In 2023, PM Modi called Donald Trump his special friend.
Two years on, 'that friendship' is being tested and it may be costing Indians jobs, visas and their livelihoods
But when Trump assumed office, that promise didn't hold
Many in India celebrated the win. The belief was simple, a right wing govt in Washington would naturally align with the one in Delhi.
Media coverage amplified that idea, from Jaishankar's seat at the inauguration, to Modi's rapport with Trump, all framed as signs of a strong bond.
Foreign policy cannot hinge on personal rapport, neither should it believe that charm and friendship can outwit America’s protectionist instincts.
But today, tariffs bite harder, visas sting, and the so-called “strategic partnership” looks shakier than ever. Ordinary Indians are now paying the price.
So let’s unpack this: how India misread Trump, how tariffs and H-1B visas are hitting Indians, what we can expect in the coming months, and what Modi could have done differently.
Let me explain.
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Remember “Howdy, Modi”? The handshakes, the stadium rallies, the optics of two strongmen sharing the global stage.
It looked like India had finally cracked the US code. Modi and Trump were besties on the world stage, bromance goals.
But fast forward to 2025, and that optimism has turned bitter
India is now learning the hard way, that “personal chemistry” isn’t the same as foreign policy.
When Trump first entered office, Delhi saw opportunity: a US president skeptical of China, bullish on business, who loved pageantry and handshakes.
But what Modi’s government didn’t account for was that Trump’s “Make America Great Again” or MAGA politics prioritises one thing above all else — domestic advantage.
For MAGA Trump, friendship means nothing if it doesn’t serve his base.
On the other hand, Modi’s strategy leaned too much on the theatre of friendship
When American politics demanded that Trump shows toughness on trade and immigration, India was not spared. Friendship was no shield.
Tariffs were the first blow. In mid-2025, Trump slapped a sweeping 25% duty on Indian goods. Barely weeks later, that figure doubled.
Today, 50% tariffs apply to most categories of exports — putting India on par with Brazil for the highest US trade duties.
Consider the scale: India exports around $66 billion worth of goods every year to the U.S. By some estimates, nearly 87 percent of that trade is now exposed to punitive tariffs.
Jewellery worth $32 billion, textiles employing 45 million workers, leather clusters, shrimp, auto parts — all hit with duties up to 50–60%.
Competitors like Bangladesh and Vietnam get easier access, while Indian exporters are priced out.
Beyond the numbers, the psychological hit is huge. The rupee weakens, export orders dry up, and fears of a widening current account deficit grow louder.
And then came Trump’s second weapon: the H-1B visa.
And this came just days after supporters of the Modi government wanted us to believe that all was well again. Because of this.
But Trump announced massive fees for H1B visas.
Introduced in 1990, the H-1B allowed U.S. companies to hire skilled foreign workers if they couldn’t find enough locally. Over time, Indians came to dominate the program.
In 2024, they received 71 percent of approvals, far ahead of the Chinese at 12 percent. Firms like TCS, Infosys, Wipro, and Cognizant collectively secured over 350,000 visas between 2009 and 2025.
This wasn’t just about jobs — the H-1B became the backbone of India’s IT services model.
Young engineers cycled into U.S. firms, gained experience, sent remittances home, and helped build India’s global tech reputation. For countless families, the H-1B was more than a visa, it was the ticket to the American dream.
And now? Trump has rewritten the rules overnight.
A $100,000 fee applies to all new petitions after September 21, 2025.
For smaller firms, the fee is prohibitive. Even large Indian IT companies must rethink U.S. hiring strategies. Unlike tariffs, which target goods, this targets people, striking at ambition, mobility, and the very imagination of a generation.
Even giants like Amazon face staggering costs. Ten thousand visas alone could total $1 billion, signaling a shift in the flow of Indian talent to the U.S.
So how did India end up here?
Mistake one: placing too much weight on personal diplomacy. Flattery doesn’t override Trump’s domestic agenda.
Mistake two: over-reliance on the US market. If India had diversified trade earlier with the EU, ASEAN, and Africa, the tariff shock wouldn’t hurt this much.
Mistake three: reacting too late. Trump’s tariff rhetoric was never subtle. India could have offered limited concessions upfront to blunt the blow.
Mistake four: ignoring H-1B fragility. Instead of preparing to keep talent at home — through better universities, venture capital, startup incentives — India bet on a pipeline it didn’t control.
The result is a moment of deep vulnerability. India is reacting from weakness, not negotiating from strength.
Trump has every incentive to escalate. He may extend the 50 percent tariff to more categories or threaten extreme hikes unless India makes concessions. India does not have the leverage that China does.
India’s IT sector faces a double whammy, the H-1B shock and the proposed HIRE Act, which could slap a 25 percent tax on payments for U.S. firms outsourcing to foreign companies.
So what can India do now?
Firstly, negotiate smartly. Offer selective tariff cuts in exchange for breathing room — but no desperate giveaways.
Second, diversify trade. Close deals with the EU and UK, deepen ties with ASEAN, Africa, Latin America.
Third, invest at home. Strengthen education, research, and startups to keep talent in India.
Fourth, use coalitions. The WTO provides legal tools, and a coalition approach could make Trump think twice about isolating India
The lesson is not just about one leader or one administration. It is about strategy. The coming months will test whether New Delhi can shift course from reactive diplomacy to strategic resilience.
One thing is certain, India cannot afford to misread him again.
But that said, both Modi and Trump are mercurial leaders and how they change their moves cannot fully be anticipated.
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