The earliest records of factional fights in Palnadu region in Guntur district of Andhra Pradesh date back to the 12th century AD. While army generals were battling then, the region has now become the epicenter of the political showdown between Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy and his predecessor N Chandrababu Naidu of the TDP.
Atmakur is a faction-hit village in Palnadu where the opposition TDP alleges a reign of terror has been unleashed by the ruling YSRCP after it came to power in the April 2019 general elections. Naidu and his son Nara Lokesh were put under house-arrest at his Undavalli residence by police to foil his "Chalo Atmakur" call. The TDP ran a rehabilitation centre involving around 127 families who allegedly suffered violence at the hands of the YSRCP.
Not long after, former speaker of the Andhra Pradesh State Legislative Assembly Kodela Sivaprasada Rao, 72, who was adored by his fans as “Palnadu Tiger” killed himself. Kodela faces a case of theft involving furniture of the state Assembly and the TDP alleges this drove him to suicide. Around the same time, C Adinarayana Reddy, former minister and Naidu’s right hand man in Jagan’s home turf Kadapa district, told the media he intended to leave Naidu’s party and join the BJP in pursuit of a safe shelter. Adinarayana Reddy, accused of involvement in the murder of Jagan’s uncle YS Vivekananda Reddy, was feeling unsafe after the decisive victory of Jagan’s YSRCP. Adinarayana Reddy is not the only one. Hardly 20 days after Naidu losing the electoral battle, four of his party’s Rajya Sabha members gave him a rude shock by switching to the BJP.
This chronology of events suggests that Naidu, who left an indelible mark on Andhra Pradesh’ political landscape as CM and emerged as a national figure for four decades, had suddenly found himself on shaky ground. The feverish attempts by Naidu to keep his flock together by fighting his rivals head-on could be viewed from this context. With the BJP emerging as the next and natural choice for those in his party, one can decipher that "Chalo Atmakur" was not just against Jagan, but to also tell his political constituents that Naidu is still the saviour and they needn't look to the BJP.
The threat posed by BJP
After parting ways in 2018, the BJP and the TDP have had their daggers drawn and were out to finish each other in the elections. But strangely, the BJP has begun using the language of the TDP to attack Jagan. The BJP's accusations centre on Jagan and his 'vindictive politics', questioning the shifting of the capital from Amaravati and retenders for Polavaram irrigation project. But in a conscious effort to send a message that they are the opposition party to reckon with, BJP has encroached upon all of TDP's pet topics, leaving the TDP jostling for space.
In this backdrop, it is interesting to note that Union Minister of State for Home, G Kishan Reddy joined chorus with the TDP for a Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) probe into Kodela’s death. A similar protest call was given by the BJP Andhra Pradesh President Kanna Lakshminarayana to the violence-hit villages in Palnadu, which was firmly disallowed by the police.
Naidu, who encouraged defection of 23 YSRCP MLAs and even inducted four of them in his cabinet during his period, seems to have realised that the chickens have finally come home to roost. He is facing a poaching threat from the BJP, which is aimed at entering the opposition’s space by edging him out. Unlike his rival Jagan, Naidu has his vote bank sharing identical features with the BJP.
Jagan has his vote bank with Muslims, Christians, his Reddy caste group and Dalits which by and large tend to remain intact for him as these sections have no love for the BJP. But for Naidu’s party it is Kammas, an enterprising community by nature, Bramhins, Vysyas, Kshatriyas and Backward Classes that remain a major support base. After Narendra Modi became prime minister, many of these communities began to identify themselves with the BJP.
1998 midterm polls: A watershed in AP politics
Political analysts say radical change in social engineering in the politics of undivided Andhra Pradesh happened after mid-term Parliament elections held in 1998, and it points to the TDP’s vulnerability. When the election was held to constitute the 12th Lok Sabha after the collapse of the United Front government with the withdrawal of support by the Congress, the BJP suddenly became a force to be reckoned with on an alien soils with 18 percent vote share, making Naidu sit up and take notice. Naidu’s striking an alliance with the BJP in the subsequent mid-term election held in 1999 is attributed to his ingenuity to keep flock together.
A senior leader in the TDP wishing to be unquoted told TNM that facing the recent election without BJP’s company was one of the reasons for the Naidu’s debacle. “There is an impending need to build bridges with our natural ally so as to hold our fort firmly. Or else, the party may face existential issues as it witnessed in Telangana,” the leader commented.
But the BJP is understandably of the view that Naidu’s loss is its gain in the state. The post-election overtures from the BJP suggests that it is aiming to gain its foot-hold in the state with a two-pronged strategy — pursuing polarised agenda by targeting Jagan’s Christian background on the one hand and build social engineering by attracting the support base of the TDP on the other.