“History repeats itself, first as a tragedy and second as a farce,” Karl Marx said, referring to the two successive French revolutions in the late 18th century. He was commenting on the historical trajectories of those revolutions contrary to the promise they offered. The recent GenZ-led uprising in Nepal and its earlier theatre in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka as well as the Arab Spring a decade before needs to be understood with this historical wisdom. Because it is replete with great lessons for political parties of every shade, both across the world and in India. More so in Nepal, because it was the corrupt Communist government that was under attack by the furious and hopeless mobs.
The present youth revolt against the corrupt regime was preceded by the Sri Lankan Aragalaya (struggle) in 2022 against authoritarian, anti-people, chauvinist, pro-corporate regimes. This was followed by the rebellion against the autocratic Sheikh Hasina regime in Bangladesh in 2024.
Whatever the immediate triggers may have been, at a deeper level these uprisings are rebellions against the authoritarian and corporate-capitalist systems that exploit people under the mask of democracy.
A decade ago, similar uprisings swept across the Arab world. Beginning in Tunisia in 2011, then shaking Egypt, Bahrain, and Libya, those too — despite immediate causes — were led by workers, peasants, and youth, against the extreme exploitation carried out in the name of Islam by pro-American imperialist capitalist regimes.
But these events – known as the Arab Spring – did not bring the expected season of renewal. Though the uprisings were born out of struggles against capitalist and semi-feudal exploitation, they did not evolve into revolutions that destroyed those systems to create people-oriented and egalitarian orders.
As a result, new local agents backed by the US came to power and continued the same old religious authoritarian-capitalist systems.
Similar signs are now evident in South Asia in the aftermath of the uprisings of the past three years.
Disillusionment and rebellion in Nepal
In Nepal, popular anger erupted against all political parties. Whether the many Communist parties or the Nepali Congress, whoever came to power, they competed only in corruption.
In fact, the country has had three important upheavals since 1950. The first one was for parliamentary democracy, which the monarchy dismantled in 1962 and introduced the party-less panchayat system. This was opposed through a big mass movement in the 1990s, which resulted in a multi-party constitutional monarchy. Since 1996, the country witnessed a huge armed rebellion led by the Maoists till 2006, which resulted in the collapse of the monarchy and the reorganisation of Nepal into a constitutional secular democratic republic with socialist aspirations. The Maoists surrendered arms and joined the electoral democratic process.
A new constitution was drafted in 2015, which made Nepal a federal democratic republic with seven administrative units.
Disillusioned with the Congress and the Communist parties, the Nepali people pinned hopes on the Maoists. But the former revolutionaries too fell into the same corrupt, opportunistic politics, disillusioning the people further.
From 2008 to the present, Maoists, Congress, and Communists have engaged only in opportunistic alliances to hold on to power, never making efforts to create a people-friendly or egalitarian system. The political instability is reflected in the fact that between 2008-2024, more than 13 governments have changed with a permutation and combination of the three major mainstream parties, namely Nepali Congress led by Sher Bahadur Debua, Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) led by the recently ousted Prime Minister KP Oli, and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) led by Prachanda.
In frustration, in the 2022 elections, people even gave 10% of their votes to the new and monarchist-leaning Rastriya Prajatantra Party and the Rastriya Swatantra Party, which is led by Rabi Lamichhane. Another name that is cropping up is Balendra Shah, the Mayor of Kathmandu, who does not have a party. Both leaders are close to India’s Modi government, though occasionally taking anti-India stances.
The question remains: will the system change?
Though the immediate reasons for the September 8th uprising in Nepal is identified as the unilateral ban on 26 social media platforms, there are structural and deeper reasons for this spark turning into prairie fire.
Take, for example, the social media ban itself. These platforms are the main means of communication between more than six millions Nepalis working outside the country and also the channel for their remittances, which constitute 33% of Nepal’s GDP.
