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A low-pressure area over the Strait of Malacca and the adjoining South Andaman Sea is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm over the southeast Bay of Bengal in the next 48 hours, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
“A low-pressure area is likely to form over Comorin and adjoining areas of the southwest Bay of Bengal and Sri Lanka around November 25,” the IMD stated, citing the extreme weather conditions building over Tamil Nadu and neighbouring regions.
The IMD has predicted isolated very heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu on November 23; over Kerala and Mahe on November 23 and 24; and across the Andaman & Nicobar Islands from November 24 to 26.
According to the latest bulletin, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands from November 23 to 28. Heavy rainfall is also likely in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Mahe from November 23 to 25; in Lakshadweep, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Yanam on November 23 and 24; and in Rayalaseema on November 23.
The Bay of Bengal frequently generates intense cyclones during September and October. In late October, one such system struck multiple states, resulting in two deaths and damaging more than 80,000 hectares of crops.
The name ‘Senyar’ will be assigned if the current system intensifies into a cyclonic storm. As per IMD norms, a cyclone is named only when a deep depression strengthens into a cyclonic storm. ‘Senyar’— meaning “Lion”— is the next name in the naming list, contributed by the United Arab Emirates, one of the 13 member nations responsible for naming cyclones in the North Indian Ocean.
A fishermen’s warning has been issued, advising them not to venture into the sea along and off the Kerala coast, Lakshadweep, and the Comorin region from November 23 to 25. Similar warnings apply to the Gulf of Mannar, Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts, the Andaman Sea, and parts of the central Bay of Bengal from November 23 to 28. Authorities have also urged residents along India’s east coast to monitor official advisories.
The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are expected to face the earliest impact, with rainfall increasing through the weekend. The Nicobar Islands, in particular, are likely to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall (105–204 mm in 24 hours) on November 24 and 25 as the system passes nearby. Wind speeds are forecast between 35–45 km/h, with gusts up to 55 km/h on Sunday, strengthening to around 65 km/h on November 25.
The IMD has issued an orange warning for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds may affect both coastal and interior regions of Tamil Nadu. The orange alert remains in place for the island groups until November 26.
Schools across Tamil Nadu have also declared holidays due to the persistent heavy rainfall. Districts that have announced closures include Ramanathapuram, Kallakurichi, Thoothukudi, Mayiladuthurai, Thanjavur, Pudukottai, Trichy, Nagapattinam, Sivagangai, and Virudhunagar.