Almost a year before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the NDTV’s Mood of the Nation Survey said the Congress was set to lose badly, and nobody seemed to care. Eventually the party had to pay a heavy price. And with it the nation too, you might add, if you cherish secularism.
The same thing could be said of the forthcoming assembly elections in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Keralam and the Union Territory of Puducherry. It could be 1–4 against the Congress, and the momentum could see Narendra Modi return to power for an unprecedented fourth term in 2029, with incalculable consequences for the country.
Of the four states, it is Assam’s verdict that should prove more ominous than most. Will the ever-brash Himanta Biswas Sarma win the BJP a hat-trick despite serious corruption allegations against him?
Rahul Gandhi recently branded him the most corrupt Chief Minister in the country and a Congress spokesman raised several serious allegations against Himanta and his wife.
Himanta himself has slammed the accusations as Pakistan-inspired, and the controversy is raging as we go to the press. Difficult to say the impact of it all, coming as they do so close to the polling day but the BJP is hoping they could head off the new charges by raising the communal pitch.
If Himanta still wins, it will not be just another state assembly victory for the saffron party, but a ringing endorsement of the “othering” of Muslims. The ‘Miyas’, whether you take the term to mean just Bengali Muslim immigrants or Muslims in general, had it, as it were.
In Uttar Pradesh, where Yogi Adityanath is firmly entrenched and elections are due in 2027, the BJP is likely to achieve a hat-trick as his governance wins broad acceptance from a majority of voters despite the persecution of minorities in various ways.
If at 53, Adityanath is seen as a potential successor to Modi, Sarma too is priming himself for the top job. Having originally been with the Congress, he seems to have embraced Hindutva enthusiastically, seeing in it a career accelerator inside the BJP – never mind whether it is a humane approach, or the troubles his actions will entail in a sensitive border state?
“It is not easy to deport them. Until they leave, they will face difficulties. They cannot live in Assam with ease. Till I am the Chief Minister, I will not spare any Bangladeshi. I will keep troubling them…” stated Himanta.
That was a virtual declaration of war on the hapless immigrants. Eviction drives under him are already said to have resulted in the demolition of thousands of homes, with some reports citing between 10,000 to 12,000 families affected. So here comes the Bulldozer Baba-II, following in the footsteps of the first Baba, Yogi Adityanath.
So when Himanta is re-elected, “Miyas” should be ready for much harsher times, with even the courts seemingly indifferent to their plight.
The Congress seemed to be in the running for a while when Gaurav Gogoi was made its Chief Ministerial face, and he went about his job avidly, earning considerable kudos for his performance in the Lok Sabha. But he could not hold the party together and antagonised seniors, some of them defecting to the BJP.
The Congress has cut itself asunder from the Muslim-centric All India United Democratic Front (AUDF), fearing Hindu backlash and is anyway fighting shy of speaking up for the minorities, except in vague terms.
But Narendra Modi won’t leave them in peace. In his election rallies, he has warned the people of Assam against a “dangerous communal violence law” that the Congress allegedly plans to introduce in the state, to target the “majority community” and “appease the minorities”.
When such baiting helps reap rich electoral harvests, why would he not?
Already, gerrymandering has meant assembly constituencies in which the Muslims may have a decisive say have been reduced to 24 from 35. The trend is likely to intensify, and it is Assam one should think of first when surveying the electoral scene now.
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee seems poised to return to power for the fourth time in a row, and it could be due to her welfare policies or aggressive cadres, or perhaps both.
Her victory though is not all that portentous, after all she has been part of the NDA under Vajpayee and is not to be counted as a reliable member of the secular opposition. That said, she won’t target Muslims much and might well align with a hardline Hindutva agenda nationally. And the BJP is emerging as the major opposition in the state, while the CPI(M) and the Congress are in shambles.
Down south in Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led front, of which the Congress is a constituent, is tipped to sweep the polls, despite the new challenge emerging in the form of actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). The NDA, powered by the AIADMK, might win a chunk of seats, still it doesn’t seem to figure much in the reckoning.
