By Vinita Deshmukh Raj Thackeray, wounded grievously in the Lok Sabha elections, may have reasons to smile, but certainly is unable to have a last laugh. For, although the two major tie-ups, BJP-Shiv Sena who had been allied for 25 years and the Congress-NCP which kept themselves together for 15 years, have formally split for the impending Assembly elections scheduled for October 25th the moves are calculating and not without guile. Shiv Sena: On the face of it, Shiv Sena (SS) seems to have got it wrong. Its chief ministerial candidate, Uddhav Thackeray’s confidence to win large number of seats on its own, reeks of overconfidence and arrogance. Shiv Sena on its own has no idealogy except the `Marathi Manoos’ rhetoric that it continues to trumpet, although Uddhav Thackeray has been talking of sustainable development. However, its performance in Mumbai’s municipal corporation where it rules is dismal going by the condition of roads and other civic amenities. Also, loyalty of the Marathi people was more towards Balasaheb Thackeray his father Uddhav has not inherited that charisma. Also, urban cosmopolitan voters, voted for the BJP-SS alliance for the Lok Sabha elections. Many cannot identify themselves with brash SS politics. The post-election scenario where patch-ups and make-ups are expected with the BJP is the one to look out for. BJP: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP lead by Narenda Modi continues to make waves with his meticulous branding through interactions with heads of foreign countries including the USA and his `Make In India’ campaign that has created international waves. However, will the Modi effect percolate in the Maharashtra’s Assembly elections? BJP’s grassroot connections lesser than that of SS and most importantly, will the urban and educated middle class which came out in large numbers for the Lok Sabha elections, come out this time too? If not, then BJP could face a dent in several constituencies. Besides, BJP does not have a popular face for a Chief Minister. While Devendra Fadnavis remains on top, caste politics would interfere with any unanimous decision on him, as quietly the late Munde’s daughter, Pankaja, is not out of the radar, being of the OBC community. To conclude on the BJP-SS alliance, BJP which has being playing the second fiddle all along would like to take advantage of the Modi factor while SS would not like to be sidelined and so would like to assess its singular strength, going by the Lok Sabha performance for which it pats itself for the victory and its perceived sympathy wave in the first ever election, post Balasaheb Thackeray’s death.Congress-NCP: Both the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) continue to suffer from trust deficit by the voters, at large. Their chief ministerial candidate Ajit Pawar (nephew of NCP strongman Sharad Pawar) had remarked that he would urinate to fill dams in the state that was witnessing severe droughts. This at a time when the Rs.73,000 crore irrigation scam was pointing to his alleged involvement. As for the Congress, all its stalwart leaders including the former home minister Sushilkumar Shinde have bitten the dust, thus reflecting voter-sentiment. Most likely, the voters will continue to ignore both these parties as they have had enough of their corruption and non-governance.While NCP feels it has played the second fiddle for long despite being a stronger regional party and now has an upper edge as it won 4 seats in the Lok Sabha (more than the Congress) but no one’s listening to their squabbles. For the moment, this alliance is the most run down. However, with no single party slated to win a majority, they will come handy to make up the numbers for which Sharad Pawar has achieved mastery.MNS: As for MNS, will Nitin Gadkari knock at Raj Thackeray’s door once again? Frankly, the BJP is no mood to do so, as it hasn’t really had a bitter fight with the SS while moving away on its own. BJP will quietly watch the unfolding of the drama. As for Raj Thackeray, like his cousin, has begun talking about governance and development. Conventionally he is more preferred than Uddhav by the youth, so he could work himself to get back that loyalty.All in all, it is Advantage BJP for the moment, but we should not forget about the small alliances that are left in the dark – Ramdas Athavale of the Republican Party of India and Raju Shetty, Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana chief who are always pampered by major alliances. Both are inclined towards the BJP. Who will give them how many seats? With five cornered contests in most constituencies, which implies that more candidates could be standing for election, resulting in small-margin victories. Expect some surprising upsets and equally surprising wins. P.s: The increased use of NOTA during elections and horse trading post the elections, cannot be ruled out.