LDF is expected to bag 72-79 seats, closely followed by the UDF, which is projected to win 60-66 seats. While NDA is projected to win three seats, the independent candidate is expected to secure victory in one seat. The vote share prediction for LDF is 42%, while it is 39% for UDF and 18% for BJP. P-MARQ has projected a 54% winning probability for LDF and 38% for UDF. “In our anti-incumbency index, Pinarayi Vijayan’s government rates are low, at 5.1 out of 10. The primary opposition UDF’s confidence index is at 5.4 out of 10, lower than what is required for an opposition party to win elections. Pinarayi Vijayan’s personal popularity remains high compared to the leaders from UDF,” said P-MARQ.