India's southwest monsoon has entered an unusually weak phase after a poor start to the season, raising concerns over agriculture, water availability, and food prices. June recorded a rainfall deficit of nearly 40%, making it one of the driest Junes since records began, while July has also seen below-normal rainfall across large parts of the country.
At the same time, weather agencies across the world are warning that El Niño, a climate phenomenon linked to weaker Indian monsoons, has now developed and is expected to strengthen through late 2026 and early 2027. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has said there is a strong possibility that the event could become one of the strongest on record, while the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has projected an 85-98% probability that El Niño conditions will persist until March 2027.
The weak monsoon has already begun affecting kharif sowing, with the Union government identifying 315 vulnerable districts, including 111 with poor irrigation facilities. Economists have also warned that a prolonged rainfall deficit could push up food prices, slow economic growth, and affect rural incomes.
Here's what is happening.
What is El Niño and why does it affect India’s monsoon?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. It develops every two to seven years and typically lasts between nine and 12 months.
The warming weakens the Pacific trade winds and alters atmospheric circulation across the globe. Although it occurs thousands of kilometres away from India, these changes influence wind patterns that drive the Indian monsoon.
Typically, El Niño suppresses rainfall over South and Southeast Asia while bringing excessive rainfall to some parts of the Americas. For India, it often means weaker southwest monsoon rainfall, prolonged dry spells and higher temperatures.
This year, NOAA has confirmed that El Niño conditions have developed and could intensify significantly over the coming months. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather’s analysis suggests the current event could even surpass the major El Niño episodes of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 if current projections hold.
Meteorologists also distinguish between a regular El Niño and a “Super El Niño.” While there is no universally accepted technical definition, the term generally refers to exceptionally strong warming in the Pacific. The last Super El Niño events in 1997-98 and 2015-16 were associated with severe disruptions to weather and agriculture across many parts of the world.
Why has the monsoon weakened this year?
While El Niño is expected to play a major role this year, meteorologists say the current weakness in the monsoon is also linked to a “break monsoon” phase.
During a break monsoon, the monsoon trough — an elongated low-pressure belt that usually stretches across northern India — shifts northwards towards the Himalayan foothills. Rainfall then increases over the Himalayan region and the Northeast, while central, western, and peninsular India receive much less rain.
Scientists say three factors have combined to suppress rainfall:
the developing El Niño, which weakens the monsoon circulation;
an unfavourable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a moving system of winds and clouds that is currently suppressing rainfall over India; and
fewer low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal, which usually pull moisture inland and help revive monsoon activity.
The formation of only the second low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal this season in mid-July has raised hopes of a temporary revival in rainfall over eastern and central India. However, experts say this may not be enough to offset the longer-term effects of El Niño, whose influence on the monsoon generally intensifies as the climate pattern strengthens.
Can the Indian Ocean Dipole reduce El Niño’s impact?
Another important climate pattern to make a note of is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which measures differences in sea surface temperatures between the western Indian Ocean, near Africa, and the eastern Indian Ocean, near Indonesia.
A positive IOD strengthens moisture-bearing winds towards India and can enhance monsoon rainfall, while a negative IOD tends to suppress it. Because of this, meteorologists are closely watching whether a positive IOD develops later this year, as it could partly offset El Niño's effects.
One of the best-known examples of this occurred in 1997, when a strong positive IOD helped offset the effects of one of the strongest El Niño events on record, allowing India to avoid a severe drought.
This year, however, the IMD expects the IOD to remain largely neutral during much of the southwest monsoon season.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has said that only a strong positive IOD can substantially offset El Niño’s effects, adding that the IOD “cannot fully compensate” for a strong El Niño. Some international agencies, including Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, have indicated that a positive IOD could emerge later in the season, but there is considerable uncertainty over its strength.
What could a stronger El Niño mean for farmers, food prices, and the economy?
The biggest concern is agriculture.
India receives nearly three-fourths of its annual rainfall during the southwest monsoon, and more than half of the country's cultivated land remains rain-fed.
Weak monsoon rainfall can hurt the economy in three major ways:
reducing agricultural production,
lowering rural incomes and demand, and
increasing food inflation.
Some of these effects are already becoming visible.
The Union Agriculture Ministry has identified 315 vulnerable districts, including 111 districts with irrigation coverage below 25%, where farmers are especially dependent on rainfall.
A Down To Earth analysis found that 69 of these 111 high-priority districts are already recording deficient rainfall, while 12 have experienced rainfall deficits exceeding 60%.
The weak monsoon has also slowed kharif sowing. As of mid-July, sowing was around 16% lower than during the corresponding period last year, with rice among the crops recording slower progress.
Economists warn that lower production of rice, pulses, oilseeds, and vegetables could raise food prices and increase inflation. The Reserve Bank of India has also cautioned that an adverse monsoon could complicate India’s growth and inflation outlook.
The effects could spread beyond agriculture.
Lower rural incomes often reduce demand for tractors, two-wheelers, construction, and consumer goods. Some economists estimate that, if rainfall deficits persist and drought conditions develop, India’s GDP growth could take a modest hit.
Will all parts of India be affected equally?
No. El Niño does not affect every region in the same way.
Tamil Nadu is often an exception because it receives nearly 60% of its annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon between October and December, rather than the southwest monsoon.
Historically, many strong El Niño years, including 1997, 2015, and 2023, were associated with above-normal northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil Nadu.
However, scientists caution that the eventual outcome will still depend on other weather systems, including Bay of Bengal depressions, the IOD, and the MJO.
Beyond rainfall, El Niño could also affect marine ecosystems.
The INCOIS bulletin warns that prolonged El Niño conditions could intensify marine heatwaves, trigger coral bleaching, and alter fish populations and migration patterns across the northern Indian Ocean, potentially affecting fisheries.
Reports say that, globally, El Niño could also reduce production of cocoa, coffee, and sugar in several tropical countries, increasing commodity prices worldwide.
Is India better prepared than before?
Despite the concerns, experts say India is better placed to cope with a weak monsoon than it was a decade ago, thanks to stronger reservoir storage after several good monsoon years, improved weather forecasting, wider use of renewable energy, and greater investment in water conservation.
However, major structural challenges remain. More than half of India’s farmland still depends on rainfall, groundwater levels continue to decline in many regions, and irrigation remains inadequate in hundreds of districts. Experts say India will need sustained investment in irrigation infrastructure, drought-resistant crops, and long-term climate adaptation, rather than relying primarily on crop insurance and post-disaster relief.
Much will depend on how the monsoon performs over the next few weeks. A revival driven by Bay of Bengal weather systems or a stronger-than-expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole could reduce the impact of the current dry spell. But if El Niño continues to intensify without these counterbalancing factors, India could face a difficult second half of the monsoon season, with consequences extending far beyond the weather.