All the same the Congress cannot be too very happy – the hard bargain it sought to drive during seat-sharing talks seems to have left a bad taste all around, and even the personal chemistry between Stalin and Rahul Gandhi is said to have declined sharply, if not evaporated entirely.
If the Congress loses yet another national election, the DMK won’t hesitate to jump ship. Its commitment to secularism has always been dicey, remember Stalin’s father Karunanidhi had happily shared power with Vajpayee for almost the full five year term.
But as with Mamata, Stalin, or his putative successor, son Udhaya Nidhi, won’t encourage anti-Muslim sentiments. Emerging leader Vijay too is swearing on all gods that he won’t either.
In the Puducherry enclave the NDA, helped by long-time Chief Minister N Rangasamy, is likely to squeak through. As a commentator put it, “His simplicity veneer has worn thin. People have actually become disenchanted. But thanks to the endless internal bickering, the Congress is losing out. The Union Territory is virtually being gifted away by an obviously indifferent Rahul Gandhi.”
If the Congress is happily placed anywhere, it is in Kerala, reports say. In his first term, Pinarayi Vijayan was lauded for his governance, especially during the Covid times. But since then the sheen seems to have vanished.
In the last local body polls, it was the Congress-led UDF that posted a huge victory. Corruption charges and cadre arrogance seem to have dented the CPI(M)’s image a lot.
Still, for Rahul who had represented Wayanad earlier, it would be a pyrrhic victory of sorts. After all, what does he gain by besting a party that would anyway stand by the Congress, by secularism always uncompromisingly anti-BJP?
Even in 2019, it was a bad choice for him to have contested from Kerala, alienating a dependable ally. After all, the DMK would have happily accommodated him in Tamil Nadu.
Both arrogance and counsel from self-serving advisors were perhaps responsible for the Wayanad move. The Kerala lobby obviously wanted to strengthen its own position, never mind what happens at the national level.
Back in 2014 when corruption charges were mounting to Himalayan levels – some of them motivated fabrications – the Manmohan Singh government tried to dodge, not taking the issue head-on, thereby allowing Modi to preen himself as a savior. A decade later they let Nitish Kumar walk out of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in sheer pique. In 2002, Sonia Gandhi hastily withdrew her scorching “mouth ka saudagar” slogan in sheer fright—clearly the handiwork of the coterie around Sonia Gandhi and her son.
The very same guys who cannot win a single election anywhere, deriving their strength essentially from their proximity to the ruling family, and for whom national interest counts for little—names might change, but their character doesn’t.
It is not as if either Sonia or her children are saints, but whatever good intentions they might have are clearly neutralised by the agenda of those people.
Does Rahul Gandhi lack the drive needed for an opposition leader? Why wouldn’t he seek to build on an impressive performance in 2009 UP Lok Sabha elections – only 21 seats, but impressive given the party's decline there – or in 2024 when the SP-Congress alliance had the BJP squirming and denied them parliamentary majority.
Also recall that equally stunning show in the Hindutva laboratory itself, when the Congress came close to a majority in the Gujarat legislature in 2017, thanks to the tireless campaigns of Rahul Gandhi. Subsequently though he seemed to have ignored the state completely, and the Congress tally five years later was a pitiful 12 seats, and the BJP is once again running an unchallenged show there.
Whether UP or Gujarat, why does Rahul Gandhi so quickly lose interest, allowing himself to be distracted and eventually misled by vested interests?
After the 2014 rout, when Sonia Gandhi was fielding questions, Rahul was by her side, grinning broadly, inviting furious comments in the social media. His seeming arrogance or waywardness could derail the whole agenda of the Congress revival.
Well, state elections are not necessarily an indicator of what is likely to happen nationwide three years later. But the point is so much is at stake.
If Durandhar-2 is a monster hit, the bulldozer babas are having a rollicking time and communal narratives remain a staple of the ruling dispensation, secular formations don't stand much of a chance as institutions like the courts and the election commission cave in fast.
As noted analyst Yogendra Yadav lamented, not long ago, “We are not just losing elections — we are losing our country, we are losing our republic..”
TN Gopalan is a senior journalist based in Chennai. Views expressed are the author’s own.