As the election results for the latest round of assembly polls in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala come out, Congress is going through a serious existential crisis, with just 5 states under its rule in India. The greater threat to the party is that the NDA is making its presence felt in states that were not in its reach a few years ago.
The Congress party has lost one state after another after the 16th Lok Sabha election. With 10 states and Delhi that went to polls since May 2014, NDA has formed the government in 6 states, while Congress did not get to win even one. The bigger states are all ruled either by the BJP or other regional parties, and the Congress is in power in only one, Karnataka, which is going to the polls in 2018. Here too, the anti-incumbency factor is likely to work against it.
One of the biggest losses for the Congress after the 2014 elections was Maharashtra, where UPA had formed government for over 15 years. Congress lost almost half number of seats it won in 2009 assembly elections.
Until 2018, Congress would be left with just 5 states - Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya and Mizoram. They are also sharing power in Uttarakhand.
Among the states that went to polls, the biggest loss for Congress is Assam, where Tarun Gogoi has served three terms as CM. Assam is also a crucial state as it is considered a gateway for parties to enter the north-east states.
It appears Congress’ strategy of having a bipolar arrangement- in West Bengal with CPI (M) and against the CPI (M) in Kerala- could have reduced the prospects of the party winning in both the states.
In Kerala, Congress-UDF fought a high-stakes battle with scandal-hit Oommen Chandy at the helm.The entry of the BJP, which never had a presence in Kerala, is more of a nightmare for both UDF and LDF. Looks like BJP, which aligned with outfits like SNDP, has managed to eat into the vote share of UDF.
The trends reflect that BJP has managed closed second in many Congress and Left bastions in Kerala.
Trinamool Congress is set to win in West Bengal where Congress is tied up with CPI-M.
On the other hand, in Tamil Nadu, with a vote base of 6.5 percent, Congress is heavily dependent on DMK.
However, Puducherry, where Congress has a strong-hold might be a small consolation.
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