The unemployment in Nepal is the highest in the world, hovering around 22% for the youth age group. It is estimated that every day more than 3,000 youth leave the country in search of livelihood. In 2024 alone, the Nepali government provided around 9 lakh out-of-country work permits. Tourism is the main source of industry, which also is rid with infrastructural deficiencies. Chinese-funded and some other new infrastructural projects are the only other source of employment. It is estimated that more than 52% of Nepalis are below the poverty line.
Along with this, the recent IMF conditionalities have compelled Nepal to withdraw whatever minimal welfarist activities it was undertaking and compelled it to promote a private corporate lead model, which has in turn resulted in inflation. This has made the life of Nepali people, especially the youth, unbearable. As if rubbing salt on the wound was the opulent lifestyle of the nepo-kids and the blatant corruption of all the mainstream parties. All this contributed to the uprising against the whole system, resulting in setting fire to the parliament, courts, and houses of ministers. Though regrettable, such mob violence is also a measure of the cruelty of ruling-class exploitation and the depth of people’s despair.
The army has now entered the streets, and the violence may subside. While the President is silent, the Army chief is taking the initiative to negotiate with GenZ and other stakeholders. For the present, the three mainstream parties are out of contention, and new leaders like Balendra Shah or retired Chief Justice Sushila Karki or the Electricity man Kulman Ghising – who supposedly has an impeccable record – might assume leadership of the interim government.
But will these cosmetic changes in the administration bring pro-people change in the political economy of Nepal? Can Nepal truly be really democratised if the dependent capitalist economy and entrenched feudal socio-economic structures remain unchanged?
Leave alone GenZ, even the new political forces like Balendra or RSP or the non-corrupt bureaucrats are all wedded to the same IMF-led neo-liberal corporate capitalist economy. Along with this, the pro-monarchist forces have also become active.
For now, the youth protesting on the streets are not focused on these deeper issues. No mass organisation is advancing a socialist, people-centered alternative. The Communists and Maoists, who once mobilised people under such slogans, have proven themselves just as corrupt.
Meanwhile, wedged as it is between the two giants, China and India, Nepal cannot escape their influence.
At rallies calling for a return to monarchy, photos of Yogi Adityanath, the hardline Hindutva Chief Minister of the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, were displayed. On the other hand, anti-monarchist forces strongly oppose India.
China, too, has made massive investments in Nepal, including in military modernisation and defence. Such projects themselves become sources of large-scale corruption, and so Chinese involvement will persist in post-uprising Nepal.
At the same time, hundreds of American-funded NGOs work in Nepal, many of which have been active in this uprising seeking to reduce Chinese influence.
Thus, while the immediate cause of Nepal’s explosion was anger against the corrupt ruling classes, the shaping of Nepal’s future will inevitably face both internal and external challenges.
Nepal following Sri Lanka and Bangladesh?
After the 2022 people’s uprising in Sri Lanka, even though a party with socialist ideals came to power, there has been no qualitative change in the government’s relationship with international capitalists and the entrenched local ruling classes. Hence, the Sri Lankan people have seen no real sign of relief.
In Bangladesh, the people who took up the reins after the August 2024 revolution were preoccupied with taking revenge on their predecessors, portraying vengeance as revolution. At the same time, they compromised with the very crony capitalist system and its international patrons that had created unemployment and poverty, the very causes of the uprising.
Even in Nepal, already the manufactured dissension in the ranks of the leadership of the rebellions is showing its signs in choosing the interim government.
Thus post-rebellion Nepal, like in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, will likely travel a path of more disillusionments and rebellions.
A lesson for India
Amid all this, Indian citizens must demand that the Modi government refrain from interfering like a ‘big brother’ in Nepal’s internal matters.
Most importantly, India must learn a crucial lesson from the uprising in its neighbouring nation. Wherever uprisings erupt against the corruption of ruling classes, it means that the citizens are alive and awake and that democracy is still breathing. But in countries where people repeatedly re-elect the same corrupt-communal cliques, blind devotees outnumber conscious citizens. In such countries, instead of democracy, fascism takes root.
Shivasundar is an activist and freelance journalist. Views expressed are the author’s own.