The recently released caste census data in Telangana has sparked controversy and concern, particularly regarding the declining reported percentage of the Backward Classes (BCs). The discrepancies between past estimates and the current figures suggest a possible attempt to manipulate the numbers, raising questions about the methodology and intent behind the census.
The Telangana caste census states that BCs now constitute 46.25% of the population. However, in the past, the Samagra Kutumbha Survey (also known as the Comprehensive Household Survey or CHS) conducted by the Telangana government had reported the BC population as 52%. This sudden decline in BC numbers, despite overall population growth, raises concerns about possible undercounting. At the same time, the Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) populations have increased over the past decade. According to the 2011 Census, the SC population was 15.45%, which has now risen to 17.43%—an increase of approximately 2%. Similarly, the ST population has grown from 9.08% in 2011 to 10.45% today. The numbers suggest a deliberate attempt to suppress BC figures.
The Telangana caste census, conducted over 50 days in late 2024, surveyed 96.9% of households, covering 3.54 crore individuals. Here’s the community-wise breakdown:
> Backward Classes (BCs):
Non-Muslim BCs: 1,64,09,179 (46.25%)
Muslim BCs: 35,76,588 (10.08%)
Total BC Population: 56.33% (including Hindu, Muslim, and Christian converts from SCs)
> Scheduled Castes (SCs): 61,84,319 (17.43%)
> Scheduled Tribes (STs): 37,05,929 (10.45%)
> Muslims (Total): 44,57,012 (12.56%)
OC Muslims: 8,80,424 (2.48%)
> Other Open Categories (OCs): 44,21,115 (13.31%)
Total OC Population: 15.79%
Telangana’s total population in 2011 was 3,50,03,674 and in 2014, the total population of the CHS was 3,63,95,796. Given the expected population decadal growth rate of 10-12%, the current population should be around 4.1 to 4.2 crore. However, the caste survey has recorded only 3.54 crore. This raises a few questions: What happened to the missing people? Were they excluded due to enumeration errors? Are they migrants living abroad who were not counted properly? Were certain sections of society deliberately left out of the survey?
A transparent explanation is required to address these gaps, as even a small undercount can have serious implications for resource allocation, reservations, and political representation.
The Bihar state also conducted the caste survey in 2023 and revealed that the Backward Classes population had increased to 63.13% from 52% in the 1931 Census. Similarly, the SC population in Bihar increased to 19.65%. Such similar trends might be expected in Telangana as well.
According to BC organisations, the Hindu BC population now stands at around 55-60%. The BC Muslim population, meanwhile, has been steadily increasing, although not significantly. However, the overall Muslim population has declined from 12.68% in 2011 to 12.56% in this census. The lack of clarity on separate BC figures weakens their ability to demand accurate representation and policy benefits.
The biggest surprise in the Telangana caste census is the sudden increase in the Open Category (OC) population. CHS estimates had placed the OC population below 10%, but the latest census reports it as 15.79%. This sharp rise in OC numbers raises suspicions of data manipulation, possibly to justify the Economically Weaker Section (EWS) reservations.
The census data is not just about numbers—it has direct consequences on reservations, government schemes, and political representation. By undercounting BCs, their rightful share in governance and welfare policies can be systematically reduced. The government must ensure that no community is marginalised through statistical manipulation. There are three important questions that are being asked: (1) Why is the decadal population growth not reflected in the Telangana Caste Survey 2025? (2) Why has the BC population decreased compared to the CHS 2023? (3) Why is there no significant increase in the Muslim population?
The Telangana government must disclose the complete methodology used for enumeration to ensure transparency. Social organisations, experts, and civil society groups should be allowed to review and audit the census process. BCs must be enumerated separately rather than being merged with minorities to prevent dilution of their representation. The government must justify the sudden rise in OC numbers with proper data and reasoning. Additionally, the state must account for the surveying of the missing people to ensure a fair and accurate population count.
The Telangana caste census should be a tool for empowerment, not exclusion. If the numbers are manipulated, it will directly impact BCs' political power, educational opportunities, and economic rights. The BC community must unite and demand a fair, transparent, and accountable census process. Any attempt at data manipulation which undermines the rights of BCs must be rejected. It is time for a strong movement to ensure that the true strength of BCs in Telangana is recognised and upheld.
Kiran Kumar Gowd is a PhD research scholar at the Department of Political Science at the University of Hyderabad. He is also the national president of the All India OBC Students Association. Views expressed are the author’s own.