The Left is likely to sweep the northern districts of Kerala this assembly election, predicts Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey. The first phase of data was released from the survey done with a 27,000-voter sample size. It predicts that Manjeshwaram will be won by the BJP-led NDA. The poll further predicts the UDF candidate (AKM Ashraf of IUML) to come second in Manjeshwaram and the Left candidate (VV Rameshan of CPI (M)) to come third.
The poll states that the LDF will win two of the five seats in Kasaragod district while the UDF will take two, and BJP, one. According to the survey, the Left front is poised to win Kanhangad and Uduma; while the UDF is likely to win Kasaragod and Thrikkaripur. The contest in Thrikkaripur will likely be a tight race. BJP state president K Surendran is contesting from Manjeshwaram in Kasaragod.
The survey was conducted between February 15 and March 15. It predicts LDF’s victory in all seats in Kozhikode and Wayanad and predicts that the many of the Congress-led UDF’s sitting MLAs are set to in these districts.
According to the pre-poll survey, the LDF is poised to win 27 out of the combined 32 seats in Kasaragod, Kannur, Wayanad and Kozhikode districts. The survey also predicts a tight contest in four constituencies, namely Thrikkaripur in Kasaragod, Irikkur in Kannur, Kozhikode North and Koduvally.
Three phases of data from the survey are yet to be released and will predict probable winners for all 140 seats in the Kerala assembly. It will also give the likely state level vote share of the different fronts contesting this election.
In Kannur, the Left is poised to win nine out of the 11 assembly seats as the front has a clear dominance over its rivals in this district.
The UDF has an edge over the Left in two seats – Azhikode and Irikkur – while the BJP is likely to finish third in all seats except in Koothuparamba.
The Left is slated to sweep all three constituencies – Sultan Bathery, Mananthawady and Kalpetta – in Wayanad.
The Left is likely to win back Kuttiyadi seat from the IUML this year, the pre-poll survey predicts.
Nadapuram, Perambra, Balussery, Elathur, Koyilandy, Kunnamangalam, Thiruvamvady, Beypore and Koduvally are likely to go to the LDF. The survey predicts that the contest in Koduvally is going to be a tight one between the LDF and UDF.
The Left is also likely to win back Kozhikode South from the UDF and is predicted to have an edge in Kozhikode North this year