Kunal Shankar| The News Minute| November 10, 2014| 6.00 pm ISTThe timing is perfect, but the reasons are suspect. Former Union Shipping Minister and a Tamil Nadu Congress heavy-weight G.K. Vasan has chosen to depart from the parent party when the latter's fortunes is at its lowest ever in the state. The fact is, the Indian National Congress' future in Tamil Nadu, and that of the new break-away group remains only of academic interest or political intrigue. Congress' decline in the state began almost 50 years ago when its leading light from Tamil Nadu and India's first Governor General C. Rajagopalachari, or Rajaji as we know him broke from it to form the right-of-centre Swatantra Party in 1959. This coupled with the coming of age of the anti-Hindi protests movement led to a stunning victory of India's first powerful umbrella alliance led by C.N. Annadurai through the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in February 1967. Never since has the Congress been able to resurrected itself.The coalition consisted of Rajaji's Swatantra Party. It was a party mainly made up of family members of the erstwhile princely states. They advocated economic conservatism, criticising Nehru's 'Leftist' approach. Then there was the newly formed Communist Party of India (Marxist) founded in November 1964. The Communists had a massive sway over state politics. The leading figure in the CPM then was the legendary trade unionist and the state's first opposition leader - P. Ramamurti. There was also the influential Tamil Arasu Kazhagam led by M.P. Sivagnanam; and the DMK that had made steady gains since its first electoral foray in 1957. None of these leaders under-estimated the influence and reach of the Congress. A single-minded agenda to defeat the incumbent brought them together despite their widely divergent political views. The Congress led by the popular Chief Minister Bhaktavatsalam had a formidable former foe - the CPI by his side.But the Congress did not fare badly then. It polled 41.52 percent of the votes cast, almost a percentage point more than the DMK, which garnered 40.82 percent. But the DMK won 138 of the 173 seats contested of the total 234, while the Congress won only 49. Anna's DMK formed a government on its own. Clearly, the alliance was a political master-stroke. G.K. Vasan is attempting to get into the ring at what appears to be a similar juncture in Tamil Nadu politics. Right now, the state's political crisis has not occurred because of a social churning. It is due to the conviction of its former Chief Minister and chief of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam , J. Jayalalithaa under corruption charges and the emerging lack lustre leadership of both the Dravida parties. Quite similar to what the situation was in 1996, when Vasan's father G.K. Moopanar formed the Tamil Manila Congress.Sounding confident, the outgoing Tamil Nadu Congress Committee President Gnanadesikan says, "Why not (sic) you think that the new outfit can by itself win the people's mandate?" He went on to say that "had G.K. Moopanar decided to go it alone (in 1997), we would have won all the seats, because if you compare the DMK with TMC, TMC won all parliamentary seats that it contested (20 seats) and all but one Assembly seats contested (39 out of 40 seats), therefore DMK gained at the expense of TMC."History refutes Gnanadesikan's assessment. If in 1996 the party debuted exceedingly well in the Parliamentary elections, in 1998 it suffered a major loss. TMC's strength in Parliament was reduced to three seats, and the following year to zero. Those were the tumultuous years of the first BJP-led NDA rule, intervening with the V.P. Singh and Chandrashekar governments. The TMC regained some prominence in 2001 only by defeating its own purpose, that is by allying with the AIADMK. Moopanar had walked out of the Congress only two years earlier on the High Command's decision to forge an alliance with Jayalalithaa. The TMC won 23 seats in the Legislative Assembly as part of an ADMK-led alliance that won majority. O. Panneerselvam was sworn in as Chief Minister for the first time as Jayalalithaa had been convicted under corruption charges by a trial court and faced a five-year prison term for allegedly buying state-owned land held under the Tamil Nadu Small Industries Corporation (TANSI) for personal use at a highly under-valued rate. The Supreme Court overturned the conviction and Jayalalithaa once again assumed office in 2002, the same year Vasan decided to merge his father's party back with the Congress.Pundits say Vasan lacks the charisma or the pull of his father, and that it would be difficult to view the break-away faction as anything else but that. Moreover, the recent statement on greater functional 'autonomy' for the state Congress unit by former Finance Minister's son Karti is being viewed as a feud between the Vasan faction and the former over control of the party apparatus. This could make it doubly difficult for Vasan to gain legitimacy. Political analyst and writer Gnani Sankaran says, " Karti Chidambaram and Chidambaram know that they can't go with Vasan and they also know they can't go it alone, that they have to be part of the Congress and (EVKS) Elangovan has already been given the leadership (of the state). So they want to assert their position it the party. Nothing more to it."The assessment holds some water. If the Congress is reeling under corruption allegations and anti-incumbency, so is its long-time ally, the DMK. And not since the 1998 Coimbatore blasts has the BJP been able to win even a single seat in Tamil Nadu. As for the AIADMK, the price check on everyday consumables through the Amma canteens, pharmacies, mini buses and departmental stores have gained it some rich dividends. But corruption charges and Jayalalithaa's conviction have come back to haunt the party which has no second rung leadership. Gnanadesikan rubbishes the possibility of Vasan's party being part of the anti-AIADMK grand alliance that the former Deputy Chief Minister and DMK's heir apparent M.K. Stalin is attempting to forge. He says, "there was speculation of an alliance in the media when Stalin met (PMK's) Anbumani Ramadoss at his daughter's wedding. The next day all speculation collapsed." For the Congress, the split could not have been more ill-timed. Polling the lowest vote share ever in Tamil Nadu (less than 5 percent)in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, and faced with corruption allegations in the 2G and coal scams, it is unlikely to make good its loss anytime soon. For a state unit of a national party that called the shots in Delhi for decades, it is a reality that is hard to stomach. And the split for now, is only being viewed as symptomatic of the confusion within on the future course of the party.