Let Me Explain is in Kerala
Kerala doesn’t usually do surprises.
For decades, governments here have followed a rhythm.
Five years this side, five years that side. A kind of political muscle memory.
But in 2021, that pattern broke.
CPI(M)’s Pinarayi Vijayan came back to power. And now, in 2026, he’s asking for something Kerala has never done before, a third consecutive term.
At the same time, the Indian National Congress says this is its best chance in years. The Bharatiya Janata Party is trying to push deeper into the state.
We think this election is about five big questions.
So join me and Lakshmi Priya as we try to look at these questions.
Or as that famous dialogue goes, it's time for thathvikamaya oru avalokanam.
1: Pinarayi and the anti-incumbency question
First, to point out the obvious, this election is really about one man. Pinarayi Vijayan.
Over the past decade, governance in Kerala has become deeply tied to him. His decisions, his style, and his image as a strong administrator.
For many people, that still works. They remember the floods, COVID, crisis management. There’s a sense of stability.
But there are also signs of fatigue.
Recent Lok Sabha and local body elections didn’t go the Left’s way.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Left won just one seat. In the local body polls too, the UDF had a clear edge. And if you break down those Lok Sabha results further, the Congress-led alliance was ahead in over 100 of Kerala’s 140 Assembly segments.
So on paper, that looks like strong anti-incumbency.
But Kerala has done this before — voted one way nationally, another way in Assembly elections.
So the question is simple, but not easy. Is Kerala ready to continue with the same leadership? Or is there quiet anti-incumbency building up? Let’s find out what people are saying on the ground.
2: The power of the local MLA
In Kerala, elections aren’t just fought at the top. They’re often decided locally.
The MLA matters, a lot.
Take a place like Nemom, for example. You have a strong local Left leader with an existing base like V Shivankutty, going up against a high-profile BJP candidate, in fact their party president, like Rajiv Chandrasekhar, who is trying to position himself as a development face.
Or look at Vattiyoorkavu, where sitting MLA VK Prasanth’s personal popularity — that “boy next-door image” — is seen as a real advantage, regardless of the larger political mood.
And that creates an interesting contradiction.
You might be unhappy with the government, but still vote for your local MLA. Or the other way around.
In fact, many voters say they’re choosing based on performance and familiarity, not just party lines. Which means even in a strong anti-incumbency moment, results can be uneven– seat by seat, candidate by candidate.
3: The Congress’s momentum vs effectiveness
We also need to talk about the opposition. Because if there is anti-incumbency, the real question is, who converts it into votes?
The Congress has momentum.
It won 18 out of 20 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It has better funding, better campaigns. It also has a stronger leadership face now in VD Satheesan, who has taken a more aggressive line against the LDF government.
Compared to a few years ago, the Congress is definitely more visible and more confrontational.
But visibility doesn’t always mean effectiveness.
A lot of its recent gains are being seen as anti-LDF votes, and not necessarily a full endorsement of the Congress itself.
And there’s another question here.
Has the Congress actually functioned as a strong opposition on the ground? Has it been able to consistently hold the government accountable?
Or has it struggled to sustain pressure beyond moments?
Because even now, it faces familiar challenges, it often struggles to act like one party.
We have seen delays in candidate selection, public disagreements, and leaders competing for seats.
Unlike the CPI(M), which is tightly organised, the Congress is more like a collection of strong leaders.
And in a close election, that difference matters.
So while the opportunity is clearly there, the question is –can the Congress not just benefit from dissatisfaction, but actually convert it into votes and then power?
4: BJP’s strategic growth
Now let’s consider the third player here– the BJP.
Obviously, the BJP is still not a frontrunner here. But it’s no longer irrelevant either.
What’s interesting is how it’s approaching Kerala.
Instead of trying to win everywhere, the BJP is focusing on a handful of constituencies — places like Nemom, Palakkad, and Manjeshwaram — places where it has consistently come second, or built a base.
The idea is simple– convert presence into power. Even winning three to five seats could make it a decisive player.
But the strategy is also layered.
Yes, publicly, the campaign talks about development, infrastructure, investment, “Viksit Kerala.”
At the same time, there’s quieter outreach happening through networks linked to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh with community meetings, door-to-door conversations, and local mobilisation that often doesn’t make headlines.
In places like Nemom, this groundwork has been happening for months, bringing together different Hindu community groups, building a base slowly.
And then there’s the messaging that it is adopting.
At times, the BJP frames Kerala itself as failing, both economically, socially.
But the question is: does that work here? Or does it alienate voters who take pride in the state’s model?
5: Welfare, development, and voter expectations
And finally, what voters actually care about. Because beneath all this — leadership, parties, strategy — there’s a deeper shift happening.
Kerala has long been built on welfare. Pensions, public healthcare, education, social security, and all that receive a lot of importance.
And a large group — government employees, pensioners — depend on this system. They vote in high numbers, and they influence others.
That’s why every party is promising more welfare. The Left increased pensions from Rs 1,600 to Rs 2,000. The Congress is promising Rs 3,000. The BJP is also making similar promises.
No one is opposing welfare, they’re competing over it. But expectations have changed.
Today’s voters, especially the middle class, want more than stability. They want jobs, investment, and opportunities.
Many young people are planning their lives outside Kerala— not just in other Indian states or the Gulf anymore, as the stereotype goes, but in places like Canada or Europe, looking for permanent futures
So many believe that Kerala is good at welfare for its people but not for those who aspire more.
So this election is also about a tension: Security versus mobility. Welfare versus aspiration.
So when you put it all together, this election isn’t simple. There doesn’t seem to be a single wave.
Instead, there are multiple small shifts — a leader facing both trust and fatigue, voters balancing local and state choices, an opposition with momentum but internal cracks, a BJP trying to grow quietly, seat by seat, and a society asking what comes after stability.
And in Kerala, where margins are often thin, that’s enough to make this election wide open. Because this isn’t just about who forms the next government. It’s about what Kerala wants next.
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Produced by Megha Mukundan, script by Lakshmi Priya, Camera by Megha Mukundan, Edit by Nikhil Sekhar ET