World Population Day has, over the years, evolved from being a reminder about population trends to a reaffirmation of reproductive rights, informed choice and human dignity.
This year's theme, "Realising the hopes and aspirations of young people: today and for the future", reinforces that evolution. It shifts the focus from demographic targets to the hopes, aspirations and opportunities of young people.
Ironically, in India, the public discourse appears to be moving in the opposite direction. Calls from some quarters for larger families and discussions around a three-child norm have once again shifted attention to fertility.
The renewed interest in larger families is not driven solely by demographic concerns. It is unfolding against the backdrop of the proposed delimitation of parliamentary constituencies and the continuing debate over the relationship between population, political representation and the distribution of public resources.
States that successfully reduced fertility through investments in education, healthcare and voluntary family planning fear that they may be disadvantaged if population becomes the principal determinant of parliamentary representation and fiscal allocations. Whether these apprehensions ultimately prove justified or not, they have reopened a debate that many believed India had moved beyond.
But if political representation and resource allocation are the issues, should the answer be to encourage more births? Surely, India's answer to political arithmetics cannot be demographic arithmetics.
A country's people are not merely workers and producers. They are also the drivers of economic growth. Every young person who is educated, healthy and productively employed contributes to the economy not only as a worker or producer but also as a consumer. Income creates purchasing power. Purchasing power generates demand. Demand stimulates production. Production creates employment and higher incomes. It is a virtuous cycle that expands markets, strengthens the economy and improves the quality of life.
Conversely, when millions of young people remain inadequately educated, unemployed or underemployed, the cycle breaks down. They neither realise their own potential nor contribute fully to the economy. India's challenge, therefore, is not to increase the number of people entering this cycle but to ensure that those already in it have the education, skills, health and opportunities to participate meaningfully.
Without corresponding investments in education, skills, healthcare and employment, a larger population will not automatically translate into a demographic dividend. Instead, it could deepen unemployment, widen inequalities and fuel the frustration of rising aspirations among a generation of young Indians who are better exposed, more aware and more ambitious than any before them.
The real people dividend lies not in adding to our numbers but in investing in our people.
Over three decades of working on issues of population, gender and development have taught me one enduring lesson. Sustainable development is never achieved by persuading people to have more children or fewer children. It is achieved when every child is wanted, every pregnancy is safe, every girl completes her education, every young person acquires skills and every citizen has the opportunity to contribute productively to society.
There is another reason why the current debate deserves careful reflection.
India's family planning programme has evolved from one driven by demographic targets to one rooted in informed choice and reproductive rights. It recognised that decisions about childbearing belong to individuals and couples, not to governments. It would be unfortunate to reverse decades of advocacy for a rights-based approach to reproductive health for short-term political gains.
The fact is that whether public policy seeks fewer children or more children, the burden almost invariably falls on women. Their reproductive choices get compromised, while men often exercise the choice in ways that maximise the benefits of incentives. We have seen this before, when poor women were herded into sterilisation camps for small monetary rewards and other inducements, often with little regard for informed consent, safety or dignity. Women once again risk becoming tools of public policy rather than autonomous individuals making personal decisions about their own bodies and lives. That would represent a significant step backwards.
Equally important are the aspirations of today's young people. They are marrying later, pursuing higher education, seeking stable careers and financial security, and aspiring to give their children the best opportunities they can afford. Many choose to have smaller families not because they reject parenthood, but because they want to invest more in each child.
Can governments influence such deeply personal decisions through incentives or appeals? Perhaps at the margins. But can incentives overcome the realities of rising housing costs, insecure employment, expensive education, inadequate childcare and concerns about the future?
Political challenges require political solutions. They should not be addressed by turning reproductive choices into instruments of public policy.
On this World Population Day, the real question before India is not whether we need more people or fewer people. It is whether we are willing to invest in the people we already have.
Sharada AL is the Director of Population First, a non-profit organisation focused on population and gender issues. She is the founder of Laadli, a premier advocacy initiative and media campaign designed to promote gender sensitivity in journalism and advertising.
Views expressed are the author's own.